2008 Georgia Bulldogs

Expectations. Coach Mark Richt is entering his 7th season as head coach and this is by far his greatest challenge. At the same time, he may be coaching his most talented group yet. But they simply don’t come more even-keeled than Mark Richt.

That word, “expectations”, comes with the territory when your school ends the 2007 season in a magical way, with 8 straight wins, an improbable run of dominance that nearly (and should have) led to an appeance in the BCS championship game, but did lead to another trip for Mark Richt (a 3rd) to the AllState Sugar Bowl and a 41-10 thrashing of undefeated (but overmatched) Hawaii.

With 17 returning starters, Georgia leads the majority of the polls (including the CNN/USA Today Coaches’ & the Associated Press Poll) and heads into the season as the #1 ranked team in the country with not one, but two Heisman Trophy contenders.

Of course, along with trying to meet expectations (and for many Georgia fans, nothing less than the BCS Title game in Miami on January 9th, 2008 will meet those expectations), comes the toughest schedule in school history, which includes an early season road game at Arizona State, and a four game stretch, later in the season, that includes back to back games in Baton Rouge (at LSU) and in Jacksonville (at Florida).

Offense

Most of the main players from last year return to this group with the two most key players back being legitimate Heisman Trophy contenders. First, there’s Junior Quarterback Matthew Stafford. Second, there’s Redshirt Sophomore Running Back Knowshon Moreno, arguably the most electrifying player in the nation, who in the last few weeks, has graced the covers of The Sporting News, Sports Illustrated and ESPN the Magazine.

Along with Stafford and Moreno, the Dawgs return Senior Wide Receiver Mohammed Massaqoui,the best Fullback in college football, Brannan Southerland, (who starts the season out for at least the first 3-4 games) as well as Senior Tripp Chandler, who started slowly for the Dawgs in 2007, but came on in a big way and seems to be continuing the tradition of Georgia being “Tight End U.”

Last year, the offensive line had to be completely rebuilt and a down year was assumed with so many new faces. However, thanks to the amazing work of one of the best Offensive Line coaches in the country, Stacey Searels, the offensive line was one of the best in the country by the end of the season and that effort was led by Senior Fernando Velasco and Freshman Trinton Sturdivant. The problem? Velasco (the vocal leader on the line) is gone and Sturdivant, the huge left tackle expected to be this year’s leader, may now be out for the year, barring any positive changes in the medical report.

Even more now will be expected from the increased depth that Coach Richt and his staff (including Searels and offensive coordinator, Mike Bobo, have been working hard on) especially from RG Clint Boling (suspended for the first game, this weekend), Center Chris Davis, and LT Kiantee Tripp, who’s filling the role for injured Sturdivant and has the versatility to excel.

One of the questions any good fan base asks is what freshmen can come in & compete and contribute right away. Thanks to the masterful recruiting job the last several years by Coach Richt, recruiting (guru) coordinator Rodney Garner, and other members of the staff (especially Bobo), Georgia’s Freshman class was once again in the top 5-7 in the nation (depending on which recruiting service you prefer, I prefer the ones not run by Tennessee grads) and several freshmen may come in right away on the offense.

Starting in the backfield, Knowshon Moreno has no shortage of help. First, there’s phenom Caleb King. King, a redshirt Freshman who was the #1 RB recruit in the country when he came to the Dawgs in January of 2007. He’s so big and talented that despite having a serious Heisman contender in Moreno, the Dawgs will be forced to get him in there. Of course, they may have both share time with one of two Freshmen sensations: Richard Samuel and Carlton Thomas, both of whom have exceeded the already big expectations they had, with commanding spring practice performances.

At wide receiver, the Dawgs lost talented veteran, Sean Bailey, but are loaded with veteran help for Senior Mossaquoi, but maybe no one will be more help than Freshman sensation, AJ Green. Along with Alabama’s Julio Jones, Green was the other top wide receiver recruit in the nation, and has already blown his peers away in practice.

Along the offensive line, the Dawgs added a lineman who’s performed so well so early (Ben Jones) Georgia may be forced to play the young man early. Depth is key with injuries and a few suspensions already getting in the way here early.

And though they won’t be in Athens until they arrive in the 2009 class, Georgia has already landed 2 of the top 8 Quarterbacks in the nation for next year: Zack Mettenberger. and Florida’s Aaron Murray. The staff continues to fill the ranks with talented stars keeping Georgia in contention, year in and year out.

Defense

If you think the offense is loaded with stars and firepower, meet the 2008 Georgia Bulldogs defensive unit. This is arguably the fastest defensive unit in the nation, and the same unit that sacked Florida golden boy Tim Tebow 6 times (on his way to a Heisman.) Another Heisman contender, Hawaii’s Colt Brennan, looked like a Division III scrub after our defense was done beating the heck out of him in the Sugar Bowl. Interestingly, Brennan sought Tebow out for advice at the Heisman ceremony in New York about Georgia’s defense. Tebow must have explained how to properly eat grass every time one of our guys plants you in it.

Leading the defense will be Linebacker Darnell Ellerbee, a special and fast hitter, who seems to play his best in the biggest games. But Ellerbee has a LOT of help – to say the least. Georgia only lost one starter from 2007 (Marcus Howard, who was terrific) but bring back a veteran crew of talented players, many of whom will be on the All America watch list.

Along with Ellerbee, linebackers Akeem Dent and Rennie Curran — a small but super fast hitter — who came on late and punished opposing offenses with his quickness and striking ability. Along the line, another powerful group of dangerous veterans return for the Dawgs. Leading the way is Senior DT Jeff Owens, who’s considered a potential major breakout star this year and who — according to the AJC — will be a contender for the Outland and Nagurski awards. Several players will be teaming up with Owens to smash opponents, and none more so than Junior DT Geno Atkins, also a legitimate contender during the awards season.

The secondary is just loaded as well. The leader of this unit is Junior Asher Allen, who came into his own last year and is now one of the most feared cornerbacks in the nation, giving opposing wide receivers nightmares. Teaming with Allen in this talented unit will be Free Safety Reshard Jones, the other leader of this group as only a redshirt Sophomore.

The leader of the unit is defensive coordinator Willie Martinez. Martinez has experienced his share of growing pains, but grew up with the defense after last year’s embarrassing loss to Tennessee. Martinez led the defense the rest of the way to arguably the best performance by any team in the country, the last 8 games, finally, fully, earning the confidence of Dawg Nation. For a long time, many Dawg fans missed the intensity of former DC Brian Van Gorder. Martinez seems to have finally come into his own and has a chance now to be one of the best coordinators in the country.

Special Teams

The kicking game, arguably the most important part for any team trying to win close games (and Georgia will have many this year with their schedule), lost a kid with potentially the strongest leg in America, Brandon Coutu. Coutu will be missed, but Freshman Blair Walsh showed off an incredibly strong leg during spring, and Coach Richt appears to have full confidence in Walsh ably filling Coutu’s shoes.

Returning to lead the punting is proven senior Brian Mimbs, who showed himself a smart distance kicker last year.

The big question is, among the various speedsters Georgia has to choose from, who will take super fast and shifty Mikey Henderson’s place to return punts. Along with Henderson’s graduation, senior tailback Thomas Brown (now with the Falcons) was the leading kick returner and will also have to be replaced.

Asher Allen got a lot of experience returning kicks last year and will be back in that role, more often than not. As of the end of spring practice, rumors (and now possibly fact) at who will now be returning punts, Mark Richt has apparently decided that his team’s best all around player, running back and Heisman contender Knowshon Moreno, may just be the man for the job. And why not? Considering how many defenses Moreno destroyed last year, getting the ball in his hands as often as possible seems like a pretty good idea.

Outlook

Well, if everything goes according to plan, we should go 12-0, roll through this schedule and after blowing out LSU or Auburn in the SEC Championship game, roll through Ohio State (like everyone else in the SEC) , USC, or Oklahoma in the National championship game.

But wait, we do have to now deal with the hardest schedule in the nation and no matter how biased I am and how much I love my Dawgs, I don’t see how we can run the table, unblemished. I am a realist.

The scariest game on the schedule (as always) will be Florida. The Gators return Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow and a 2nd contender for that award in Percy Harvin, and have generated faux anger over our end zone celebration, as written about by Urban Meyer in “Urban’s Way”, a self help book for all Gators who couldn’t get over losing to us in 2007. And though I make fun, this game (IMHO) is the toughest game on the schedule. The Gators are loaded and our best opponent.

You look at games like at Arizona State or at LSU, where we are the better team, but based on the timing of the game, the travel involved, or the location, and the better team may lose. LSU is dropped a little in my eyes with the loss of Quarterback Ryan Perrilloux. Auburn is also another big time rivalry game and they are expected to be a top 20 level team, and a new Quarterback actually helps them – the Dawgs will deeply miss slow-moving target Brandon Cox.

Then, there’s also games with South Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. All games the Dawgs should win and are clearly the better team on paper, but all teams capable of beating us in the ever tough Southeastern Conference.

In the end, I will say 11-1 and I believe in Mark Richt and I believe in this team, and despite a loss somewhere along the way (yes, maybe Jacksonville), the Dawgs will make all of us Georgia fans believe and head to Miami to play for the BCS championship. Of course, this caveat always depends on good health, which is why it’s so important that Georgia is blessed with wonderful depth.

–Alex R.

2008 Ole Miss Rebels

Football season is actually exciting again in Oxford for the first time since about ‘04. The Rebels actually have the chance to be interesting again thanks to a legitimate coach coming in and replacing the worst head coach in the SEC in at least 30 years. Ed Orgeron made Brad Scott want to dust off his resume.

Offense

At quarterback the Rebels plan to start a highly rated transfer who played well as a freshman at a large public university that goes by “UT.” If this sounds familiar, its because it was tried in 2006 with Tennessee transfer Brent Schaeffer. With horrid results.

Enter Texas transfer Jevan Snead. Jevan is still a great mystery to me. I wasn’t overly impressed at the spring game with a very bland offense and little blitzing he’s timing seemed off with the wide receivers. He’s still looked better than any quarterback the Rebels have started since Eli Manning. Snead’s had a great fall camp according to the rave reviews of Houston Nutt and offensive coordinator Kent Austin. Thanks to Orgeron’s inability to sign quarterbacks he’s really all the Rebels have. If Snead gets hurt there’s only Billy Tapp (not likely to ever take a meaningful snap) or true freshman Nathan Stanley (who played last season at a Indian tribal school in Oklahoma going against pretty weak competition.)

The Rebels do return numerous lettermen at wide receiver. Shay Hodge is the best position receiver, Mike Wallace is the deep threat, and the diminutive Dexter McCluster is the elusive slot back that will play qb some in the “wild rebel formation.” (Honestly, I hate that name.) Markeith Summers is expected to also get extended playing time. While the group is overall solid none of the receivers would be labeled as an elite receiver. Tight end is in a desperate shape as all the Rebels have is a converted offensive tackle and a juco transfer. Look for the juco, Gerald Harris, to start by default.

Luckily David Cutcliffe left a few linemen behind for running game guru Mike Markusson. The starting Offensive line is pretty good. Left tackle is anchored by preseason All American Michael Oher. John Jerry moves from right guard to right tackle and looks to be a solid NFL prospect as well. Mo Miller and Reid Neely are returning starters in the guard slots. Center looks to be manned by junior Daverin Geralds and should be solid. Rishaw Johnson and sixth year senior Daryll Harris are solid guard backups. Other than that though its a huge drop off since the former coach who was better adapt to work on a shrimp boat couldn’t recruit offensive lineman.

The running back position is one of the few with real depth. Cordera Eason had a superb spring game and a solid fall camp and looks to be the starter this fall. However he has little game experience (9 carries) since Orgeron preferred to play BenJarvis Green Ellis despite the fact that the players routinely said Eason looked better in practice. Eason looked awesome in the spring game showing the ellusive speed Green-Ellis never could by breaking off a few long touchdown runs. Backups who have gotten good reviews in fall camp include Derrick Davis, Brandon Bolden, and last recruiting season’s top prize Enrique Davis.

Throw in Markuson’s known ability for great running games, the starting o-line, Eason, and biggest rated signee ever Enrique Davis, and its hard to see the Rebels not having a solid running game. If Snead lives up the hype and the receivers play well the Rebels could have a surprisingly decent offense.

Defense

The Rebel’s will surprisingly have one of the best defensive lines in the country. About the only thing Orgeron could do was get defensive linemen on campus. The rest of his recruiting was largely on paper but here he did a great job and we actually have more quality depth than most teams in the country. The Rebels have taken a few shots at this depth during fall camp but luckily the bulk of the injuries have occurred here. Pre-Season all sec pick Greg Hardy went down with a stress fracture in his foot and will miss six to eight weeks. He’ll be back just in time for the bulk of the SEC part of the schedule. Marcus Tillman can start at either defensive tackle, like he did as a freshman, or defensive end, like he did as a sophomore, and is a superb run stopper. Kentrell Lockett is better than most backups and will start while Hardy’s out. Emmanuel Stephens, a pass rushing specialist, and Chris Bowers give further quality depth at end. At tackle the Peria Jerry is also banged up some but looks to play. Ted Laurent was slated to start but hurt his knee. Luckily it occurred early and after a scope he looks like he’ll play against Memphis after all. 57 year old true freshman Jerrell Powe was also cleared to play. We were good without Powe but mix him in and it can get dangerously good once he gets going. Lawon Scott provides further depth and Justin Sanders provides the cockfighting angle. True freshman Justin Smith and Gerald Rivers had great fall camps and may or may not get to see some action.

Unfortunately after the line it drops of a bit. The projected starters are Ashlee Palmer at weakside, Jonathan Cornell at middle, and Allen Walker at strongside. Cornell started the first two games last year before going down to injury against Missouri and receiving a medical redshirt. Walker was highly recruited but yet to reach his potential. Ashlee Palmer was a juco transfer last year who played well. Backing up Cornell is juco transfer Tony Fein, who finished the year last year as the starter and is a great run stopper but struggles against spread teams. Former Auburn player Patrick Trahan is backing up the other two positions and looks to get a lot of playing time.

Houston Nutt has listed the secondary as the weak point of the team and what needs the most improvement. Last season the Rebels were one of the worst teams in turnover margin and interceptions. To help he moved two offensive players, Marshay Green and Jeremy MacGee, to cornerback and both look to be the backups. Starters look to be Doustin Mouzon and Cassius Vaughn. Jamarca Sanford returns to start at strong safety for the fourth straight year. Either Kendrick Lewis or Johnny Brown will start at free safety. The Rebels have little depth beyond nickel back Terrell Jackson.

So I’d expect the Rebels to struggle on defense against the spread passing and other good passing teams but perfom better stopping the run. So its good Missouri goes off the schedule.

Special Teams

The kicking game will more than likely be horrid unless the freshman kickoff guy from North Carolina, Bryson Rose, shows up and finds a way to kick it beyond the thirty five yard line. Field position routinely killed the Rebels last year. Whichever of the three scholarship punters wins the job they don’t look to improve much over last years last place in the league. Junior place kicker Joshua Shene suffered through a down year last season but it was subsequently reveled that he was kicking with a torn hamstring that Orgeron refused to let him rest during practice instead preferring for him to perform in drills with the position players. Hopefully he can rebound to freshman form where he was dead on from mid range inwards.

For a team with five kickers on scholarship they have little to show for it.

Schedule
Its a huge swing year because it could vary greatly between best achievable results and worst achievable. For example last year I wrote that best we could hope for was 6-6 but that was unlikely and I actual prediction was 2-10. I wasn’t far off. This year I think 8-4 best case and 4-8 worst case.

Biggest reason for that is they have no depth. The Rebels are one or two critical injuries away from the entire season falling apart. Nutt can’t let one of the offensive tackles, linebackers, fullbacks, tightends or Snead get hurt. Subpart to the lack of depth is some teams will wear Ole Miss down just by greater numbers. Specifically Florida, Auburn, & LSU will present a great disadvantage to the Rebels and its hard to see them winning any of those games. Additionally the Rebels are cursed in Tuscaloosa so its hard to predict that as a win. Wake is the most obvious loss to me. They are too efficient and its the second game. If was later in the year I’d give Ole Miss a better chance.

So where does that lead the Rebels. Throw in that Nutt finds a way to win a big game every year that he has no business winning. So I think he could find a way to win one of the Auburn, LSU or Alabama games. I don’t know which one. Auburn’s at home, Ole Miss always shows up for LSU because they are the biggest rival and Nutt usually finds a way to give them a good game. Orgeron took Bama down the line the last three years so maybe the addition of Nutt could push them over the edge. I wouldn’t count on one of those though.

I don’t see Nutt who’s never lost to Croom and only lost to Mississippi State once in ten years loosing the Egg Bowl at home. Plus I’d expect State to take a huge step back this year as they had one of the luckiest seasons imaginable. Plus their spring game had to go into over time so that they could have one side score a point to break a 0-0 tie. If Orgeron can go 3-0 against Memphis, a coaching staff comprised of the Braves Journal top ten posters could. Samford and La Monroe should be gimmies. Vandy is still Vandy and its at home. They may have more depth but not as much elite talent. South Carolina is the big flip game. They will be better and the Rebels need to win it at home. I don’t think Nutt will let himself loose to Arkansas on the first return trip. He’ll have too much inside info on the team and has plays drawn up that he knows will hurt their personnel. Plus you know he’s got that one circled.

So I’ll go 7-5 and a trip to Memphis for the Liberty Bowl if the key players stay healthy.

–George

2008 South Carolina Gamecocks

Offense

Steve Spurrier’s offense has been caught up with by SEC defensive coordinators. The past 3 years, it has been a decent but unspectacular group. Spurrier is even giving some of the playcalling duties to his son, Steve Spurrier Jr., but he plans to oversee the offense and spend more time coaching the quarterbacks.

Quarterback

Tommy Beecher, a junior and long-time backup, was named the starting QB after having the best spring practice on the team. Accounts are that he has the best arm on the team and has decent mobility, and that he continued having good practices in the fall. He is extemely intelligent and has been in the system the longest out of the other quarterbacks, so he gives USC the best chance. Sophomore Chris Smelley was 4-2 as a starter last year and is a capable backup. The position is a question mark because of a lack of experience but the talent is there to do well.

Runningback

Mike Davis, an experienced senior, is the unquestioned starter. He is a solid if not flashy back. He doesn’t have breakaway speed, but near the goal line he always finds a way to get into the end zone. He should move into the top 10 USC leaders in career rushing yardage after the season. Brian Maddox, a talented but untested sophomore is the primary backup.

Wide Receiver

Senior Kenny McKinley is a potential All-American, and has a shot at breaking a ton of records including career receptions (school and the SEC), career receiving yards, and career touchdown receptions. Speedy junior Moe Brown has always had trouble catching the ball in games but shows out in practice. He did play better at the end of the season, and could have a breakout 2008. Sophomore Dion LeCorn emerged as the #2 receiver at the end of last season but hasn’t done as well in the spring and fall as Brown. Freddie Brown, a junior, usually catches what gets to him but he has trouble running good routes and getting open. Jason Barnes, Joe Hills, and Matt Clements are all talented young players looking for some playing time as well.

Tight End

USC has potentially both of the best two receiving tight ends in the conference, junior Jared Cook and sophomore Wesyle Saunders. Cook is 6′5, 245 lbs, and can fly. He could enter the draft and be a 1st or 2nd round pick after the season. Saunders is a huge player–actually recruited as a DE–and is very fast for his size. If the WRs other than McKinley have trouble stepping up, Beecher can look to these guys for help.

Offensive Line

This is the biggest question mark on the team. They were the primary reason that the Gamecocks were dead last in the SEC in rushing yardage and that Gamecock quarterbacks had to hurry to get rid of the football. They could make or break the 2008 season. In 2007, only 2 lineman started all 12 games, and those 2 are returning senior tackles Jamon Meredith and Justin Sorenson. They were adequate at best last year. Heath Batchelor, a sophomore, emerged as the starting right tackle at the end of the season. The other spots appear to be a revolving door, although they seem to be improving in practice as some of the younger players are developing.

Defense

Ellis Johnson is the new defensive coordinator after coming over from Mississippi State. He inherits a very talented defense that could be one of the top groups in the conference. The key will be stopping the run, as this was one of the major reasons for the 5 game collapse at the end of last season. Johnson has been using a 4-2-5 defense to help counter the spread and plans to use it as his base defense.

Defensive Line

Sophomore Cliff Matthews, a very talented player, will start at defensive end. He played outside linebacker last year just so he could get on the field. He will likely have a breakout year. Jordin Lindsey will return from academic problems to start at the other side in his last year of eligibility. He is a solid but unspectacular player. At defensive tackle, Ladi Ajiboye won accolades as a freshman and will man one of the spots. Nathan Pepper returns from a knee injury to start at the other tackle position. This should be a pretty solid group.

Linebacker

This could be one of the top linebacker cores in the nation, if the players are not too heavy. There are two All-American candidates here: senior Jasper Brinkley and junior Eric Norwood. Brinkley is returning from a knee injury and Norwood is making a switch from DE. Both players weigh in the mid 260’s, so speed may be a bit of a concern. However, both players have a reputation for being all over the field, and with the new Spur position on defense, they may not need to worry about covering any receivers. Rodney Paulk, who had started 22 games in his first 2 years, and Gerrod Sinclair are more than capable reserves.

Spur

This is the new position that is being used in the 4-2-5 defense. It is a sort of hybrid LB/S role. Junior Darian Stewart, last year’s starting FS, is pencilled in here. Stewart is a good tackler and a solid cover player. He will be backed up by former WR Larry Freeman and true freshman Antonio Allen.

Cornerback

The Gamecocks’ defensive secondary was one of the top rated groups in the country in 2007, and has everyone returning. Captain Munnerlyn, one of the top CBs in the SEC, returns to shut down one half of the field. Seniors Carlos Thomas and Stoney Woodson are both solid players and will split time playing the other corner position and the nickel. Sophomore Addison Williams and true freshman Akeem Auguste are talented young players who provide depth.

Free Safety

Chris Culliver, the fastest player on the team, was recently named the starter here. The sophomore was ranked 3rd in average kickoff return yardage in the SEC last year, and all accounts are that he can hit. Backing up the former 5 star recruit will be redshirt freshman Mark Barnes, a talented player in his own right.

Strong Safety

Junior Emanuel Cook terrorizes any receiver coming across the middle. He can put a nasty hit on anyone. With the Gamecocks’ struggles stopping the run last year, he was the leading tackler on the team in 2007. Cook may be the top SS in the conference. He will be backed up by junior Chris Hail.

Special Teams

After several blocked punts at the end of the season and continued problems with coverage, Spurrier brought in coach Ray Richleski from Maryland. Maryland traditionally had one of the top ST units in the country. Richleski stresses playing assignments. He will get lots of help from senior placekicker Ryan Succop, a kicker with a strong leg who is a Groza candidate. Culliver will be the primary kick returner and Munnerlyn is the primary punt returner. Bad field position has been a big problem for USC over the years, and look for better starting field position this year.

Outlook

I’m not going to make any predictions here, but instead I will list sure wins, probable wins, toss-ups, and probable losses in this year’s schedule. 8-4 would be a realistic record for the year.

Sure Wins
Wofford
UAB

Probable Wins
NC State
Vanderbilt
Ole Miss
Kentucky
Arkansas

Toss-ups
Tennessee
Clemson

Probable Losses
Georgia
LSU
Florida

-Braves14

2008 Alabama Crimson Tide

The Saban Era began little different than the Shula Era ended — with a 6-6 regular season and an Independence Bowl trip. This time, the Tide left glamorous Shreveport with a win, which is progress of a sort. The team suffered from some of the same problems as in 2006, in particular a tendency to start strong and finish poorly both in games and in the season as a whole — which again ended with a losing streak in November. The offseason was marked by both a top-ranked recruiting class and by embarrassing off-field incidents, in particular the discovery that runningback-turned-linebacker Jimmy Johns was a major cocaine dealer.

Offense

As has been the case the last two years, most of the returning experienced talent is on offense; Shula, an offensive coach, recruited much more strongly on that side of the ball and essentially left the defense in the hands of his coordinator. Jim McElwain comes over from Fresno to take over the offensive coordinator job. He supposedly will stress a more ball-control oriented passing game than predecessor Major Applewhite, but the offense probably won’t change too much; it’s more Saban’s offense than anyone’s.

Senior John Parker Wilson is the unquestioned quarterback, even though he regressed last season. Fans called for his head several times, in particular after the embarrassing Louisiana-Monroe loss, but Saban indicated that none of the other quarterbacks on the roster was remotely capable of playing. One of those quarterbacks, sophomore Greg McElroy, seems to have settled in as the backup and is garnering praise from the coaches for the first time. Saban has said that he won’t use touted freshman Star Jackson in a running package (ala Tim Tebow in his freshman year, or Ryan Perrilloux last year) and his chances of playing basically come down to waiting for Wilson to get hurt.

Runningback was a problem area last year. Terry Grant played well early on, but was slowed by a “sports hernia” (I am not convinced that this is a real thing yet; it just seems to have started happening a few years ago) late in the season, and is considered too small for an every-down role or between-the-tackles running anyway. Glen Coffee was the other primary ballcarrier early in the season, but was suspended for a rules violation beginning with the Tennessee game. After that game (in which Grant shone) the Tide basically had no running game to speak of, and Wilson couldn’t carry the offense on his own. This year Alabama is expected to use Grant in a “scatback” role, trying to get him the ball outside the tackles, with Coffee and someone else, such as true freshman Mark Ingram (son of the former Giant) sharing the Mr. Inside role. Like most plans, this probably won’t survive contact with the enemy. Coffee will apparently be the “starter”; he doesn’t really do anything well, but does everything okay. As many as six different backs could share carries in various alignments.

Last year’s receiving corps was basically DJ Hall (holder of virtually every school receiving record) and a couple of other seniors, so this year’s staff will be mostly new. Junior Mike McCoy started most of the time but was wildly unproductive, catching a variety of short passes, none of which he seemed to break for significant yardage; he was more valuable as a downfield blocker than a receiver. He has practiced well and is the one given in this year’s corps. The jewel in the recruiting crown, Julio Jones, will play some role; he’s already dazzled everyone in practice and is on a different physical level than everyone else. Other than McCoy, the only returnee with significant playing time is senior Nikita Stover, but he seems to have been swamped by a sea of newcomers and little-used underclassmen. The Tide will probably use a three-receiver set as its base offense, and cycle through five or six receivers most of the time; I would guess that in addition to McCoy and Jones, sophomores Darius Hanks and Earl Alexander, redshirt freshman Marquis Maze, and true freshman BJ Scott will be prominent. Hanks was the starter in the slot role in spring, but both Maze and Scott have worked there this fall. For seemingly the 25th year in a row, coaches have promised to get the tight end more involved in the offense; seniors Nick Walker and Travis McCall will share time, and both will be on the field on a high percentage of snaps, with McCall often playing a lead blocker or H-back role in place of a fullback.

The offensive line returns four starters, though it wasn’t until fairly late in the process that their exact alignment became clear. Junior Andre Smith, an Outland candidate and the team’s best player, was always a lock at left tackle, where he’s started every game the last two years. Antoine Caldwell, another all-conference performer, will play center, at least to begin with; he’s played every line position but left tackle the last two years. Fellow senior Marlon Davis is the right guard; he and Caldwell were suspended in the same textbook scandal that took out Coffee last year, and the absence of the team’s second- and third-best offensive linemen, together with the lack of depth this caused, was a prime motivator in the late-season collapse. Junior Mike Johnson was the right tackle most of last year, but is better suited inside, and will start at left guard. Right tackle has been a revolving door and a horror show for the last few seasons. Junior Drew Davis won the job in the spring and it’s hoped he’ll settle the position. Depth on the line remains a concern; a warning sign would be if Caldwell starts moving around again. Junior Evan Cardwell, who has mostly played center and started about half the time last year, is the most experienced reserve. As everywhere, there are talented freshmen who could see playing time, led by tackle Tyler Love.

Defense

Saban went with a 3-4 scheme last year partly out of necessity (a lack of experience and depth on the defensive line) and partly out of desire. He still doesn’t have quite the talent to work with, but is getting there; the biggest problem is to get any sort of pass rush from the front seven. Three players who started last year — NT Lorenzo Washington and ends Bobby Greenwood and Brandon Deaderick — return on the line, though the team’s best lineman, Wallace Gilberry, has graduated. Only Deaderick, who displaced Greenwood roughly halfway through the season and this year takes over at Gilberry’s RE spot, really has 3-4 lineman size. The mountainous Terrance Cody, a JUCO transfer, certainly does (he weighed nearly 400 pounds when he hit campus, though he’s down to about 365 now) and has apparently won the starting job at nose tackle, displacing Washington to end. Redshirt freshman Josh Chapman will back up Cody and probably play nearly as much. A number of freshmen and little-played sophomores are likely to get time, with true freshman end Marcel Dareus perhaps the man to watch; the team still lacks experienced depth here, as it does almost everywhere.

Linebacker looked to be a strong spot of the defense coming off of last season, but when fall came only sophomore middle linebacker Rolando McClain was left from last year’s unit. In addition to Jones, who was fighting for a first team spot prior to his arrest, returning OLB Zeke Knight saw his career end due to a heart ailment, and junior ILB Prince Hall, who much of last year was in the doghouse for both off-field and on-field disciplinary issues, didn’t participate in spring practice. He’s returned to the team, but has been suspended for the first three games, and who knows if he’ll stay on Saban’s good side when he’s reinstated. Outside of McClain, nothing is yet settled. Two true freshmen, Jerell Harris and Don’ta Hightower, have worked with the first team at times this fall, and it now appears that Hightower will start the opener at the weak inside position. McClain was pretty much the team’s best linebacker when he stepped on campus, bigger, faster, and more skilled than anyone else, and it’s hoped that Hightower will have a similar impact. Junior Brandon Fanney did some work with the first team early on, but is not secure in his job by any means. Junior Cory Reamer, a converted safety, seems likely to play somewhere, depending upon where the weakest spot is, though he’s more a cover man than tackler or playmaker. Little-used junior Eryk Anders and sophomore Chavis Williams are also in the mix.

The secondary, in contrast, appears set, at least its starters. Cornerback Kareem Jackson started every game as a freshman, and by the end of the season was clearly the team’s best cover man. Senior strong safety Rashad Johnson led the team in tackles and interceptions, and was first-team All-SEC. Javier Arenas, primarily a return man his first two seasons, won the starting job opposite Jackson in the spring, and hasn’t yet been pushed; he’s on the small side, but is obviously athletic and tackles well. Only junior FS Justin Woodall seems in any danger of losing his job before the season, but he too hasn’t yet been pushed. Juniors Marquis Johnson and Chris Rogers appear to be the top backups at corner, and junior Ali Sharrief at safety. As usual on this team, any number of true freshmen are likely to compete for playing time, most prominently corner Alonzo Lawrence and safety Mark Barron. Expect a lot of five- and six-DB sets, even at times when it doesn’t seem strictly warranted; last year, blitzing DBs were needed to supplement the pass rush, and the lack of good backups in the front seven meant that resting the starters basically required using d-backs. When Alabama goes into the nickel, either Arenas will slide over to the “star” slot corner position as the departed Simeon Castille did, with Johnson presumably playing outside, or Barron will enter to take the nickel spot.

Special Teams

Say what you will about Saban (got that out of your system? Good.) but he made a good call on placekicker Leigh Tiffin. Tiffin was widely lambasted for his choketastic performance in 2006 against Arkansas, but Saban gave him the regular job anyway, and he was terrific in 2007, hitting 25 of 34 fieldgoals and all his PATs, plus handling kickoffs. Punter P.J. Fitzgerald is not very good, but hasn’t been an active weakness, and seems secure in his job.

Arenas should continue as the primary punt returner and one of two kickoff returners. The other spot may go to any of several candidates, with Maze perhaps the frontrunner.

Outlook

This is a “bad schedule” year, with the Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU games all on the road. Together with a trip to Georgia, and a neutral-site game with Clemson, the schedule’s pretty rugged, and arguably would require upsets to finish better than 6-6 again. On the other hand, last year’s team was able to beat UT (handily) and led both LSU and Georgia late before running out of gas. Just as important will be avoiding the upset bug themselves and embarrassing losses like ULM last year, or Mississippi State the last two. The probation-related depth issues of previous years, largely responsible for the many, many blown leads of the last two seasons, aren’t quite solved, but Alabama at last has a full complement of scholarship players.

It seems likely that early in the season, the Tide will depend upon the offense to carry the load, with hopefully the defense catching up by midseason. Saban’s defense really requires more players than he had to work with last year; as the freshmen get up to speed, he should finally have that. This is still a building process, but I expect some progress. The team could be greatly improved and not see it show up in its record, but I think 8-4 and a bid to the Peach Bowl (nobody’s paying me to name it after a fast-food franchise) seems reasonable.

UPDATE 8/25: Depth chart announced, with Jones, Cody, and Hightower all starters. Jones will also team with Arenas on kickoffs. A minor surprise is McCall ahead of Walker at tight end, but that’s largely semantics: both will play, probably about the same number of snaps, and both will be on the field together maybe 30 percent of time. The transfer of Nick Fanuzzi makes it slightly more likely that Star Jackson will play.

2008 Vanderbilt Commodores

So, I predicted a bowl berth for the Commodores last season—a season in which they had 5 seniors starting on the offensive line and one of the best defenses in the country—but it didn’t happen. I really should have known better. I guess I’ll repeat what I’ve been able to say for the past 3 seasons now: No player on Vanderbilt’s roster was alive the last time the university’s football team appeared in a Bowl Game, the storied 1982 Hall of Fame Bowl against the storied Air Force Falcons. (Many tenured professors on Vanderbilt’s faculty had not yet come into existence the last—and only—time the Commodores won a bowl game, in 1955.)

That said, it—a bowl appearance and perhaps even a bowl victory—is going to happen soon, and it’s going to be directly attributable to Bobby Johnson, whom I’m convinced is absolutely the right coach for this school and team. Unfortunately for long-suffering Vanderbilt fans, it just isn’t going to happen this season.

Offense

Most teams’ successes start with—and last season’s Vanderbilt squad’s successes ended with—quarterback play, which should once again be the deciding factor in the Commodores’ season. RS senior Chris Nickson, who, after what seemed like a breakout sophomore campaign, even being named to the pre-season All-Conference Third Team by SEC coaches last year, battled injury (most prominently, a separated throwing shoulder suffered on the second play of the game against Alabama) and various forms of suck in a disappointing junior season, will almost certainly be the starter this year, although that’s yet to be announced by the coaches. Nickson is, theoretically, a dual-threat quarterback, capable of running and throwing, and accumulating yardage in both areas in bunches. Nickson’s primary back-up will be RS junior Mac Adams, who proved last year in filling in for Nickson at various points that he will neither hurt nor help a team win in the SEC. He’s completely unspectacular in every respect, but at least he’s not as likely to have a kill-the-team-all-by-himself game as Nickson is. If Nickson’s hurt or ineffective again this season, the offense will likely belong to Adams. Competing for third-string duties are RS sophomore Jared Funk, who has the best arm but worst football IQ of the group, and RS freshman Larry Smith, whom both coaches and fans hope will emerge to become the starting QB beginning in 2009.

At tailback, RS junior Jared Hawkins has emerged as the clear starter. Hawkins is shifty and has shown flashes of the ability to actually gain positive yardage on a regular basis, but he’s had some injury problems the past couple of seasons, so durability is an issue. Backing him up and likely getting most of the short-yardage and goal-line carries will be RS senior Jeff Jennings, a team leader but a guy who’s never regained the step or two he lost after a knee injury two years ago. Also getting carries will be RS sophomores Gaston Miller, a tiny, change-of-pace back who’s said to have the ability to make people miss in space, and Kennard Reeves, who’s bigger but is basically Just Some Guy. RS freshman Ryan Van Rensburg, a prized recruit who is said to be very Jacob Hester-esque, will also see some carries in short yardage and in single-back sets. If Vanderbilt used a Fullback, he’d fill that role, and if he didn’t have hands of stone, he’d play a lot at H-Back. So, there’s that. (RS freshman Jermaine Doster, younger brother of the late Kwane Doster, has been suspended for the season for getting into an altercation and busting out a police car window outside a club just a few yards from where his brother was shot and killed a few years ago. In at least one respect, Vanderbilt really does appear to be narrowing the gap between itself and the rest of the SEC.)

Even after losing Earl Bennett to the NFL and speedster Alex Washington to season-ending knee surgery, there’s a lot of talent at wide receiver—if anyone can get the ball to these guys, Vanderbilt might actually have the makings of an offense. The top two guys will be inspirational 6th-Year senior George Smith (who is expected to return from a stress fracture in his foot by the conference opener at home against South Carolina), a big, reliable target who always seems to be open, and RS senior Sean Walker, the team’s primary deep threat. Also logging a significant number of snaps will be RS junior Justin Wheeler and RS senior Andrew Diamonde (in his first and only year of eligibility for the Commodores after transferring from Clemson). True freshman John Cole, a real speedster ideal for the slot, and RS freshman Udom Umoh could also see time, depending on how they progress. It will also be interesting to follow the progress of RS freshman Jamie Graham, possibly the best athlete and most coveted piece of the 2007 signing class, who, after walking on and logging minutes as a reserve point guard for the Commodores’ basketball team last Spring, has been moved from defensive back to wide receiver and could also see a lot of time in the slot.

At tight end/H-back, the Commodores have at least four players who could see snaps. Vanderbilt lost its most reliable blocker for that role when Brad Allen, last year’s starter, decided to forego his final year of eligibility, having earned his degree last Spring, but his replacements are all considered more dangerous offensive weapons. Reliable RS junior Jake Bradford is the most experienced and was expected to be the starter, but thus far, it appears as though he’s been passed on the depth chart by a couple of second-year players, sophomore Austin Monahan and RS freshman Brandon Barden, both of whom are easily more athletic than Bradford but need a lot of work when it comes to blocking. RS sophomore Justin Green, widely considered to be the most talented of the group, has for some reason known only to the coaches, managed to slip to fourth on the depth chart. 6’7” guys with hands who can run don’t grow on trees, so it will be interesting to see if Green can earn back his expected playing time.

The offensive line should also be rather interesting in 2008, as not a single starter from last season returns. In more than one instance, that might not be a bad thing, as that 2007 all-senior unit, apart from All-American left tackle Chris Williams, was incredibly disappointing. This year’s line, though obviously less experienced and a bit smaller overall than the group they’re replacing, is much more athletic. The unit’s best player, RS junior Thomas Welch (a high school quarterback whom the coaches recruited to play tight end, only he kept growing without losing any athleticism) will play right tackle, because, according to the coaches, that’s where he’s most comfortable. The team’s best guard, RS junior Ryan Custer, will also play on the right side. This leads to the interesting (crazy?) scenario in which a team with four right-handed quarterbacks will nevertheless have its weakest side of the line on the left. I’d think most running plays will go right. Capable RS junior Bradley Vierling, who saw a lot of snaps at guard in place of ineffective senior Merritt Kirchoffer last season, will take over the center position this year. Filling in on the left side will be RS sophomore Riley Lauer (a bit undersized but, again, athletic) at tackle and RS sophomore Joey Bailey at guard. Also in the mix for playing time along the line will be RS junior Drew Gardner, RS junior Eric Hensley, and RS freshman Kyle Fischer, the last of whom has really impressed coaches and may well be the most talented lineman on the team after Welch.

Defense

The Commodores only return one starter from last year’s productive-if-unspectacular defensive line, and he’s not an interior lineman (yet). While there is talent—perhaps more per player along the line than in any other season since I began following Vanderbilt—a lot of it is inexperienced, and particularly on the interior, there just aren’t a lot of bodies. The lone returning starter, RS junior Steven Stone, is a good one. Perhaps the most underrated lineman in the conference, Stone is big and is equally capable of rushing the passer and stopping the run. On the other side of the ball, the “starter” will be RS junior Broderick Stewart, a speedster who remains unable keep enough weight on his frame to be an every-down end in the SEC. Stewart is an absolute terror when he’s able to pin his ears back and go for the quarterback, and he should record his share of sacks, but he won’t be in much in short yardage situations, which means that the reserve ends, RS sophomore Teriall Brannon and, particularly, sophomore Theron Kadri, will have to produce. Thought to be a project coming out of high school, Kadri was surprisingly productive as a true freshman last season, and after having put on a fair amount of weight, the coaches expect even more from him this year. On the interior, replacing 2007 seniors Theo Horrocks and Gabe Hall are RS junior Greg Billinger and RS sophomore Adam Smotherman. Billinger is big and is finally making good on the promise he showed in high school before being derailed for two seasons following a car accident. Smotherman is equally big and talented, but appears to have a degenerative knee condition which has kept him off the field far more than his abilities would have otherwise allowed. In a vacuum, there shouldn’t be much drop-off from last year’s starters to this year’s, assuming they stay healthy, but especially with Smotherman, that might be unrealistic to expect. Listed as the primary back-ups are a bunch of young guys: RS freshman T.J. Greenstone, and true freshmen Rob Lohr and Colt Nichter. (Bizarrely, Rob Ashabranner, another RS freshman who was to provide depth along the interior, was moved to the offensive line over the summer.) Because of the lack of depth, and especially if there are any significant injuries, ends Stone and Kadri may also see a good amount of time at tackle. Both are capable of holding their own at the position but more valuable along the edges.

The linebacking corps lost yet two more senior starters in Jonathan Goff and Marcus Buggs, both of whom are likely to be on NFL rosters this season. However, the talent at the linebacker position has never been stronger, and I don’t expect there to be much of a drop-off in production. Returning to start on the weak side is junior Patrick Benoist, a sure tackler who’s capable in coverage. (Battling him for playing time, once again, will be fellow RS junior Brandon Bryant, once he returns from a leg injury.) The real story will likely be the pair of second-year players at the other linebacker spots, though, RS freshman Chris Marve in the middle, and sophomore Jon Stokes on the strong side. Vanderbilt fans anxiously await the live-game debut of Marve, who at 6’0” (generously) is undersized but is generally praised by all coaches and other observers as a future star in the SEC. Stokes, only the second Rivals 4-star to ever sign with Vanderbilt, is big, fast, and smart, and he might eventually see time at defensive end, though probably not in 2008, barring some incredible rash of injuries along the line. In various back-up roles will be the previously mentioned Bryant, RS sophomore Nate Campbell (perhaps the best athlete on the team), RS junior Chris Johnson (a special-teams force), RS junior Brent Trice (a converted safety), and true Freshmen Tristan Strong and DeAndre Jones. In short, the talent Vanderbilt has had over the past decade at linebacker (NFL-ers like Shelton Quarles, Jamie Duncan, Jamie Winborn, Matt Stewart, Hunter Hillenmeyer, and the aforementioned Goff) does not appear to have dropped off in the least.

The secondary, however, which returns all four starters (five, if you include the nickel back) is unquestionably the strength of the team. The star of the unit is junior D.J. Moore, a pre-season All-American and a guy projected by many as a first-round pick in the NFL Draft this coming offseason. Moore is fast and agile, and he has fantastic ball skills—he’s easily the program’s best defensive back since Corey Chavous. (Moore will also see a lot of time on offense, as the coaches try to use him like a Champ Bailey, hopefully without killing him.) Opposite Moore is Myron Lewis, who led the conference in pass break-ups last season and, at 6’3”, is a defensive backs coach’s dream, physically. The team’s designated nickel back, as he has been for the past three seasons, is RS junior Darlron Spead, a playmaker with ball skills similar to those of Moore. At safety, the Commodores return underrated RS senior Reshard Langford, possibly the hardest hitter in the conference and the unquestioned leader of the defense, and RS junior Ryan Hamilton, a solid tackler who rarely finds himself out of position. Also logging minutes in the secondary will be RS seniors Josh Allen and Jared Fagan, RS junior Joel Caldwell (a former starter at cornerback as a freshman who was moved to safety after the emergence of Moore and Lewis last season), and true Freshmen Casey Hayward (easily the best athlete of the 2008 signing class, and someone whom the coaches will have difficulty keeping off the field) and Sean Richardson (who’s had perhaps the best Summer of anyone on the defense).

Special Teams

Returning at kicker is senior Bryant Hahnfeldt, a kid with a very strong leg who after a great freshman season has battled injury and then resultant confidence issues ever since. He’s reportedly had an outstanding Spring and Summer, but we won’t know until the real games start whether he’s back to his original reliable self. Hahnfeldt has cost the team more than one game over the past couple of season with misses, but the coaches appear to be optimistic that such performances are behind him.

Scheduled to handle the punting duties is junior Brett Upson, whom I had a very low opinion of before actually looking at the statistics. He’s not great, but he was in the middle third of punters in the conference last year, which should be good enough, and one would expect him to be in a similar range, if not better, in 2008. However, he’s battled some leg injuries this offseason, and it appears as though Hahnfeldt, who handled some of the punting duties as a freshman, may open the season on double-duty for Vanderbilt. What’s really hurt the Commodores in the past few seasons is the kick coverage unit, which was seemingly compounded even further last season by the bizarre rugby-style technique installed by the coaches, which looked poorly organized and ill-suited to Upson’s abilities. The kick coverage (including that on kick-offs), in some form or fashion, simply must improve for the team to have success. Frankly, I hear about improvement in this area every offseason, but until it actually shows up in the games, I’ll remain pessimistic about the punting game as a whole.

Alex Washington, referenced above, was scheduled to be the primary return man before he blew out his ACL, but with his forced absence, the coaches might be forced to use their best weapon, D.J. Moore, in yet another type of football situation. It’s risky to expose him to so many hits, but I think Washington’s injury might be a blessing in disguise, as Moore is simply electrifying with the ball in his hands. Also seeing time returning kicks will likely be Graham and Cole, both of whom would seem to be ideally suited for the role. Cole, in particular, has wowed coaches in workouts and practices at the position.

Outlook

On offense, as I alluded to above, it really all comes down to Nickson. Yes, it will be nice if the line gels and does what the coaches believe the unit is capable of doing, and it will help if Hawkins stays healthy and produces at the level of which he’s previously shown flashes, but if Nickson is short-hopping receivers in Clausen-esque fashion like he did for much of last season, the offense simply won’t score enough (or log enough possession time) to win games, no matter how great the defense is.

With any health luck along the interior defensive line, this could be a truly special defense. The talent is there all over the field, and if the tackles can hold up against the run, I would expect the Commodores to be one of the better scoring defenses in the country in 2008. Quite frankly, they’ll generate a pass rush if for no other reason than the linemen will have a lot of time to get to the quarterback because the receivers won’t be able to get open very quickly.

The special teams are a huge question mark. Moore, Cole, and Graham could really help in the return game, but if the kicking and coverage units don’t improve on their woeful performances of the last couple of seasons, this aspect will once again cost the Commodores a game or two over the course of the season.

Oh, and if D.J. Moore gets hurt, we’re absolutely screwed.

The non-conference schedule includes games at Miami (OH) and Wake Forest, and home games against Rice and Duke. In the SEC, we play South Carolina, Auburn, Florida, and Tennessee at home, while we leave Nashville for games in Starkville, Oxford, Athens, and Lexington.

Games in which VU should be a substantial underdog: Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, at Georgia.

Games in which VU will be an underdog with a shot: at Wake, South Carolina, at Mississippi State, at Ole Miss, at Kentucky.

Games which VU really has no business losing: at Miami, Rice, Duke.

I’d bet against us against Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Georgia, Wake Forest, and Mississippi State. I think we’re very capable of winning the other six—we actually have more talent than Ole Miss; Kentucky lost, like, all of its players from last year; and we dominated South Carolina, which has no quarterback, on the road last year without Nickson—but I’m sure we’ll blow it against at least one and probably two of them. The opening four-game stretch—at Miami; South Carolina; Rice; at Ole Miss—really is key; if we could manage a 3-1 record against those schools, we’d have a real shot at 6 wins.

Anyway, I’m looking for a 5-7 season, with 4-8 being more likely than 6-6. The talent gap is narrowing, and there are legitimate encouraging signs all across the roster, but I’m probably going to have trouble actually predicting a bowl berth again until we prove we can do it.

–Stu

2008 Tennessee Volunteers

It has been ten years since the Vols somehow managed to win the National Title. Many will argue that the Phil Fulmer’s job still rests on that 1998 team. For the first time since like 1908 the Volunteers have gone outside the program to hire a coordinator and an offensive staff. This may be one of the signs of the apocalypse, but that whirling sound you have been hearing since late spring is the General Robert Neyland spinning in his grave.

The 2007 team was one of the most bizarre teams in Tennessee history. They took poundings at Alabama and Florida, a crazy loss at California, and a close loss to LSU in the SEC Championship Game. However, they stomped Arkansas and cost Georgia a shot at the National Title, while both teams were arguably much more talented. Then they went up big on South Carolina, only to let them back in the game in the second half. They went 35 overtimes with Kentucky and somehow came from behind to beat Vandy.

At the end of the season OC David Cutcliffe took the head coaching position at that ACC powerhouse, Duke, and took most of the offensive staff with him. QB Erik Ainge graduated and all world linebacker Jerod Mayo went to the NFL. Former Richmond Head Coach Dave Clawson brings a west coast/ spread attack (well that is what it is being referred to in Knoxville, no one really knows what it he is going to do because there isn’t a lot of video on the Richmond Spiders floating around on You Tube.)

Offense

Tennessee is stacked on the line and at the wide receiver position. Running back Arian Foster is 685 yards away from being the schools all time leading rusher and has two solid back-ups in Lennon Creer and Montario Hardesty. However, the season will come down to weather or not junior Jonathan Crompton can pick up the new offense and replace Ainge. Crompton was a five star recruit out of North Carolina. He has a big-time arm and isn’t afraid to take a hit (both qualities Ainge didn’t have.) Lucas Taylor and Gerald Jones are both talented playmakers Crompton will have to get the ball to.

Defense

Losing Jerod Mayo hurt: in fact if he had returned for another season the Vols might be picked to be a top ten team. However, Tennessee is quietly becoming Linebacker U. Rico McCoy and Eliz Wilson both have seen a lot of playing time and will fill the void nicely.

The defensive line showed much improvement as the 2007 season went on. Dan Williams and DeMonte Bolden are the leaders up front. Look for Ben Martin and Walt Fisher to have big seasons.

If for some reason a player makes it past the linebackers, he is probably going to wish he hadn’t. Freshman All-American safety Eric Berry will be there waiting to unload some pain. I have been watching Tennessee football for over 20 years and Berry is the hardest hitting safety the Vols have had in that time period. This kid is going to be a special player. Former strong safety Demetrice Morley was reinstated and along with Brent Vinson and DeAngelo Willingham (Cornerbacks), and all-world return man/shut down corner Dennis Rogan, this is probably the best secondary in the conference.

Special Teams

Rogan will be returning the punts and sharing kickoff duty with Berry and Vinson, with a few others mixed in.

Daniel Lincoln was solid in his freshman year and has gained a lot of trust with Fulmer.

The real weakness will be punter Britton Colquitt’s suspension due to his DUI arrest. Chad Cunningham will handle the punting duties for the first five games. Colquitt handled the kickoffs last season and I assume Cunningham will do so for the first five games.

Schedule

The season starts for the Vols with a visit to UCLA. After that UAB comes to town for a tune-up before the real fun begins. Florida, a trip to the plains against Auburn and at Georgia comprises a three-out-of-four week gauntlet with Northern Ill. thrown in the middle. After that it doesn’t get easier with home games with Mississippi State and Bama. Then off to visit our friend Steve Spurrier in Columbia. Followed by an eaier November with Wyoming, Vandy and Kentucky (both of whom should have beaten Tennessee last year.)

Overall

This is a tough season to predict. If Crompton can catch on quick to Clawson’s vision and Clawson’s vision is worth a damn, then this could be a dangerous team that could win the East and maybe the whole conference. If you win the SEC Title, then you are in the National Title hunt. However, Tennessee always plays a tough schedule and with a first year starting quarterback National Title might be too much to ask. Of course, Tee Martin was a first year starter ten years ago…

The games with UAB, Wyoming and Northern Illinois are W’s. UCLA, MSU, Vandy and Kentucky are all games I think the Vols should win (UCLA had big time injuries at QB and RB.) Alabama, Spurrier, and Auburn are going to toss ups. Florida and Georgia will require Tennessee to bring their A game. I think Florida is a little overrated, but let’s face it, they own the Vols. It is kind of the other way around with UGA. So right now I say the Vols beat UCLA, UAB, Northern Ill, MSU, Spurrier, Bama, Wyoming, Kentucky, and Vandy. There is a good chance they split the UGA/Florida games and I think the Auburn game is a loss. That gives the Vols around a 10-2/ 9-3 record. Not too bad. It could easily go from 10-2 to 7-5, you never know in the SEC. I will go out on a limb and say the Vols go to on of three bowls: Sugar, Cotton, or whatever the Citrus Bowl is called now.

–Smitty

Georgia Football Preview

2006 was the ultimate in Jekyll & Hyde football for the Dawgs. There was the points in the season where we lost to Vanderbilt and Kentucky, and with all due respect to my friend Stu, we shouldn’t be losing to Vandy (or Kentucky)–ever.

The biggest reason for those losses was the most devastating injury (in practice, no less) to placekicker Brandon Coutu, one of the best in the nation. His back up was the awful Andy Bailey. Thanks to Bailey, Georgia started going for 2 point conversions more than I have seen any college football team do in recent memory.

It was that bad with Bailey.

Plus, there was the Tennessee debacle where we took a solid lead into halftime and came out in the 2nd half (at home) and got killed. We allowed Erik Ainge to play like he was Joe Montana and lost badly. But then we closed the season with three straight big wins including a road thrashing of Auburn, our usual win over a feisty Georgia Tech, and a stirring comeback win in the Chick Fil-A Bowl against ranked Virginia Tech.

The key for Georgia’s upswing at the end of the 2006 season was the growth of freshman sensation Quarterback, Matthew Stafford, one of the most heralded recruits in Georgia history, and the hope to Georgia fans to finally bring us home another national championship–a taste we haven’t experienced since 1980.

Stafford looked like a typical Freshman during much of the season, stuck early behind fill-in senior legacy, Joe Tereshinski III, and even had to be pulled in the 4th Quarter of a possible embarrassing home loss to a mediocre Colorado team because he was so ineffective, before back up Joe Cox bailed us out.

But Stafford matured towards the end, took control, and got on the same page as new offensive coordinator (and former Georgia QB) Mike Bobo, and the team hit a peak in the last 3 games–all good wins over good teams.

Part of Georgia’s problem is the national media. Despite the overwhelming success Mark Richt has been brought this program in his first 5 seasons (including 2 SEC titles) the national media is in love with Spurrier, Fulmer, Saban and Urban Meyer, and Georgia continues to have to fight for respect and fight uphill with their quiet leader.

This year, Georgia has a real uphill battle with several losses along the offensive line and the defense line including stalwarts Charles Johnson, Quentin Moses & Ray Gant. A lot of pressure is on Stafford and his receivers, but I think he can handle it.

The Schedule:

S1 vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (Athens)
S8 vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (Athens)
S15 vs. WESTERN CAROLINA (Athens)
S22 @ Alabama (Tuscaloosa)
S29 vs. OLE MISS (Athens)
O6 @ Tennessee (Knoxville)
O13 @ Vanderbilt (Nashville)
O20 BYE
O27 @ Florida (Jacksonville) – THIS IS ALWAYS A ROAD GAME UNTIL THEY START HAVING HALF THESE GAMES IN ATLANTA
N3 vs. TROY (Athens)
N10 vs. AUBURN (Athens)
N17 vs. KENTUCKY (Athens)
N24 @ Georgia Tech (Atlanta – high school stadium)

Quarterbacks

This team starts & ends with what Matthew Stafford does. While ESPN continues to lap up Tim Tebow and his little runs like he’s Randall Cunningham, Matthew Stafford will be the best Quarterback in the SEC. Yes, better than Ainge, Blake Mitchell, Tebow, & even the vaunted Matt Flynn. We may not win the SEC, but he’s the most talented Quarterback in the conference. No matter how much ESPN promotes Tebow. As Mel Kiper said, Stafford has the best arm in college football and will be playing on Sundays.

He has a firm handle on this offense now and has plenty of weapons around him. Behind Staff, Matt has a very solid back up in Joe Cox. Cox proved himself on a few occasions last year, in particular the Colorado game, but he gives the Dawgs depth. After Cox, Blake Barnes has talent but is not going to break in, and the Dawgs added a terrific freshman named Logan Gray, who offers a tremendous arm and running attack.

Running Backs

This position will also be even stronger this year with a healthy & returning Thomas Brown, a lightning quick back with great explosiveness. He will start, but is being pushed hard by a top notch recruit named Knowshorn Moreno. Moreno has been a beast during practice and spring drills and many think he may yank the starting job sooner than later, no matter how good Brown is.

Also back and a contender for big minutes is talented Kregg Lumpkin. Like Brown, he got over a major leg injury a few years back, but is very talented and just gives the Dawgs even more great depth. The depth is so good at RB, that heralded star freshman recruit Caleb King, is now going to redshirt. Like QB, this should be a position of terrific strength for Georgia.

Wide Receivers

The weapons for Stafford got deeper once again with the return of 5th year senior, the speedy Sean Bailey. Bailey put on a show in the SEC Championship game in 2005 (receiving 2 TD passes from then senior starter, DJ Shockley) before breaking his leg and losing the 2006 season. Bailey returns to a deeper, more mature corps of receivers.

The other expected starter along with Bailey is the electrifying Mikey Henderson, who became a highlight reel for the Dawgs with some electrifying punt return touchdowns last year. Pushing Henderson and Bailey will be AJ Bryant & Mohammed Mossaqoi, two more talented receivers who shouild see plenty of playing time. Big things are expected from Mossaqoi to finally deliver on some of the promse he’s shown.

Also expected to see regular field duty will be Kenneth Harris, solid with the occasional flashy catch, and star recruit Israel Troupe. Kris Durham is another lanky, 6-6 receiver who also made the occasional big catch.

Tight end should be a big upgrade this year with the departure of Matrez Milner; Milner had great physical gifts but couldn’t hang onto to the damn ball and his end zone drops singlehandedly cost us the Florida game.

Many Georgia fans are relieved to see Tripp Chandler as the starter, who’s not as athletically gifted as Milner, but good hands, a good blocker and very reliable. He will be pushed by a pair of talented back ups including 6-6 Coleman Watson and former star recruit, Na’Derris Ward.

Offensive Line

Many predictors have been saying Georgia’s offensive line could be a huge problem with all the departures, but heralded freshman Trinton Sturdivant has come in and immediately made a huge impact, so a lot of the concerns have been eased.

Georgia has two returning starters in Fernando Velasco and Chester Adams, who are both a year older and more experienced, and should help the younger players coming in like Chris Davis.

Also helping will be another new starter, JUCO transfer Scott Haverkamp.

Overall, the offensive line will have it’s off moments at times, but this unit will actually be a lot more solid then being projected, and should still give Stafford’s rocket arm enough time to get his downfield touchdown passes off.

And keep an eye on Military college transfer Vince Vance–very talented and a good chance he pushes his way into a starting role this season.

Defensive Line

There’s a whole bunch of new starters on the Defensive line with the departures of stalwarts like Moses, Johnson & Gant. However, at a school like Georgia, we are expected to reload and not rebuild, and the new starters should perform better than the national media wants to give them credit for.

Among the new starters is Jeff Owens, a talented and speedy back up who finally gets a chance to start. Marcus Owens and Geno Atkins, two more small & speedy defensive players are expected to start as well.

The star on the line this year should be Sophomore Roderick Battle. Very talented, a very hard hitter.

Among the reserves, the x-factor player in my opinion is Kade Weston. Like running back Knowshorn Moreno, Weston was a star recruit from the state of New Jersey a few years ago but some weight issues have prevented him from realizing his full potential. He’s mammoth and could be a huge run stopping force for Georgia–if he can keep his weight somewhat under control.

All in all, this will not be Georgia’s best Defensive line by any means, but it will be competitive. It’s hopeful that even the games this unit doesn’t play as well, Stafford’s high octane offense will be putting major points on the board to supplement.

Linebackers

Georgia lost two more good players here with the graduation of Tony Taylor and Jarvis Jackson.

However, Georgia has a chance to be just as good this season with super fast linebackers like Darnell Ellerbee, Darius Dewberry (another big time recruit ready to break out) and Brandon Miller, who was one of the top linebacking recruits in the country a few years back, but has had mounting injuries at times. I think Miller will be the one who’s the leader of this group.

The key reserve is Marcus Washington–a very hard hitter like many others on the Dawgs defensive depth chart. After that, depth is in thin if there are injuries and it might gives some talented freshmen a chance to play. What hurt the depth even more was the loss of Akeem Hebron who was suspended for the year. Hebron was expected to be the star here.

Secondary

A few months ago, us Georgia fans received crushing news when it was announced that star cornerback, and the guy would have probably been our best defensive player in 2007, Paul Oliver, was ruled academically ineligible. This was a very tough loss and definitely is affecting the way a lot of analysts are viewing Georgia’s defense this year.

Oliver ended up being taken by a shrewd Chargers organization in the 2nd round of the NFL’s supplemental draft.

So, the Dawgs have to pick up the pieces and thankfully, there are some other studs to help do that.

It starts with safety Kelin Johnson, who had some of the best highlight reel hits on wide receivers of anyone this past year. Kelin’s safety cohort will be CJ Byrd, who also has a wealth of talent and should keep Georgia strong at safety.

Trying to offset the loss of Oliver at Corner, will be Bryan Evans and Asher Allen. Evans is solid, but Allen is the player with the star potential. Another heralded recruit who needs to step up this year and hopefully become a leader.

However, Georgia coaches love what they see out of star reserve safety Reshard Jones and there’s a good chance Jones likely takes Evans or Allen’s starting corner spot, just to get him onto the field sooner than later. We’re also very excited about another big recruit named Quentin Banks, a sophomore and possibly the best hitter in the group.

Despite how hard the loss was of Paul Oliver, this group still has the potential to strike fear into opposing receivers.

Special Teams

Despite the graduation of excellent punter, Gordon Ely-Kelso, Georgia is fortunate to have back one of the best kickers in the country in Brandon Coutu.

Coutu’s injury last year was a huge factor in the Vanderbilt and Kentucky losses, as back up Andy Bailey gave ulcers every second he strode onto the field. Hopefully, Coutu will stay healthy and Georgia fans will never ever have to see Andy Bailey ever kick again–he flat out sucks. Sucks, sucks, sucks.

Andy Bailey = the Chris Reitsma of Georgia football.

With Ely-Kelso gone, the punting duties come down to either junior Brian Mimbs or fresman legacy, Drew Butler, son of former Dog kicking legend, Kevin Butler, who went onto a great career with the Chicago Bears.

But as long as we have Coutu, we will win at least 2-3 games because of him alone this year.

Outlook

Most forecasters are dismissing Georgia as a legit threat in the SEC. Frankly, I don’t understand why.

Yes, without question LSU is the best team in the conference and deserves to be favored to win in Atlanta in early December.

But while every single person at ESPN, Fox, CBS, etc. is gaga over Florida, again (and let’s face it, our won-loss record with Florida the last 16 years gives anyone pause) I am not at all sold of Tim Tebow’s ‘gimmick’ making him a sudden star. He doesn’t nearly have the arm of a Stafford, though certainly Tebow has the weapons, if his arm shows more than we’ve all seen.

But keep in mind that Florida lost all their defensive starters practically and despite being loaded once again recruiting-wise, Florida will have to outscore teams to win this year. That generally doesn’t work all the time (see: 2007 Braves).

Tennessee is now dealing with an injured Erik Ainge and some big losses of star players on their offense. Sure, I don’t expect Georgia to blow either team out, but let’s just say I won’t be as shocked as say Lee Corso if Georgia wins both those huge rivalry games. Mark Richt is 3-0 as Georgia coach at Neyland Stadium and we have a chance to be 4-0 this year. That big disgusting sea of orange does not intimidate us and we’ll have revenge on our minds.

The sleeper SEC East team of course is South Carolina. With the evil genius Spurrier and better talent, it would not be shocking for this USC to possible sneak ahead of all of us in the division and represent the East in Atlanta.

So, I will save making actually predictions on individual games and put the Dawgs at 10 wins, Bowl game included. No matter how much America dismisses the Dawgs or ignores the quiet confidence of Mark Richt, I know what we’re capable of and these kids will play hard and smart for Richt.

GO DAWGS.

- Alex R.

2007 Vanderbilt Season Preview

If this isn’t the year Vanderbilt finally breaks its bowl drought, I may give up hoping that it will ever happen while the school remains in the SEC. (And I don’t think VU will be leaving the SEC anytime soon.)

 

This year’s team features 18 returning starters—9 on offense, 7 on defense, and both kickers—and, unlike previous iterations of Commodore Football, that’s actually a good thing. Coach Bobby Johnson and his staff, now entering Year 6 at the helm, have, in addition to bringing in a few more higher-profile recruits than did previous staffs, done a remarkable job of finding under-the-radar types who are capable of playing—and playing well—in the toughest division of the toughest conference in college football. In addition to an experienced roster and an increased talent level, Vanderbilt’s schedule this season is one that should prove favorable to a bowl run. The team plays 12 games this season, and 8 of them are at home. Further, what look to be the 4 toughest opponents it will face this season will be played on the road. While for an elite school, this makes for a “bad schedule year”—you want your toughest opponents coming to your place, because the goal is going undefeated, and you figure you can handle the weaker teams on the road—I think the opposite is true for Vanderbilt, who doesn’t stand a great chance of beating the toughest opponents anyway and should be able to maximize its home-field advantage, what little there is in Nashville, by playing the least-strong teams there.

 

Schedule (conference games in bold, away games designated with a “*“)

 

Richmond

Alabama

Ole Miss

(bye)

Eastern Michigan

Auburn*

Georgia

South Carolina*

Miami-OH

Florida*

Kentucky

Tennessee*

Wake Forest

Quarterbacks

 

Chris Nickson, a RS Junior who was recently voted onto the third team for pre-season All-SEC by the coaches, will lead the team in this, his second season as the starter. Last year, many may not realize that he finished 4th in the SEC in total offense per game (third among returning players), averaging 173.8 yards passing and 57.8 yards on the ground, while throwing 15 TDs and rushing for another 9. A dynamic athlete with a strong arm, Nickson showed flashes of brilliance as a Sophomore, but the coaches hope he will improve on his 2006 accuracy and decision making. Boasting an efficiency rating in the lower half of conference starters last year, the focus in offseason practices has been on increasing his 54.8% completion percentage and decreasing the number of turnovers he surrenders (13 INTs, ___ fumbles lost). Both will be important to the team’s success in 2007.

 

Talent-wise, QB depth is generally thought to be a position of real strength for the Commodores, though the performances of backups Mac Adams (another smart dual-threat passer, this one a RS Sophomore) and Richard Kovalcheck (a Senior and former highly-touted recruit who transferred from Arizona last offseason under the short-lived rule allowing players to do so without sitting out a year) have left a lot to be desired in practice, with neither player showing the sort of decision making that playing against SEC defenses requires. If Nickson is lost to injury for any significant time, this will be a real problem.

 

It smacks of cliché, but the fate of the VU season will probably be determined in large part by how well their QB plays. If the team is to make it to a bowl, Nickson must remain healthy and improve on his accuracy and decision making. The coaches seem to believe this will happen, and I must confess that I am of the same opinion—this kid has a chance to have a breakout season and be a special player in this conference.

 

Tailbacks

 

Another key to Vanderbilt’s season will be not having Chris Nickson lead the team in rushing again.

 

That will depend primarily on two players, Cassen Jackson-Garrison and Jeff Jennings. The former, a Senior with SEC size and speed but questionable vision and aggressiveness, was the starter for all of last year, rushing for only 614 yards and 5 scores, on 4 yards per carry. The latter, a RS Junior who blew out his knee at the end of the 2005 campaign and missed all of last season, is probably the more talented player—most fans would certainly like to see him get the majority of the carries in 2007—and seems to have fully recovered from the injury. Coach Johnson has said that the RB duties will be split between the two, but I have to think that the situation is a fluid one, and if one of the two emerges (almost certainly Jennings, if either) once the real games start, he’ll become the featured back.

 

The only other RB who, barring injury, is likely to see any significant action is RS Sophomore Jared Hawkins. Hawkins is smallish, but he showed flashes of game-breaking ability last season, when he averaged nearly 7 yards per carry in 43 attempts. Many fans have been clamoring for a year for Hawkins to get more touches, and the primary reason he doesn’t would appear to be his tendency to fumble, which, according to reports, has not improved a great deal in practice. Still, Hawkins should see the field and may have a say in how Vandy’s season goes.

 

Receivers

 

The main story here is, of course, Earl Bennett, one of the top receivers in the country and one of the players on nearly everyone’s All-America teams. Known (by fans and NFL scouts) for his great hands and sharp route-running, the Junior from Alabama, as most know by now, is on pace to break the SEC career marks for receptions and yardage, after combining for 161 catches and 2,022 yards (and 15 TDs) over his first two seasons. Thought by some to be a fluke after his first season in Nashville, Earl put his name on the national stage to stay in 2006 by having an even better season than in 2005, this time with defenses geared towards containing him without Jay Cutler throwing to him. As last season showed, Bennett’s production will be there, regardless of what the rest of the receiving corps is able to provide.

 

There is in 2007 a lot of optimism surrounding those other receivers. Though starter Marlon White graduated, the overall talent of the unit seems to have gotten better this year, with another year of experience. Vanderbilt’s primary offensive set will now include 3 WRs (last year, the H-Back set was the most common), so the unit will feature two new starters, George Smith (a RS Junior who has battled back from a spinal disease and, at 6′3″/200 lbs, should be a strong compliment for Bennett) and Sean Walker (a Junior and the fastest of the VU receivers, he has big-play ability and should be able to stretch the field, something Commodore pass-catchers have struggled with in the past). The second wave of receivers is also quite talented, if inconsistent, and inclludes Justin Wheeler, Bryant Anderson and Alex Washington, all of whom should see the field plenty in 2007.

 

Tight Ends/H-Backs

 

Brad Allen returns as the starter at TE for Vanderbilt. Allen was highly regarded coming out of high school but has yet to materialize into the weapon the coaches thought they were getting. He should be pushed hard by his backups, as Vanderbilt has a number of very big, athletic players at the position, led by Justin Green and Jake Bradford. As the strongest blocker of a crowded, talented group, however, Allen is likely to keep his starting job, at least for this year, even if he doesn’t progress as a pass-catcher.

 

VU enters 2007 without its H-Back, Steven Bright, from a season ago, and he will be difficult to replace, as evidenced by the change in offensive sets. Still, while Bright was probably the most versatile player on the team (a former QB for the Commodores, he had good speed and great hands, and he was a strong blocker), he had an injury-filled career in Nashville, so the staff got used to preparing gameplans that didn’t include him. Expect the H-Back, if used much at all, to come from that same group of TEs.\

 

Offensive Line

As a unit, this is probably the team’s greatest strength, and it’s certainly the main reason I and many other fans are optimistic about the 2007 season.

 

The starters are all Seniors–four of them, red-shirts–with a great deal of size (averaging 6′5″/307 lbs) and, perhaps more importantly, experience. The real stars on the O-Line are the two Tackles, RT Brian Stamper (in his sixth year at Vandy after being granted a medical red shirt by the NCAA–after his petition had initially been rejected by the SEC–for last season), and LT Chris Williams (perhaps the best individual lineman in the conference), both of whom stand a good chance to play on Sundays next year. Rounding out the line are Center Hamilton Holliday (the only true Senior of the bunch) and Guards Josh Eames and Merritt Kirchoffer, though Kirchoffer is being pushed by RS Sophomore Brad Vierling for playing time.

 

As for depth, it’s also very strong and relatively experienced. Guys like Vierling, Thomas Welch (T), and Ryan Custer (G) should also see a fair amount of playing time–they saw it last year because of a rash of injuries–though, if healthy, the 5 Senior starters will take the vast majority of snaps.

 

All in all, this group of linemen should consistently at least break even, if not win, the battle against defensive fronts around the league, and in this conference, that’s really saying something. Their play will be crucial if there is to be any improvement in the running game–though, admittedly, the problem in that area last year was hardly the fault of this unit–and should provide Chris Nickson with the time he needs to make better decisions and more accurate throws. Vanderbilt may actually be able to wear down opposing defenses, something that hasn’t been the case very often in recent seasons in Nashville.

 

Defensive Line

 

The starters on the D-Line are very capable, but the real issue with this unit is depth, particularly up the middle.

 

At one End position, Curtis Gatewood, a RS Senior, had a breakout campaign in 2006 (49 tackles, 8 TFL, 7 sacks) and looks to build on that in 2007. One of the hardest workers on defense, Gatewood can rush the passer and stop the run. As evidence of his disruptive presence, he finished last season with 4 forced fumbles, good for third in the conference. At the other End position, manned by solid-but-unspectacular Chris Booker a season ago, 2 RS Sophomores, Steven Stone and Broderick Stewart, will be used to try to approximate the contributions of Gatewood on the other edge. Stone will be listed as the starter and he is the better run stopper of the two. Stewart, a speedster who showed flashes of real ability last year, is much smaller in size and, at least for the time being–until he can prove that he won’t be consistently bowled over or otherwise made irrelevant on run defense–will serve as the pass-rush specialist.

 

True Freshman Theron Kadri, a raw athlete with size and a big-time motor, and RS Freshman Teriall Brannon, another big-but-unrefined athlete, will provide depth. The coaches would obviously prefer not to have to rely on these younger players, and barring injury, they shouldn’t have to much, given Gatewood’s ability to play every down.

 

As for the interior line, depth is a real concern even with a completely healthy unit. The starters, Senior Theo Horrocks and RS Senior Gabe Hall, should be fine–they’re both big, relatively athletic guys–at least as far as stopping the run is concerned, though they aren’t expected to generate much pressure on the opposing QB. Horrocks, in particular, is a very good player (like Gatewood, he has a nose for the ball, having forced 3 fumbles in 2006) and one of the more vocal team leaders.

 

Behind those two, though, it gets dicy. Greg Billinger, a RS Freshman, is the primary backup. A UGA commitment before deciding to renege and sign with the Commodores a couple years ago, Billinger is certainly a talent, but the concern with him is his inexperience. Adam Smotherman, another big and talented RS Freshman, was to be the fourth member of the tackle rotation, but in addition to his obvious inexperience, he’s suffered through a lingering knee injury all offseason and will not be at full strength to start the season. After him, the DTs aren’t really even worth mentioning by name, at least not in 2007.

 

Linebackers

 

This is the real strength of the Commodore defense (as usual), and is led by MLB Jon Goff, a RS Senior and the player, along with WR Earl Bennett and LT Chris Williams, receiving the most attention from NFL scouts. Coming off a season in which he recorded 93 tackles, good for 7th in the conference and 2nd among returning players, Jon should–and, frankly, will have to–go a long way toward solving the run-stopping problem likely to be created by the lack of depth on the interior line.

 

On the strong side, RS Senior Marcus Buggs returns and is as reliable as they come. Though undersized (listed at 5′11″/228), the converted safety has the speed to hold his own in coverage, and his production is very good (50 tackles, 10.5 TFL in 2006)–the coaches don’t have to worry about the Sam position. On the weak side, Brandon Bryant–a RS Sophomore who received perhaps more praise from coaches during offseason workouts and practices than any other player–will fill in for Kevin Joyce, who graduated after last season. A sure tackler with SEC speed, Bryant may well be better than Joyce, who had 59 tackles, was in 2006.

 

The Commodores also boast quality depth at LB, as RS Sophomore Patrick Benoist (who was in a fierce battle with Bryant for the Will starting job prior to injuring his ankle) and RS Freshman Nate Campbell should see a lot of action, in addition to True Freshman Jon Stokes, the most highly regarded nationally of VU’s incoming Freshmen.

 

Defensive Backs

 

Vanderbilt returns all 4 starters in its secondary from a year ago, and the coaches are hoping that extra year of experience will lead to on-the-field improvement, particularly with the Cornerbacks.

 

Last year, Sophomores DJ Moore and Marlon Lewis showed flashes of ability, as well as their inexperience–they were true Freshmen in 2006, obviously–in giving up far too many big passing plays. Both are said to have had exceptional camps, though, and should hopefully show that improvement on the field. Moore, in particular, shows the kind of athletic ability needed to be a shut-down corner in the SEC and which, quite honestly, Vanderbilt has not featured in a decade. With the added experience, too, the coaches are expected to allow the Moore and Lewis to play closer to the line of scrimmage, thereby limiting the number of short, easy passes opposing offenses were able to complete with some frequency in 2006, when the corners frequently gave 8-yard cushions before the snap.

 

Leading the reserve CBs–and likely to see a lot of time on the field in the Nickel formation, which the Commodores frequently employ–is RS Sophomore Darlron Spead, who has the ball skills needed to create turnovers. Other reserve CBs include two upperclassmen, RS Juniors Josh Allen and Jared Fagan, who are listed on the second string but are expected by most fans to be bumped down in the pecking order as the year goes on by some of the more talented younger players. In particular, a name to watch out for is Jamie Graham, a true Freshman and local product who is a dynamic athlete–he may well play for Kevin Stallings’ basketball team, too–and who, the coaches feel, is worthy of seeing as much playing time as possible.

 

Unlike the CBs, the Commodore Safeties have little to prove. SS Reshard Langford, a RS Junior, is among the hardest hitters in the league and does a good job protecting the middle of the field in addition to helping out with the run. Though he isn’t particularly fast and does not have sure hands–he dropped more than one interception last season–his role on the team does not require either. In my opinion, Langford is probably the most underappreciated player on Vanderbilt’s roster, by outsiders. He is very much like UGA’s Greg Blue, who graduated a couple years ago and whom I also saw play a lot of football. I’ll be shocked if Reshard doesn’t play in the NFL. At FS, RS Sophomore Ryan Hamilton will enter his second year as a starter. What Langford lacks in ball skills and speed, Hamilton makes up for; in addition, he is a sure tackler, though, at 6′2″/210, he could still stand to add some weight to his lanky frame.

 

Backing up the safeties will be Sophomore Brent Trice and RS Sophomore Joel Caldwell, who played as a CB last year before being moved. Trice is a playmaker, one of the best athletes on the roster–another guy the coaches are looking to find a way to get on the field–and Caldwell has reportedly done quite well in the transition to Safety.

 

Special Teams

 

This was the real bugaboo of the 2006 Vanderbilt Commodores–lost to Arkansas by 2 after missing a last-second FG; lost to Ole Miss by 7, despite outgaining them 400-179, after two missed FGs, a fumbled punt and a sack taken by the punter; lost to Florida by 6 after having 2 punts blocked. Add to that Vanderbilt’s abysmal kick coverage, ranking ___ in the nation last season, and it’s not hard to see what area of this football team needs the most improvement over last season.

 

Placekicker Bryant Hahnfeldt looks to rebound from a subpar Sophomore season to the form he showed as a freshman in 2005. Last season, the kicker, recovering from a knee injury sustained at the end of 2005, never found a rhythm and connected on only 8 of 17 FG attempts. Reports indicate, however, that Hahnfeldt has been very strong this offseason, kicking with much greater accuracy and connecting on 50+-yard attempts with regularity. Assuming he can get over any residual mental effects from the 2006 season, there’s no reason that Hahnfeldt shouldn’t be a weapon for the Commodores in 2007.

 

The punting situation must also be shored up. Last season, Freshman Brett Upson was only 10th in the league in punting average–37.4–but that wasn’t even the main problem with the unit, which was consistently exposed for the poor blocking that resulted in several game-changing blocked punts. This year, the coaches have opted to keep several starters in on the special teams units, so, while the injury risk for these guys increases, the protection for the kickers is expected to be greatly improved.

 

When it comes to returning kicks, the main issue focused on this offseason has been hanging on to the football, something Vanderbilt’s returners, particularly those returning punts, have been seemingly unable to do over the past couple of seasons. Reserve WR Alex Washington, who, despite having speed and quickness, struggled mightily when given the chance last season, is listed as the primary kick returner to start the season, much to the surprise of most onlookers. Earl Bennett may also field punts–his hands are sure, and he’s proven to be quite elusive–but the staff is leery of exposing their star to injury. The name to watch for here, as in the secondary, is Freshman Jamie Graham. He returned kicks and punts in high school and is a good bet to be doing the same for Vanderbilt at some point during the season.

 

Kick coverage was also a problem for the Commodores in 2006, as opponents too frequently began drives with good field position. That could be an even greater problem this season, with the new NCAA rule moving the ball 5 yards back on kickoffs. Still, with Hahnfeldt’s leg–one of the stronger in the conference when healthy–back at full strength, most coaches believe the coverage should improve this season. Punt coverage may still be an adventure. On kickoffs, Patrick Benoist, the reserve LB set to miss a game or two with an injured ankle, is the main gunner, whereas on punts, Freshman reserve LB Jon Stokes, who will serve as the team’s long snapper, is said to be very strong.

 

2007 Outlook

As mentioned, this could–no, should–be a special year for Vanderbilt’s football team, which is poised to break its 24-year bowl drought. (No player on the team was alive the last time the University played football past November.)

 

The roster is deep and experienced, and the schedule sets up favorably for getting to the 6-win mark. In no particular order, here is a summary of the major issues coming into the season–that is, those questionable areas of the team on which the success of this season may well hinge:

• Nickson’s continued progression and health

• A more consistent ground game from those not named ‘Chris Nickson’

• Health on the D-Line

• Cut-down in number of big plays given up by the CBs

• Improvement in all aspects of the kicking game–kicking, kick coverage, blocking, and returning

• Turnover margin (not directly referenced anywhere above, but the team was -2 in 2006, and that has to improve–Nickson needs to be more careful with the football, our DBs need to catch more of the balls they get their hands on, and our kick returners have to keep their eyes on the freaking ball)

All of these are important, but I think Nickson’s health and improved special teams are the two most critical to a good season for the Commodores. And I think the Alabama game, in Week 2, will be the biggest game of the season. If we win that game, I’m very confident we’ll go bowling; if we don’t, I’m very confident we won’t. That game, in addition to providing one of the better opportunities to pick up a win, will demonstrate whether we’re ready to win.

 

Now, as for my predictions:

 

I see 4 games that we have absolutely no business losing–Richmond, Eastern Michigan, Miami-OH, and Ole Miss. We are demonstrably better than each of these teams (though obviously less so in the case of Ole Miss), and even the Vandy Alum in me won’t let me pick against the Commodores in any of these games. That’s 4 wins.

 

I see 2 games that we have no realistic shot at winning–Auburn and Florida. While I could make a case that upsets are possible in both games (Auburn–it’s in the middle of a brutal stretch for them, and we could get their let-down effort; Florida–we’ve played the Gators really close the past couple of years and those were much more experienced Florida teams), predicting wins in either strikes me as insane. That’s 2 losses.

 

Now, the other six games, the swing games. I don’t think there’s any way Vandy wins all 6 of these, but I think we’ll win some (and could win any); I rank them here in order of increasing likelihood of victory, with rationales:

 

South Carolina–We weren’t able to beat these guys under Spurrier before the top-flight recruits started pouring into Columbia, so I don’t see us beating them in their supposed breakout season. However, they’ve had a good bit of offseason turmoil, Blake Mitchell is incredibly shaky, and prognosticators are often wrong. But I just don’t see us winning this one–they seem to have our number. Predicted loss.

 

Tennessee–Even if there’s very little left for the Commodores to play for at the end of the season, the players will be more up for this game than any other. And UT has a lot of questions coming into this season (Who plays WR? Who plays DT? Who stays out of prison?). With that said, I can’t see winning consecutive games in Knoxville. We lose.

 

Georgia–This one’s pretty tough, because I am not buying UGA this year. Their weaknesses–inexperienced O-Line and thin secondary–would seem to play into Vandy’s hands, since they probably won’t be able to expose the Commodore D-Line, and Nickson will presumably be able to have success in the air. If we hadn’t beaten them last year (as I predicted would happen, FWIW), I would definitely pick us to do so this year. It’s just a strong matchup for us, at least on paper. But we did beat them last year, and they’re our homecoming opponent this year–I think they come to Nashville with revenge on their minds and, though it’s close, I think they probably leave with a win.

 

Alabama–Another tough one, though I’ve made my feelings on what the outcome will be well known. While Alabama has more highly-recruited players, a lot of it, especially on defense, is very inexperienced. Combine the general inexperience on D with the fact that Saban is converting to the 3-4 scheme–and we catch them in Week 2–and I think that bodes very well for VU. Also, we return more players and we barely lost in Tuscaloosa a year ago. While actually beating Bama has proved to be much easier said than done for Vandy in the past, and the Saban Factor is hard to ignore, I think we get ‘em this year. Win.

 

Wake Forest–Wake, defending its ACC championship, is obviously a very good team, but I think we have better players. I honestly don’t know a lot about the Demon Deacons, but I think we should be able to beat them in Nashville, even considering their great 2006 season. Frankly, I’m probably underrating this team, but I just am not able to imagine a world where Wake Forest is a tougher opponent than Alabama or Georgia. Not much analysis here, obviously, just a gut feeling–win.

 

Kentucky–Yes, they won 8 games last year, and they have a potent offense, featuring one of the best QBs in the country. But that defense is horrible . Truly awful. We can score with them, and I like our defense’s chances of slowing their offense down a lot better than I like their defense’s chances of slowing Vandy’s down. Also, I seriously doubt they’ll be able to duplicate that +15 turnover margin they produced a year ago, which was a big reason for the successful season. We will win.

 

So, it looks like I’m predicting a 7-5 (bowl-eligible!) season, which feels about right. I think 6-6 (still bowl-eligible!!!) is probably equally likely, and there’s always the Vandy Factor, which brings all those sub-.500 records into play, too. Though legitimately possible, I believe, I dare not think about predicting anything north of 7 wins.

 

Whatever happens, it promises to be an emotional year for the Vanderbilt faithful.

2007 South Carolina Gamecocks preview

Steve Spurrier enters his third year as the coach at USC. He has said the team’s goal this year is no longer to have a winning record and to make a bowl game. The goal now is to win the SEC.

Offense

Senior QB Blake Mitchell is once again penciled in as the starter. Mitchell started off last year mediocre with the OL like swiss cheese and was benched for the mobile Syvelle Newton. Mitchell returned after halftime against Arkansas on a mission, throwing 10 touchdowns in the team’s final 18 quarters. Mitchell is an experienced accurate passer. He does not have a cannon, but can make all the necessary throws. He will be backed up by redshirt freshman Chris Smelley and sophomore Tommy Beecher. Star recruit Stephen Garcia may also get a look as a backup.

 

At running back, senior Cory Boyd is the star of the offense with Sidney Rice now in the NFL. Boyd gained over 1,200 all-purpose yards last year and figures to be one of the top running backs in the conference. Mike Davis, another established runner, also will get lots of carries as a junior. Scat back Bobby Wallace could get an occasional carry as a change of pace.

 

The offensive line is replacing three interior starters, but looks to be in better shape than it was at this time last year. Jamon Meredith is an all-SEC candidate at left tackle. Justin Sorensen is an established SEC lineman at right tackle. William Brown, a senior, has experience and will start at center. Left guard and right guard will be covered by either sophomore Garrett Anderson, senior James Thompson, former defensive tackle Lemuel Jean-Pierre, or redshirt freshman Kevin Young. Andy Boyd was 2^nd team all-SEC at TE last year and is an excellent blocker.

 

At WR, junior Kenny McKinley returns as the leader of the core. He had over 50 receptions and 800 yards as a sophomore. He will be depended on to make key receptions now with the loss of Rice. Spurrier compared sophomore Jared Cook to Calvin Johnson during the spring with his size and speed, but Cook needs to work on his route running and hands to become a dependable receiver. Possession receiver Freddie Brown and speedster Moe Brown will also get plenty of looks. Highly regarded freshmen Chris Culliver, Jason Barnes, and Dion LeCorn will get opportunities as well.

Overall, the offense looks to be in good shape, and with Spurrier in charge it could be hard to stop.

 

Defense

 

The defense is led by MLB Jasper Brinkley, an All-American candidate. Tyrone Nix enters his 3^rd year as the defensive coordinator with what could be a very stingy Gamecock defense.

 

The front seven looks as good as it ever has in Gamecock history. On the defensive line, star freshmen Ladi Ajiboye, Travian Robertson, and Cliff Matthews have been deemed unblockable by Spurrier during practice. Last year Eric Norwood was named a Freshman All-American and was the team leader in sacks last year with 7. Jordin Lindsey, Nathan Pepper, Marque Hall, and Joel Reaves are also established SEC defensive linemen.

 

At linebacker, Jasper Brinkley may be the top MLB in the country, and returns for his senior season. His twin brother Casper Brinkley had a solid season last year and will be moved from the defensive line to linebacker because of the depth. Freshman All-SEC Rodney Paulk will return as well. Dustin Lindsey, Marvin Sapp, and Cody Wells will all return to make up the two-deep at LB.

 

Captain Munnerlyn and Carlos Thomas are penciled in as the starters at cornerback. Munnerlyn made a positive impact as a freshman. Thomas struggled after being moved from offense last year but was improved towards the end of the year. Stoney Woodson, a junior, will be the nickelback. Emanuel Cook, another Freshman All-SEC player, is the starting strong safety. Brandon Isaac returns from a medical redshirt year to start his final year at free safety, and should be solid. Chris Hampton, Darian Stewart, and blue chip recruit Mark Barnes will back up at safety.

 

Special Teams

 

 

New special teams coach Shane Beamer (Frank’s son) will try to help the return game and blocking improve. There was a lot of practicing on blocking kicks in the spring, so some Beamer ball in the fall might be fun.

 

The return game was an area of concern last year. It did look better late in the year when Munnerlyn became the primary kickoff returner. 5 star freshman Chris Culliver will get opportunities to return as well. McKinley has been the primary punt returner the last two years, but with his increased responsibility at receiver someone else may get a look.

Ryan Succop returns as the all-purpose kicker. He was a Lou Groza semi-finalist last year, hitting 16 of 20 FGs with a long of 55. He is one of the best in the country, and is a weapon in a close game.

 

Outlook

 

Carolina has the #2 most difficult schedule in the country this year, with away games at Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Florida and arch-rival Clemson also travel to Columbia for games. Most experts are picking USC 4^th in the East behind Florida, Tennessee and Georgia.

The key game, as usual, is the 2^nd game of the year at Georgia. If USC can escape Athens with a victory, it may catapult them to being a legitimate contender. However, the team is probably a year away with the tough schedule. 9 wins would be a fair prediction and a good year.

2007 Alabama Crimson Tide

The Nick Saban Era begins, but as all eras do it will be with the last guy’s players for the most part. Mike Shula did a fair job of recruiting, but depth is a major concern, particularly on the defensive side of the ball where at some positions no experienced players return.

Offense

Nine starters return on offense, together with most of the top reserves. John Parker Wilson is the quarterback, coming off a season in which he set school records for yards and touchdowns. He should be a better fit for the new offense than he was for the last, though nobody actually knows what that offense will be. He may run more, but needs to stay healthy as his backup is redshirt freshman Greg McElroy and the only other scholarship quarterback around is an incoming freshman. Wilson’s two top receivers, DJ Hall and Keith Brown, also return. Hall set the school single-season record for receiving yards last year and if healthy should set basically every career mark this year. His fellow senior Brown was actually ahead of Hall’s pace until injuries struck in midseason. Receiver is the deepest position on the team with Nikita Stover, Will Oakley, and Matt Caddell all returning and I expect to see a lot of three and four receiver sets. Three experienced tight ends return. Travis McCall is the best blocker and was the starter last season. Nick Walker is a physical freak and could be a major asset in the receiving game, as could 6-7 third-teamer Charles Hoke.

Running back Ken Darby (after a catastrophic year in which he seemingly lost the ability to play football at a high level and Shula nonetheless kept giving him the ball) and fullbacks Le’Ron McClain and Tim Castille are all gone, leaving the backfield in flux. Four halfbacks are in the mix, and it’s entirely unclear who will come out on top. Jimmy Johns was at the top of the depth chart entering spring but had academic issues leading to a brief suspension. Glen Coffee, who missed last season with a knee injury, probably has the best all-around skills but lacks a single outstanding capability like Johns’ power or Terry Grant’s speed. Grant, who took a medical redshirt after three games last year, should play some sort of role but seems too small to be an every-down back. Roy Upchurch has shown flashes but has had to have surgery on each foot in successive years. Saban at LSU tended to ride whoever had the hot hand and showed no sentiment whatsoever (Darby would not have been allowed to keep starting without performing as he did last season) and likely all four backs will see significant time. No experience whatsoever returns at fullback, where walkon Baron Huber is listed as first on the depth chart. The offense was kept basically under wraps all spring and it seems likely that the Tide’s base offense will be either three receivers or two tight ends.

The starting offensive line all return, but the line was the weak spot on the team and played a major part in Shula’s firing. Andre Smith starred as a freshman and has left tackle nailed down. Heading into practice, the only other sure thing was that Antoine Caldwell would play somewhere. It seems that Caldwell will stay at center with Justin Britt and Marlon Davis the guards. Right tackle is still in flux, as oft-maligned starter Chris Capps missed spring with shoulder injury and converted guard BJ Stabler missed time with a persistent knee problem. It seems likely that someone else — perhaps Drew Davis — will take over the position.

Defense

More is known about the defensive philosophy than the offensive right now, but less about the personnel. The team is probably smaller (and faster) than Saban’s desired style, as that was departed defensive coordinator Joe Kines’ preference, and there will be a period of transistion. Alabama will switch to a 3-4, both because it’s Saban’s preferred scheme and because the team returns virtually no experience at all at defensive tackle. In fact, the starting nose guard, Brian Motley, spent last year as a redshirt practicing at center. Backup Lorenzo Washington played briefly in blowouts last season. Senior leader Wallace Gilberry returns at one end; it’s hoped that the new scheme will free him up more after last season, where he was constantly double-teamed. Bobby Greenwood, who split time last season, will start at the other end, though he’s a shade undersized for a 3-4 lineman. Brandon Deaderick, who has more prototypical size and arguably a better name, should back up both end spots, and can also slide inside if the team goes to a four-man line.

There’s little experience back at outside linebacker as well. Keith Saunders, who shared time with Greenwood last season, will play a combo rush end/linebacker spot ala Jason Taylor (or, for us old guys, Derrick Thomas). Converted wide receiver Zeke Knight showed flashes as a rush end last season before injuries took him out, and is listed at the other OLB. Prince Hall, a freshman All-American last year, will start at one inside spot and call the signals. Senior Darren Mustin, a transfer from Middle Tennessee, looks to be the starter at the other spot. The listed backups (DeMarcus Waldrop and Marcel Stamps) are both remarkably undersized at about 200 pounds, and it seems likely that someone else will emerge here.

The bulk of the defense’s experience is in the secondary, which returns two starters and several other veterans. Cornerback Simeon Castille is the defense’s most likely candidate for postseason honors after an All-SEC junior season. He was shaky in coverage early on but came on late. He’s more of a playmaker than a pure cover corner, and a switch to more zone coverage (and working with DB specialist Saban, who called himself a “graduate assistant” for the defensive backs this spring) should help him. Lionel Mitchell and Eric Grey are still in competition at the other corner, but Grey’s persistent injuries argue that Mitchell will take over that job sooner or later, though both will play. Saban will play a lot of nickel, and young players like Marquis Johnson and Kareem Jackson could make an impact. Marcus Carter returns at strong safety, while Rashad Johnson, who split time with Carter last year, moves to the free spot. Justin Woodall is the most experienced backup.

Special Teams

Jamie Christiansen missed time early in the 2006 season with a groin injury that probably cost the team the Arkansas game when legacy Leigh Tiffin missed several makeable field goals and an extra point. Christiansen will be back full strength and should handle placekicking and kickoffs. PJ Fitzgerald was unspectacular but the least of the team’s problems last year as the punter, and hasn’t been pushed so far.

Javier Arenas was the primary return man last year, and was especially effective on punt returns. Kickoff returns were a problem last year, as both Grant and Upchurch spent time flanking Arenas before getting hurt. Saban will try to use his best athletes in return roles and expect some surprises.

Coverage was a problem in 2006, especially on kickoffs, though the team grew better as the season went on. In part, this was caused by the lack of depth, which forced a lot of very young players and walkons into coverage roles, but also reflected a lack of discipline. Both should be less of a concern in 2007.

Coaching

Despite the Jesus Christ Superstar greetings for Saban in Tuscaloosa, he isn’t going to work miracles. The main thing he should bring is renewed discipline, which seemed a concern (particularly on offense) during the Shula regime. The off-field problems of several players (including Hall, Johns, and last year’s defensive stalwart Juwan Simpson) were one concern, but just as damaging were the numerous boneheaded mistakes that put the team in holes that Wilson had to dig out of. Shula’s loyalty was also a problem; while loyalty is a fine thing, it’s not exactly loyal to the other players on the team to stick by someone who is clearly struggling (like Darby and Capps) or to the players as a whole to stick by a coach who is over his head (like offensive line coach Bob Connelly). Saban’s loyalty, certainly, can be questioned, but he’ll make the tough decisions that Shula would not. The Darby situation is instructive; Saban, in similar positions at LSU, didn’t hesitate to ditch LaBrandon Toefield or Dominick Davis if they were struggling and he had a better option.

Major Applewhite was brought in from Rice as offensive coordinator and quarterback coach. The Owls played a wide-open, spread offensive style last season on their way to their first bowl appearance in about half a century, but only elements of that are expected to play a part in Tuscaloosa. Veteran NFL assistant Joe Pendry will be the offensive line coach and is also thought to take part in the offensive planning. Kevin Steele, former top FSU assistant, is the defensive coordinator, though Saban is expected to be the primary defensive mastermind.

Outlook

This is a “good schedule” year, with three of the four top rivals (Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU) visiting Tuscaloosa. Traditionally, that means that if the team is good they have a good chance at ten wins and a good bowl, but if they’re bad that means they’ll have to win games on the road against the Mississippi schools to have a decent season. Georgia also visits Tuscaloosa, taking Florida’s place on the schedule, while the Tide visits Vandy. The key stretch should come early in the season. After a tuneup with Western Carolina, the Tide makes the Nashville trip, hosts the Razorbacks and Dawgs, then plays a “neutral site” game in Jacksonville with Florida State.

All of those games are winnable, but winning them all is a tall order. If they come out of that stretch 4-1, they’ll be in great shape. My guess is that they can handle Tennessee on the Third Saturday; that’s followed by an off week and then what should be a war with LSU Nov. 3. The season, as usual, concludes with Auburn, this time at Auburn.

Overall, my guess is that the Tide will win the games in which they’re favored and pick off at least one upset in the games they’ll be underdogs (Georgia, FSU, Tennessee, LSU, Auburn). I’m saying Tennessee. That would be 8-4, probably a third place finish in the West, and a mid-level bowl — say Atlanta, for the KFC/Church’s Peach Bowl Presented by Popeye’s.

They could be a lot better. The basic theory here is that Shula was as bad of an offensive coordinator as he’s thought to be, and Connelly even worse as a line coach, and that their seemingly competent replacements, together with an experienced offense, should win games until the defense gets settled. Remember, though Alabama lost seven games last year, they led in at least five of them and lost one game by one point in overtime and two others by a field goal, so just slight improvements could seemingly lead to ten or more wins. I can’t go that far, not for a first-year staff in the SEC, but it’s happened before.

UPDATE (9/31): Things change. Brian Motley has broken his ankle, leaving the team with only two defensive tackles. Lorenzo Washington will start, backed by true freshmen. Terry Grant has apparently won the primary running back job. Jimmy Johns seemingly will be used as a combo back similar to how Shula used Tim Castille, playing both tailback and fullback, and also some H-back.

Prince Hall and Keith Brown have been suspended for the opener. Brown was already on the verge of losing his job to the surging Mike McCoy, who will start in his place. I still expect to see a lot of three and four receiver sets. True freshman Rolando McClain will start for Hall, and may battle for the full-time job afterwards. Saban won’t say what Brown and Hall did.

Mike Johnson won the right tackle spot, with Chris “Turnstile” Capps moved to backup left tackle. Saban is going with Leigh Tiffin as his starting placekicker; Jamie Christiansen is hurt, but apparently this was already in the cards. I guess Saban hasn’t seen the tapes of the Arkansas game.