2009 Georgia Preview

2008 will be remembered as a season with lofty expectations and a pre-season #1 ranking, but a brutal schedule, combined with key injuries along the offensive and defensive lines, felled Georgia’s expectations and the Dawgs ended the season at 10-3 with a uninspiring Capital One Bowl win over a lesser Michigan State team. Mark Richt managed to net another double digit win season, something commonplace in the Richt era, but after the 41-10 thrashing of overmatched Hawaii in the 2008 Sugar Bowl, more had been expected of the Dawgs.

The 2009 season sees key players gone to the NFL (among them the #1 overall pick, QB Matthew Stafford, star RB Knowshon Moreno, WR Mohammed Massaqoui, and cornerback Asher Allen), but also sees key players returning from injuries including one of the best offensive lineman in the country, Trinton Sturdivant, and defensive star Jeff Owens. The expectations are more muted this year, but this could be a classic unheralded Richt team that sneaks up to beat higher ranked teams. Richt also replenished the roster with another top 5 recruiting class including freshman wide receiver sensation Marlon Brown, who may see immediate playing time. The most glaring issue is that once again, Georgia faces the toughest schedule in the country starting at Oklahoma State with 7 BCS teams in row.

Offense

Losing three of the best offensive players in the country with the departures of Stafford (1st overall to Detroit), Moreno (14th overall to Denver) and Massaquoi (2nd round to Cleveland), definitely is a challenge, but not a killer by any means with an offensive line expected to be one of the best in the nation, led by left tackle beast Sturdivant.

The key to the smooth transition for Georgia is the steady hand of 5th year senior Joe Cox. Cox, once a star recruit out of Independence High School in Charlotte (along with H.S. teammate, Massaqoui) lost his chance to become the man for the Georgia team once Stafford arrived even more heralded from Dallas. Now, Cox finally gets his chance, and unlike Joe Tereshinski III (but like DJ Shockley in 2005), Cox can play, he’s extremely accurate, and most importantly, Mark Richt, offensive coordinator Mike Bobo, and the rest of the team have complete confidence in Joe.

Behind Joe, the Bulldogs are loaded with a Quarterback depth chart that includes super sophomore, Logan Gray, who’s so fast he’s been used on special teams, but also has great skills in the pocket and a cannon arm. But arguably the most talented Quarterback on Georgia’s roster is one of their two heralded incoming freshmen, Aaron Murray, who teamed at Tampa’s Plant High School with star tight end recruit Orson Charles. Murray is the guy most fans see as the next Stafford for this program.

One of the reasons Georgia can have such confidence is the return of super Sophomore AJ Green, who along with Alabama’s super sophomore Julio Jones gives the Southeastern Conference arguably two of the best wideouts in the country. Green is expected to have a huge year and should start it off with a bang in Stillwater against Oklahoma State, as the Cowboys don’t return any players from last year’s secondary.

Green’s help will arrive in the form of 5th year senior Mikey Moore, who was a pleasant surprise in 2008 catching several key touchdowns, and a couple of stud freshmen, in particular Marlon Brown, whom the Dawgs stole out of Memphis and from the evil grasp of Lane Kiffin. Also watch out for another freshman, Rontavious Wooten, a star in the making to get some early playing time, at least until senior Kris Durham returns from injury to help depth.

Georgia managed to bring in one of the top freshmen tight ends in the country with Tampa’s Orson Charles, a key addition to the 2009 Dawgs, especially considering Urban Meyer had been chasing Charles for months to come to Florida. The starting tight end will be solid Junior Bruce Figgins, a solid performer who isn’t as prone to drops as previous starter Tripp Chandler.

At running back, there are big shoes to fill with Knowshon Moreno’s early departure to the NFL and the Denver Broncos. However, Georgia has one fantastic “committee” with a number of players who can step in and be a star. The starter in that group will be Richard Samuel, whom most of the coaches watching him this Summer say he’s arguably the fastest running back Richt has had since arriving in Athens. Samuel is big and strong and most Georgia fans expect him to make a big name for himself this year.

The guy who was the expected starter and the big name coming out of High School is Caleb King, who was a RB legend in Atlanta on his way to Georgia. King is hurt and likely won’t play in the first game, but expectations are extremely high. Among the guys behind Samuel and King, Sophomore Carlton Thomas is small, but a total burner, reminding Dawg fans of Tyson Browning, while incoming freshman Washaun Ealey could also start right away with the speed and agility he’s shown. Depth and talent won’t be a problem and though it won’t be just one guy replacing Knowshon, it didn’t exactly hurt the 08 Alabama team to have multiple great RBs.

As previously mentioned, the talented and experienced Offensive Line will finally be anchored again by Junior Trinton Sturdivant. When Trinton tore his ACL in August of 2008, it was an ominous sign for the Dawgs season and many thought his career might be over. But Trinton will be back anchoring the line again in a few days. He’ll be joined by a group of experienced and talented lineman including Junior Clint Boling, Junior Chris Davis, and Sophomore Center Ben Jones.

Defense

Last year’s defense went in with rather high expectations after a great year in 2007, but thanks to a season ending injury to star (then Junior) Jeff Owens, plus, a serious of miscues and mental gaffes in big spots that brought seriously into question the level of preparedness being given from Defensive Coordinator Willie Martinez, the defense well under performed and against Georgia’s two most hated opponents, Florida and Georgia Tech, the defense performed miserably at the worst possible times.

Though the Dawgs lost several key players to the NFL including Cornerback Asher Allen, who left a year early and went in the third round to the Vikings, as well as DT Cory Irvin, DE Jarius Wynn, and star middle linebacker Dannell Ellerbee, the Dawgs get Jeff Owens back to anchor, and also back is arguably two of the best “hitters” in College Football, weakside linebacker Rennie Curran (a first team all SEC candidate) and free safety Reshad Jones.

Along with Owens, Curran and Jones, the Dawgs also have talented seniors Geno Atkins and Roderick Battle and senior Cornerback Prince Miller, and Junior Middle linebacker Darryl Gamble made a name for himself in 2008, when he picked off LSU Quarterback Jarrett Lee on the first pass of the game for a return touchdown in Baton Rouge, and later picked off a 2nd pass for a touchdown.

Also, watch out for Freshman Cornerback, Branden Smith. He’s a big time stud, was arguably one of the the highest rated recruits (along with Murray, Marlon Brown, and Charles), and could start and succeed now. Georgia has a lot of experienced talent so Smith may redshirt, but a kid to keep an eye on.

The biggest key to the defense however is actually the coaching and game planning of much maligned defensive coordinator Willie Martinez. This is a make or break year for Willie. If the defense plays great football all year long and cuts way down on the mental errors and turnovers, Willie will restore the luster and pride to the defense. But if the defense, despite all this talent, underperforms again, there will likely be a new D.C. in Athens in 2010.

Special Teams

K Blair Walsh looked great early on and then got sloppier down the stretch. He has a very strong leg and should be due for a great year. One thing the coaches have commented on over the Summer is that with Georgia bringing in a big time kicking recruit (from San Diego) in Brandon Bogotay, this is pushing Walsh and he’s been terrific in what they’re seeing.

The starting punting duties will be handled by a legacy for Georgia, as famed Kicker Kevin Butler’s son Drew will be the punter for the team. While not a lot has been seen yet by the younger Butler, his dad was a legendary performer who went onto to a great career with the Chicago Bears.

Last year, Georgia mixed an array of players on punt and kick returns, after the graduation the year before of the awesome Mikey Henderson. One of the players who really shined for the Dawgs was back-up Quarterback Logan Gray, who this year is listed as the #2 signal caller behind Cox, but the Sophomore may also see time in an array of duties, including some punt returns. One of the other guys widely talked about for return duties is RB Carlton Thomas.

Schedule

For the 2nd straight year, Georgia has amassed arguably the toughest schedule in the country. The Dawgs start off this Saturday with one of the two biggest games to open the 2009 season as they travel to top 10 ranked Oklahoma State in Stillwater. If Georgia can escape Big 12 country with a big road win, the Dawgs follow that up with 6 more BCS opponents with division rival South Carolina between the hedges, a tough road game at Arkansas, home dates with Pac Ten opponent Arizona State and (scarier) the next week when LSU arrives. Then the Dawgs have road games in Knoxville and Nashville to play Tennessee and Vandy, before finally getting a week off to prepare for the #1 ranked Florida Gators.

Georgia’s only cupcake comes a week after Florida when we host Tennessee Tech, but end the year with three more big rivalry games with home dates against Auburn and Kentucky, and then the in-state “pure hatred” match up against the always annoying, evil nerds of Georgia Tech.

The hope is Georgia that Georgia can get through those 12 games 9-3, and then win their bowl game for another 10-3 schedule.

Call me a wild eyed optimist, but I think Georgia will do one better and end the year 11-2. I am predicting losses (unfortunately) to Florida (though it will be close this year with the week off and a hopefully healthy OL) and at home to LSU and boldly picking wins for Georgia in the other 10 games – which would put us at 10-2 heading into a Bowl game.

Of course, with some of the departures, this team could be as down as 8-4 and I wouldn’t be shocked. It’s hard to predict.

-Alex R.

2009 South Carolina Preview

What a bizarre team. The 2008 Gamecocks led the nation in interceptions thrown and still made a January bowl game. That was no small part because of one of the better defenses in the country. USC lost 7 players to the NFL including much of the secondary and its two leading receivers, but will try to contend in the SEC East. The starting lineup, on both offense and defense, looks as talented on paper as anyone in the conference outside of Florida, but depth is a concern as untested freshmen and sophomores litter the 2nd team.

OFFENSE

Quarterback: This position should be much more stable this season with Stephen Garcia as the unquestioned starter. In fact, he is the only quarterback on the roster who has ever taken a snap in a game. Garcia was up and down as a freshman last season while getting significant playing time in the latter portion of the season. He led the team to a 4th quarter comeback win at Kentucky, but threw 3 INTs in the Outback Bowl against Iowa and was benched at halftime. The Gamecocks are depending on Garcia to stay healthy, to play well, and they will likely go as far as he takes them. The primary backup is Reid McCollum, a redshirt freshman. Garcia played well in the spring game and was a surprise pick as the preseason 3rd team All-SEC QB. If he sucks or gets hurt then USC is in big trouble.

Runningback: In 2008, USC had virtually no running game. The now graduated Mike Davis was ineffective (while likely playing injured), and Spurrier did not trust the underclassmen to hold on to the ball. The 2009 running game should be much improved. Brian Maddox is the incumbent starter and is an in between the tackles type runner. A pair of freshmen, Jarvis Giles and Kenny Miles, add a speed element that has been absent. Bryce Sherman, a walk-on from the track team, may get a chance as a returner as well as a few carries. Patrick DiMarco is the fullback.

O-Line: The offensive line has been miserable for Spurrier’s entire tenure at South Carolina. Spurrier brought in Eric Wolford from Illinois to coach the O-Line and to be the “running game coordinator.” The Cocks do have a couple of decent returning starters. The center, Garrett Anderson, was on the preseason Rimington List. The left tackle, Jarriel King, is developing into a solid SEC lineman. However, the other three spots are up for grabs. There are plenty of bodies: at least 15 offensive linemen are on scholarship. Wolford has some talent there, but it needs to be developed.

Receiver: The Gamecocks have an intriguing receiving core. Despite the departure of Kenny McKinley and Jared Cook, there are plenty of targets. Jason Barnes, Joe Hills, Tori Gurley, and Alshon Jeffery are all really, really tall. They should be able to come down with a lot of jump balls. Barnes and Moe Brown, the speedster of the group, are starters with experience. Weslye Saunders replaces Cook at tight end, but is plenty good and may lead the team in receptions.

DEFENSE

Defensive Line: The front 7 for the Gamecocks is the strength of the team. The defensive ends, Cliff Matthews and Clifton Geathers, will make lives miserable for opposing quarterbacks. Ladi Ajiboye is one of the top defensive tackles in the conference, though unfortunately for USC he is suspended for the first 3 games after being arrested in the spring for possession of marijuana. Nathan Pepper is the other defensive tackle and is a senior who is entering his 3rd year as a starter. Travian Robertson is a veteran tackle who will get a lot of playing time filling in for Ajiboye and Pepper (who has a bad knee). However, after the starting 4 and Robertson, the rest of the depth at defensive line is made of untested freshmen and sophomores. Hopefully nobody gets hurt.

Linebacker: The other part of the strong front 7 for the Gamecocks. Eric Norwood decided to return for his senior year. He is an All-American candidate and the leader of the defense. Rodney Paulk is an experienced middle linebacker who could have a breakout season. Alonzo Winfield is a speedy player who is penciled in at the spur position. Darian Stewart was the spur for the Gamecocks last year and DC Ellis Johnson prefers to play him here, however, Stewart is currently at strong safety replacing the departed Emanuel Cook. If Johnson determines that one of the freshmen are capable of starting at SS, then Stewart will likely move back to the spur position that he dominated last year. A pair of JUCOs, Tony Straughter and Josh Dickerson, along with Shaq Wilson are the backup linebackers.

Cornerback: This may be the biggest weakness of the 2009 Gamecocks. It is a talented group, but a very green unit, which could spell death in the SEC. Last year’s top 3 CBs, Captain Munnerlyn, Stoney Woodson, and Carlos Thomas all are in the NFL now. One of the new starters, Stephon Gilmore, is a true freshman. He was the top recruit this past year for USC, and has to start immediately. Gilmore was a high school QB and Spurrier has talked about using him in a Wildcat formation. He also may return punts. On the other side, Akeem Auguste and C.C. Whitlock are battling to start. Both were top recruits in the 08 class. Auguste played as a backup safety and played well last year. Whitlock played sparingly. All 3 of these guys will likely play a lot regardless of who starts. The primary backup is Addison Williams, who is experienced but has been burned frequently. D.J. Sweringer is another true freshman who will play.

Safety: The Cocks do have experience at safety with Stewart and Chris Culliver. Again, Stewart is currently listed as the starting strong safety but he may move to the spur linebacker position, depending on 2 talented true freshmen: Devonte Holloman and Demario Jeffery. If Johnson deems one of them ready to play, then they will start at strong safety. Chris Culliver, the fastest player on the team, will start at free safety, and is also the primary kick returner. His backup is Antonio Allen. USC is in good hands with this unit.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Culliver is the primary kick returner. He will be joined by Sherman, Auguste, or Gilmore. Auguste is likely to be the primary punt returner. The Gamecocks will miss kicker Ryan Succop, who is now kicking for the Kansas City Chiefs. Former walk-on Spencer Lanning was a solid punter last year and will now take over all kicking duties.

OUTLOOK

With a talented and young team, it’s hard to tell what USC will do this year. I’m not going to make any predictions other than to say they could win anywhere from 5 to 9 games. Having a bowl-eligible team for the school record 6th consecutive year is a good bet.

– Braves14

2009 Vanderbilt Preview

Fresh off its first bowl appearance in over a quarter-century (and first bowl win in over a half-century), the Vanderbilt football program has high expectations heading into 2009, and with good reason. The team returns 9 starters on both offense and defense, and while one potential impact player failed to qualify, most expect this year’s team to be better on paper than last year’s. Of course, this year’s schedule is more difficult, and the Commodores can’t expect all of the good breaks it got in posting a winning record last year, so whether that on-paper improvement translates into on-field improvement is yet to be seen.

Quarterbacks

While Bobby Johnson has yet to name an official starter, most around the program are confident that Larry Smith will be the man in 2009. Seen as the program’s future since he signed his LOI three years ago, the redshirt sophomore should, with the graduation of Chris Nickson, finally get a chance to show what he can do for a full season. Smith, who showed glimpses of his ability in the regular-season finale against Wake Forest and in more extended action against Boston College in the Music City Bowl, has a strong, very accurate arm and is elusive in the pocket, though not much of a running threat. He will be backed up by redshirt senior Mack Adams. Adams has been inconsistent throughout his career, but he knows the offense and is one of the better athletes on the team; he ought to be one of the better backups in the conference at the position. Redshirt junior Jared Funk will be third on the depth chart, while Parade All-American Charlie Goro ought to be able to redshirt as he learns the system in his first year in the program.

Running Backs

Last year’s starter, Jared Hawkins, returns and should be healthy for the start of his redshirt senior season. One of the more underrated players in the conference over the past few seasons, Hawkins is a tough runner who’s fast enough to be an effective back, when healthy; he’s had trouble staying that way for extended stretches throughout his career, though. Backing him up will be a trio of talented freshmen, Zac Stacy, Wesley Tate, and Warren Norman, all of whom have been very impressive so far this fall. Also getting carries will be redshirt juniors Gaston Miller, who is small and fumble-prone, and Kennard Reeves, who in practice and limited game action has always seemed like a potential weapon, but for whatever reason—possibly attitude, possibly pass-blocking failures—never gets an extended look. Look for the Commodores to run a lot more with the tailbacks and less with the quarterback in 2009; look for this to be a good thing.

Receivers & Tight Ends

The worst news of the offseason is that transfer receiver Terrence Jeffers failed to get eligible for the season, leaving Vanderbilt without what would have been its biggest offensive weapon in the all-conference-type playmaker. However, even without Jeffers and Justin Wheeler, the senior who’s career ended with a knee injury in spring practice, the Commodore coaches believe the receiving corps is going to be productive this year. Honestly, it can’t be any worse than last year. Redshirt senior Alex Washington has finally fully recovered from last season’s knee injury, and he’ll be the leader of the unit. A breakout season is expected from redshirt sophomore Udom Umoh, a speedster who will be counted on as a deep threat. Redshirt freshman John Cole and true freshman Brady Brown should see a lot of snaps, too. Filling out the rotation will be converted tight end Justin Green (a redshirt junior), redshirt freshman Akeem Dunham, and transfer Tray Herndon (a redshirt sophomore). All of these guys are going to need to produce with Vanderbilt incorporating a lot of no-huddle into their spread attack this season. At tight end, Vanderbilt will rely on redshirt sophomores Brandon Barden and Austin Monahan, both of whom are big and athletic; its one of the better tight end duos in the conference.

Offensive Line

Vanderbilt returns its entire starting O-line, led by captain Bradley Vierling at center and Thomas Welch, a 6’7” beast at left tackle who is likely to get more and more NFL attention as the season goes on. It will not be surprising if Welch’s stock rises to the point where he’s a first-round pick in April, as happened with Chris Williams two years ago. The line is expected to be a real strength this year, with redshirt sophomores Kyle Fischer and James Williams expected to push for starting time.

Defensive Line

The defensive line also returns all of its starters in 2009: redshirt senior ends Steven Stone and Broderick Stewart (who is healthy again after an ankle injury and will once again be a terror), and tackles Greg Billinger (a senior) and Adam Smotherman (a redshirt junior). Providing depth a will be junior Theron Kadri and redshirt sophomore Tim Fugger, an absolute freak of nature, along with redshirt sophomore T. J. Greenstone and a horde of redshirt freshmen. It seems strange to say it, but the D-line is probably Vanderbilt’s deepest position this year, and it could well be one of the better units in the SEC.

Linebackers

All the starters in the linebacking corps return for Vanderbilt in 2009, too, led by senior Patrick Benoist on the weak side and redshirt sophomore Chris Marve in the middle. (For those keeping track, that’s the entire O-line and defensive front seven returning for this season; and you wonder why folks in Nashville are optimistic?) On the strong side, both John Stokes and Brent Trice—another athletic freak—will see time. Stokes is probably the most technically sound ‘backer on the team, while Trice will be in to get after the quarterback on passing downs. Marve may already be the best linebacker in the conference and will be an All-American sometime in the near future. This is a very strong group.

Secondary

While the Commodores lost two big-time players, corner D. J. Moore and strong safety Reshard Langford, to the NFL, the unit returns more pro talent and has a few younger players ready to take over where the previous guys left off. Senior Myron Lewis, the 6’3” pro scouts’ dream who had five interceptions and five sacks last season, will shut down one side of the field before being a first-day selection in April. The second corner and nickelback positions will be split by sophomore Casey Hayward, who showed flashes of brilliance at the end of last season, particularly in the bowl game, and redshirt sophomore Jamie Graham, who was moved back to the defensive backfield, where his professional future lies, after spending a year at receiver due to depth issues in 2008. Providing depth will be true freshman sensation Eric Samuels and, if necessary, true freshmen Trey Wilson, Javon Marshall, and Eddie Foster. (Ideally, those three would redshirt, but the Commodores are thin at corner this year and that may not be possible.) Redshirt senior and all-conference performer Ryan Hamilton returns at free safety. The biggest concern is at strong safety, where Langford, who started for four years and was the unquestioned leader of the defense, has to be replaced, but the coaches love sophomore Sean Richardson and believe he’s up to the task. Redshirt freshman Micah Powell could be a player to watch at safety, as well.

Special Teams

Returning to handle the punting duties will be senior Brett Upson, the all-conference player and Music City Bowl MVP who was one of Vanderbilt’s biggest defensive weapons last season. With the graduation of VU’s all-time leading scorer, Bryant Hahnfeldt, the placekicking reigns will be handed over to redshirt freshman Ryan Fowler, the first scholarship kicker the Commodores have had in years. Fowler should be up for the job, but if he struggles, you could see Upson doing some placekicking, too. The return game, as seemingly always around this time of year, looks like a crapshoot. Among those with a shot to have an impact as a return man are Washington, Graham, Cole, and Foster.

Outlook

Overall, this should be a good team, again in the middle of the SEC pack. (Most don’t realize that Vanderbilt finished 5th in the conference last year.) The defense, which was 30th in the nation last year, may well be improved even with the losses in the secondary. It’s legitimately elite. The offense, which ranked 117th in 2008, can only get better. The special teams should once again be solid, if unspectacular. (At least this unit isn’t actively losing us games anymore.)

The schedule is a tough one, primarily because it features no bye weeks. By the end of the season, we might really be sucking wind. (Fortunately, almost none of our opponents have favorable bye weeks, but still.) As for the game-by-game breakdown, I see four definite wins (Western Carolina, Mississippi State, at Rice, at Army); one probable win (Kentucky); four toss-ups (Ole Miss, Georgia, at South Carolina, at Tennessee); two probable losses (at LSU, Georgia Tech); and one definite loss (at Florida). All in all, I’d say 6-6 and 7-5 are about equally likely; neither 5-7 nor 8-4 are out of the question, depending on the breaks. The most pivotal game of the season will probably be against Ole Miss on October 3rd. If we’re making it to another bowl, that’s a game we have to win, and we should, considering (a) the game’s in Nashville; (b) we’ve beaten them three times in the last four meetings; and (c) Ole Miss is incredibly overrated going into the season.

Considering all the positive program momentum Bobby Johnson and his staff have produced, both in the media and on the recruiting trail, it’s important to keep it going in that direction; I think we’ll be able to do that with this senior-laden squad.

–Stu

2009 Tennessee Preview

This has been, without doubt, the most interesting offseason for the Vols in my life time. For the first time since General Neyland was brought in to “beat Vanderbilt,” someone without past ties to the program takes over.

As everyone knows, Phillip Fulmer was forced to step down near the end of one of the worst seasons in Tennessee history. Fulmer was the dean of SEC coaches and finished with 100 more wins than losses. He brought the university a national championship and brought in the program’s most famous athlete. He went to Tennessee. He loved the school. He lived the dream of most East Tennessee boys and played for the Vols. However, when things end, they usually end badly.

Personally, I like Fulmer. I would rather win with Fulmer than anyone else. He loves the team the same way I do. In an era of mercenary coaches like Urban Meyer and Nick Saban, Fulmer was the last of a dying breed of guys who came home to coach.

However, I do agree with the decision. Fulmer wasn’t handling the media well. He wasn’t bringing in the level of athletes he once did. There were legal issues with the ones he did have. The Vols weren’t in sniffing range of Florida, Alabama or a BCS game. It was just unacceptable. Enter Lane Kiffin.

The hiring of Kiffin has brought a lot of attention to the Tennessee football program. Without a doubt, Kiffin won his first press conference. The line about beating Florida is a little over played because after he said it, he said AD Mike Hamilton told him to say something like that.

Quickly Kiffin brought in one of the best coaching staffs in the country. I would assume that Hamilton hired him based on the staff he would bring with him. In a matter of a few months the Volunteers assembled a top 10 recruiting class and landed number one prospect Bryce Brown.

Since then Kiffin has gone on a barn storming tour of the state and saying all the things the fans want to hear. While it has irritated coaches from Florida to Alabama and back, the fans are eating it up.

2009 Season

The first season of the “Kiffin Experiment” is going to be a difficult one. The Vols have inexperience on the offensive line and no one has stepped up to be “the guy” at quarterback. Both are huge problems that followed Fulmer to the door.

The defense finished the 2008 season in the top five in the nation. Led by all world safety Eric Berry and NFL coaching sensation, Monte Kiffin, the Vols defense should be a solid unit again.

Schedule

9/05/09 Western Kentucky 10/24/09 At Alabama

9/12/09 UCLA 10/31/09 SOUTH CAROLINA

9/19/09 At Florida 11/07/09 MEMPHIS

9/26/09 OHIO UNIVERSITY 11/14/09 At Ole’ Miss

10/03/09 AUBURN 11/21/09 VANDERBILT

10/10/09 GEORGIA 11/28/09 At Kentucky

I think the Vols will improve on last years 5-7 season. While the Vols did struggle on offense last season under Dave Clawson, I can’t help but think with the talent on that side of the ball won’t be better. Clawson’s scheme wasn’t very good and the players just didn’t buy in to it.

With that being said, I don’t know how good/ or bad this team is going to be. No one does. But this being a preview and all I will say the Vols beat Western Kentucky, UCLA, Ohio, Memphis, Vandy and Kentucky. Toss ups to Auburn, UGA, Carolina and Ole Miss. Eight wins and a trip to the Peach Bowl might not be out of the question. Nine wins might be a stretch. Seven or less would be viewed as another down year.

–Smitty

2009 Alabama Preview

The Crimson Tide surprised everyone last year by opening the season 12-0, moving from being unranked at the start of the season to several weeks at #1, before losing a heartbreaker to Florida in the SEC Championship Game and sleepwalking through a Sugar Bowl loss to Utah. Still, they are ahead of schedule in returning to national prominence, and only now is the bulk of the talent from Nick Saban’s consecutive top recruiting classes really coming on line.

Offense

Alabama loses its starting quarterback, who played almost every down for the last three seasons, and its leading rusher. However, there’s fairly little concern about replacing those losses, or the losses of the two top tight ends, including the team’s second-leading receiver. The talent is on hand to fill those holes. Of more concern is the loss of three offensive linemen, two four-year and one three-year starter, including two All-Americans, one an Outland Trophy winning first-round NFL draft pick.

John Parker Wilson holds essentially all of the Alabama career and single-season passing records. It never really got him a whole lot of respect, even from Alabama fans. Wilson’s so little regarded, in fact, that many think that his backup, junior Greg McElroy, will step in and be at least as good. McElroy played fairly well in an extremely limited role last year, and has shined in spring practice and some outside camps, but he’s taken, by my reckoning, one snap in a truly contested game in his career; I believe he handed off. It remains to be seen if he’s up to playing Wilson’s “game manager” role, much less actually make plays. If he can’t, there will be trouble, as the top backup is a redshirt sophomore walk-on, Thomas Darrah, who played very briefly in 2008; he has a strong arm but is an unknown quantity when it comes to actually playing. Behind him are redshirt freshman Star Jackson (whom some rumors have maybe changing positions), true freshman AJ McCarron, and sophomore legacy/scout team fodder Morgan Ogilvie. Jackson pretty much proved in spring that he’s not ready yet, though he may be used in limited “Wildcat” type roles, and McCarron probably won’t be physically ready for a couple of years, though he apparently has been impressive in camp. If anything happens to McElroy — and considering the hits he took, it’s a wonder nothing ever happened to Wilson — the Tide will be in trouble.

There is practically no concern about the early departure for the NFL of leading rusher Glen Coffee, who last year only rushed for as many yards as any Alabama runner not named “Bobby Humphrey”, 1,383 (tying Shaun Alexander for second on the Alabama list). The biggest reason why not is that top backup Mark Ingram rushed for 783 yards last season as a true freshman, averaging 5.1 yards a carry, and is expected to get stronger in his first full year in college. He’s joined by senior Roy Upchurch, who when he’s not injures is a force, averaging six yards a rush last year and playing an all-purpose role as both a lead blocker in short yardage situations and a pass-catching/draw-running third-down back out of the shotgun. Both are expected to be pushed by the prize of the recruiting class, Trent Richardson, ranked by some recruiting services as the top running back in the country. Richardson promises a combination of speed and size rarely seen in Tuscaloosa and should contribute immediately, though you can never tell with freshmen. Another freshman, Eddie Lacy, was considered academically questionable coming in, but he qualified and has been as impressive as Richardson in fall camp. Terry Grant, the leading rusher in 2007, played sparingly in 2008 and never seemed to get the hang of the offense. It remains to be seen if the coaching staff can find a role for him, as he would make a lot of sense as a change-of-pace back. Depth took a hit with the transfer of a couple of reserves who decided that between Ingram and Richardson they would remain reserves, but there should be enough left to have a deeper rotation than in recent seasons.

The Alabama receiving game last season was essentially Julio Jones, who as a true freshman had 58 receptions (departed tight end Nick Walker, with 32, was the only other player with more than 16) and 940 yards (fourth in school history, and almost three times as much as Walker’s second-place 324). Jones was everything he was supposed to be as the prize recruit of the 2008 class, providing both speed and physical pass-catching to earn all-conference honors. Behind him, though, it’s not even who the other starter, or starters, will be — it’s not even clear if Alabama will go with three receivers, or return to last year’s primary two-tight-end look.

As it stands, Mike McCoy is listed as a returning starter at receiver but plays almost a tight end role, prized more for his downfield blocking than his pass-catching skills. He’s the second-leading returning receiver with 16, but in his two years as a starter has shown little ability to make plays, averaging less than ten yards a reception. Hope for a big-play receiver to take the pressure off of Jones largely rests on the shoulders of Marquis Maze, who is undersized but is the fastest player on the team. Darius Hanks, who was a star in practice in the 2008 offseason, fell through the cracks for most of the season before coming on late. Beyond these four are Earl Alexander, a converted quarterback who has shown talent but also a tendency to get injured, and several freshmen. The assumption is that someone will emerge opposite Jones.

At tight end, the top man is senior Colin Peek, who was allegedly the best tight end on the team last year but was ineligible to play while sitting out a transfer year from Georgia Tech. Peek is big and can catch; in the previous seasons, Alabama really didn’t have a blocking/catching combination at the tight end position. Peek is going to play through a fractured foot; if he can stay in the lineup, he is very likely to finish second on the team in receptions.

Alabama’s base set last year was two tight ends, and they’ll use two or three a lot of the time no matter what, but who other than Peek will be involved isn’t clear. Sophomore Brad Smelley started last year as a redshirt but finished as a member of the playing rotation, and caught some passes from McElroy. He’s bulked up from last year and hopes to be more of an every-down player. Junior Preston Dial started one game last year, but may have been passed in the rotation. Baron Huber, the previous “starting” fullback who hardly ever played, is now listed as a tight end and is likely to be used when a lead blocker is needed. There are also two converted defensive ends, Michael Williams and Undra Billingsley, who could play the “extra offensive lineman” role.

The offensive line loses three starters, two of whom were All-Americans, one of them an Outland Trophy winner and top-ten NFL first round draft pick. The latter, Andre Smith, was greatly missed in the games he was unable to play – against Tulane with an injury and against Utah in the Sugar Bowl due to suspension. The former, Antoine Caldwell, was merely an all-conference center and four-year starter and a team leader. Throw in four-year starting guard Marlon Davis, and there are a lot of holes to fill, though Alabama returns all-conference left guard Mike Johnson and starting right tackle Drew Davis, both seniors.

At least one first-year player is going to start, possibly two. James Carpenter, a JUCO transfer, was in classes in the spring and started at left tackle in the spring game, and seems to have nailed down the position; if anything, he’s more secure than Davis. And mammoth (6-7, 350) true freshman tackle DJ Fluker, another recruiting prize, seems likely to play, possibly backing up both left tackle positions. Fluker is an incredible talent, but has only played offensive line for one year, having started out on defense in high school.

Center appears to be secured by William Vlachos, a junior who has backed up both there and at guard, but who at six feet even is considered too short for the latter position. The one position that hasn’t been settled yet is right guard. Early in camp, the leader seemed to be Alfred McCullough, a converted defensive tackle, but then sophomore Barrett Jones seemingly took over. And if Fluker continues to impress, Davis, who is stronger as a run blocker anyway, could move inside. Alabama offensive line coach Joe Pendry likes to keep his best five linemen on the field, which has probably helped the team as long as the top five remained together, but when players were lost, as Smith last year and as Caldwell and Davis were two years ago in the textbook fiasco, continuity often suffered as the survivors moved around. The top backups, other than Fluker, appear to be Brian Motley (who has played both center and nose tackle in his career but now seems to be a guard), true freshman Chase Warmack, and last year’s top backup, junior David Ross, who was beaten out by Vlachos at center.

Defense

The defense is expected to carry the load early on, both because it has more returning players and because it was the stronger unit last year. Only two players on the 2008 defensive depth chart ran out of eligibility, though several others have transferred out or gone on medical scholarship. Those two losses, however, were the team leader in sacks and the team leader, period, and replacing them, especially the latter, is key. The Tide also needs to strengthen the pass rush, which has been by far the weakest part of the defense under Saban.

Up front, it starts with All-American senior nose tackle Terrance Cody. Cody, who chose to forego the NFL draft though he was a likely first-round pick, has “slimmed” down to about 340 pounds – at his peak, he was over 400 — but “Mount Cody” is still going to have the size advantage on pretty much everyone, and is expected to continue to occupy two blockers on most run plays, and hopes to play more on passing downs this year. Junior Josh Chapman is his backup and usually came in on those plays last year; the strongest man on the team, Chapman would probably be a starter anywhere else in the country. (Of course, most teams use two tackles.) True freshman Darrington Sentimore was thought to be a defensive end coming in, but has been working at tackle and has been impressive there.

Despite the graduation of top pass-rusher Bobby Greenwood, there was relatively little doubt about the defensive ends coming in. Senior Brandon Deaderick, second on the team to Greenwood with four sacks, will flip from the combination DT/DE spot to Greenwood’s vacated pure end position, while top backup Lorenzo Washington, the 2007 starter at nose tackle, takes Deaderick’s place. The Alabama line was undersized for the 3-4 two years ago, but now possesses NFL type bulk, averaging well over 300 pounds, thanks to Cody. Top reserves are sophomore Marcel Dareus and junior Luther Davis, while true freshman Kerry Murphy – who has been trying to qualify at Alabama seemingly since Gene Stallings was the coach and has finally succeeded – is likely to play somewhere.

All four starting linebackers were expected to return, but after apparently losing his starting job at “Jack” (a combo DE/LB) Brandon Fanney left the team, while top inside reserve Prince Hall finally transferred after winning the Joe Namath Most Suspended Award three springs running. There is still plenty of talent available. In the middle linebacker spot, junior Rolando McClain is a preseason All-American who has started at this “defensive quarterback” position basically since he stepped on campus, and led the team last year with 95 tackles and 12 tackles for loss.

The other two returning starting linebackers will start somewhere, though where isn’t necessarily clear. At the weak (inside) position sophomore Dont’a Hightower was fourth on the team in tackles as a freshman, but with his size and athleticism has led the coaching staff to experiment with him at the Jack position. At the strong (outside) position, senior Cory Reamer is considered a bit willowy (6-4, 218) but is evidently held in high regard. If Hightower moves outside, he may more inside. Eryk Anders was used as a situational pass-rusher last year but has been working as the starter at Jack more often than not; right now, the default would seem to be the three returnees at their present positions and Anders replacing Fanney, with Hightower moving outside in clear passing situations.

The backups are universally sophomores and freshmen, usually with little experience outside special teams. Jerrell Harris, Chris Jordan, and Courtney Upshaw are the “veterans” of the group as true sophomores and all are talented, but being pushed by true freshmen Nico Johnson and Tana Patrick. This should be the first year since 2005 that at least one freshman hasn’t started the opener at linebacker for Alabama, but there’s every chance that at least one will be starting by the end of the season.

The defensive backfield returns three starters, but loses its leader, two-year starting safety Rashad Johnson, the team leader in interceptions and second in tackles. Johnson also directed the defensive backfield, sharing play-calling roles with McClain. However, both cornerbacks return. Javier Arenas spent most of his first two years at Alabama as a pure kick returner, but given the chance to try playing defense excelled, winning the starting cornerback position and starring, playing well enough that he’s a preseason award candidate and considered a possible first-round draft pick. On the other side, junior Kareem Jackson has started every game since he came to Alabama and suffered only on comparison to Arenas. Arenas usually moves inside to the “star” nickel position when extra defensive backs are employed. Last year, his backup, and the corner in these situations, was Marquis Johnson, now a senior, who was frequently burned. True freshman Dre Kirkpatrick is challenging Johnson, and fans, at least, hope he succeeds. Chris Rogers, like Johnson a senior, and BJ Scott, a converted wideout, are also in the mix.

At safety, Justin Woodall surprised many by stepping right into the position opposite Rashad Johnson, and played very well, intercepting four passes (second on the team) and recording 44 tackles (seventh). Heading into his senior season, he’s expected to take on some of Johnson’s leadership role. His playing role will be assumed by sophomore Robby Green, who played mostly special teams last season and who at 6-0, 180 is much slighter than your ordinary safety. Senior Ali Sharrief is the top backup, and will move around; Alabama may play three safeties much of the time in nickel and dime packages, with Sharrief moving up. Mark Barron, a prized recruit last year who played a good bit both on defense and special teams, is also in the mix, and some still expect him to eventually supplant Green.

Special Teams

Many Alabama fans were shocked to see placekicker Leigh Tiffin as a preseason All-SEC pick, because he isn’t generally considered that reliable. But there wasn’t really a returning kicker who stood out as better, and they have to pick someone there. Tiffin has worked on getting stronger to aid in kickoffs and longer fieldgoals, but his biggest problem has been consistency. In some games, he looks great, but in others he’s been a problem, especially against Arkansas two years ago, when his poor kicking cost the Tide the game, and against LSU last year, when potential game winner at the end of regulation was blocked and Alabama had to win in overtime. There’s no experience behind him and it’s his job to lose.

Punter PJ Fitzgerald is pretty faceless, but has improved in each of his years as the punter to the degree that he certainly isn’t a liability. He’s not the type of guy who booms kicks, but has been reliable and is pretty good at tactical kicking, getting the ball inside the ten or pinning returners against the sidelines. He also serves as the holder on placekicks.

Arenas returns for his fourth year as the primary return man after leading the conference in punt return yards and touchdowns last year. It’s not clear who will join him on kickoffs. Last year, it was often McCoy, for blocking purposes. This year, it could be any of the top four wide receivers. Certainly there’s an attraction to having Jones deep alongside Arenas, which really leaves the opposition with a dilemma on who to kick to.

Schedule

Alabama opens for the second year in a row with a neutral-site game in Atlanta against an ACC opponent, this year Virginia Tech. That will be a test right off; the rest of the nonconference schedule is minor-conference pushovers none of whom is supposed to be a challenge, but the Tide always seems to have one game where they play down to that level.

This is a “good schedule” year, with Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU traveling to Tuscaloosa, but the apparent rise of Ole Miss and decline of Arkansas and Tennessee changes that somewhat. As it stands, there are three top ten teams on the schedule, and Alabama plays one on the road (Mississippi), one at home (LSU) and one at a neutral site (VPI). Georgia cycles off the schedule, replaced by South Carolina, who come to Tuscaloosa in a potential trap game between the Rebels and Volunteers. Bama travels to Auburn to end the season; it’s impossible for me to predict what the Tigers will look like by then. Right now, the only game they’d maybe be projected to lose is against Ole Miss, but it remains to be seen how much the Rebels are for real and how much is hype.

UPDATE

Aug. 31: Depth Chart! Barrett Jones is the starting right guard, Mark Barron beat out Robby Green at safety after all. The offense is listed as two tight ends, with Brad Smelley the H-Back, though he’s a completely different type of player than last year’s H-Back.

2008 Georgia Bulldogs

Expectations. Coach Mark Richt is entering his 7th season as head coach and this is by far his greatest challenge. At the same time, he may be coaching his most talented group yet. But they simply don’t come more even-keeled than Mark Richt.

That word, “expectations”, comes with the territory when your school ends the 2007 season in a magical way, with 8 straight wins, an improbable run of dominance that nearly (and should have) led to an appeance in the BCS championship game, but did lead to another trip for Mark Richt (a 3rd) to the AllState Sugar Bowl and a 41-10 thrashing of undefeated (but overmatched) Hawaii.

With 17 returning starters, Georgia leads the majority of the polls (including the CNN/USA Today Coaches’ & the Associated Press Poll) and heads into the season as the #1 ranked team in the country with not one, but two Heisman Trophy contenders.

Of course, along with trying to meet expectations (and for many Georgia fans, nothing less than the BCS Title game in Miami on January 9th, 2008 will meet those expectations), comes the toughest schedule in school history, which includes an early season road game at Arizona State, and a four game stretch, later in the season, that includes back to back games in Baton Rouge (at LSU) and in Jacksonville (at Florida).

Offense

Most of the main players from last year return to this group with the two most key players back being legitimate Heisman Trophy contenders. First, there’s Junior Quarterback Matthew Stafford. Second, there’s Redshirt Sophomore Running Back Knowshon Moreno, arguably the most electrifying player in the nation, who in the last few weeks, has graced the covers of The Sporting News, Sports Illustrated and ESPN the Magazine.

Along with Stafford and Moreno, the Dawgs return Senior Wide Receiver Mohammed Massaqoui,the best Fullback in college football, Brannan Southerland, (who starts the season out for at least the first 3-4 games) as well as Senior Tripp Chandler, who started slowly for the Dawgs in 2007, but came on in a big way and seems to be continuing the tradition of Georgia being “Tight End U.”

Last year, the offensive line had to be completely rebuilt and a down year was assumed with so many new faces. However, thanks to the amazing work of one of the best Offensive Line coaches in the country, Stacey Searels, the offensive line was one of the best in the country by the end of the season and that effort was led by Senior Fernando Velasco and Freshman Trinton Sturdivant. The problem? Velasco (the vocal leader on the line) is gone and Sturdivant, the huge left tackle expected to be this year’s leader, may now be out for the year, barring any positive changes in the medical report.

Even more now will be expected from the increased depth that Coach Richt and his staff (including Searels and offensive coordinator, Mike Bobo, have been working hard on) especially from RG Clint Boling (suspended for the first game, this weekend), Center Chris Davis, and LT Kiantee Tripp, who’s filling the role for injured Sturdivant and has the versatility to excel.

One of the questions any good fan base asks is what freshmen can come in & compete and contribute right away. Thanks to the masterful recruiting job the last several years by Coach Richt, recruiting (guru) coordinator Rodney Garner, and other members of the staff (especially Bobo), Georgia’s Freshman class was once again in the top 5-7 in the nation (depending on which recruiting service you prefer, I prefer the ones not run by Tennessee grads) and several freshmen may come in right away on the offense.

Starting in the backfield, Knowshon Moreno has no shortage of help. First, there’s phenom Caleb King. King, a redshirt Freshman who was the #1 RB recruit in the country when he came to the Dawgs in January of 2007. He’s so big and talented that despite having a serious Heisman contender in Moreno, the Dawgs will be forced to get him in there. Of course, they may have both share time with one of two Freshmen sensations: Richard Samuel and Carlton Thomas, both of whom have exceeded the already big expectations they had, with commanding spring practice performances.

At wide receiver, the Dawgs lost talented veteran, Sean Bailey, but are loaded with veteran help for Senior Mossaquoi, but maybe no one will be more help than Freshman sensation, AJ Green. Along with Alabama’s Julio Jones, Green was the other top wide receiver recruit in the nation, and has already blown his peers away in practice.

Along the offensive line, the Dawgs added a lineman who’s performed so well so early (Ben Jones) Georgia may be forced to play the young man early. Depth is key with injuries and a few suspensions already getting in the way here early.

And though they won’t be in Athens until they arrive in the 2009 class, Georgia has already landed 2 of the top 8 Quarterbacks in the nation for next year: Zack Mettenberger. and Florida’s Aaron Murray. The staff continues to fill the ranks with talented stars keeping Georgia in contention, year in and year out.

Defense

If you think the offense is loaded with stars and firepower, meet the 2008 Georgia Bulldogs defensive unit. This is arguably the fastest defensive unit in the nation, and the same unit that sacked Florida golden boy Tim Tebow 6 times (on his way to a Heisman.) Another Heisman contender, Hawaii’s Colt Brennan, looked like a Division III scrub after our defense was done beating the heck out of him in the Sugar Bowl. Interestingly, Brennan sought Tebow out for advice at the Heisman ceremony in New York about Georgia’s defense. Tebow must have explained how to properly eat grass every time one of our guys plants you in it.

Leading the defense will be Linebacker Darnell Ellerbee, a special and fast hitter, who seems to play his best in the biggest games. But Ellerbee has a LOT of help – to say the least. Georgia only lost one starter from 2007 (Marcus Howard, who was terrific) but bring back a veteran crew of talented players, many of whom will be on the All America watch list.

Along with Ellerbee, linebackers Akeem Dent and Rennie Curran — a small but super fast hitter — who came on late and punished opposing offenses with his quickness and striking ability. Along the line, another powerful group of dangerous veterans return for the Dawgs. Leading the way is Senior DT Jeff Owens, who’s considered a potential major breakout star this year and who — according to the AJC — will be a contender for the Outland and Nagurski awards. Several players will be teaming up with Owens to smash opponents, and none more so than Junior DT Geno Atkins, also a legitimate contender during the awards season.

The secondary is just loaded as well. The leader of this unit is Junior Asher Allen, who came into his own last year and is now one of the most feared cornerbacks in the nation, giving opposing wide receivers nightmares. Teaming with Allen in this talented unit will be Free Safety Reshard Jones, the other leader of this group as only a redshirt Sophomore.

The leader of the unit is defensive coordinator Willie Martinez. Martinez has experienced his share of growing pains, but grew up with the defense after last year’s embarrassing loss to Tennessee. Martinez led the defense the rest of the way to arguably the best performance by any team in the country, the last 8 games, finally, fully, earning the confidence of Dawg Nation. For a long time, many Dawg fans missed the intensity of former DC Brian Van Gorder. Martinez seems to have finally come into his own and has a chance now to be one of the best coordinators in the country.

Special Teams

The kicking game, arguably the most important part for any team trying to win close games (and Georgia will have many this year with their schedule), lost a kid with potentially the strongest leg in America, Brandon Coutu. Coutu will be missed, but Freshman Blair Walsh showed off an incredibly strong leg during spring, and Coach Richt appears to have full confidence in Walsh ably filling Coutu’s shoes.

Returning to lead the punting is proven senior Brian Mimbs, who showed himself a smart distance kicker last year.

The big question is, among the various speedsters Georgia has to choose from, who will take super fast and shifty Mikey Henderson’s place to return punts. Along with Henderson’s graduation, senior tailback Thomas Brown (now with the Falcons) was the leading kick returner and will also have to be replaced.

Asher Allen got a lot of experience returning kicks last year and will be back in that role, more often than not. As of the end of spring practice, rumors (and now possibly fact) at who will now be returning punts, Mark Richt has apparently decided that his team’s best all around player, running back and Heisman contender Knowshon Moreno, may just be the man for the job. And why not? Considering how many defenses Moreno destroyed last year, getting the ball in his hands as often as possible seems like a pretty good idea.

Outlook

Well, if everything goes according to plan, we should go 12-0, roll through this schedule and after blowing out LSU or Auburn in the SEC Championship game, roll through Ohio State (like everyone else in the SEC) , USC, or Oklahoma in the National championship game.

But wait, we do have to now deal with the hardest schedule in the nation and no matter how biased I am and how much I love my Dawgs, I don’t see how we can run the table, unblemished. I am a realist.

The scariest game on the schedule (as always) will be Florida. The Gators return Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow and a 2nd contender for that award in Percy Harvin, and have generated faux anger over our end zone celebration, as written about by Urban Meyer in “Urban’s Way”, a self help book for all Gators who couldn’t get over losing to us in 2007. And though I make fun, this game (IMHO) is the toughest game on the schedule. The Gators are loaded and our best opponent.

You look at games like at Arizona State or at LSU, where we are the better team, but based on the timing of the game, the travel involved, or the location, and the better team may lose. LSU is dropped a little in my eyes with the loss of Quarterback Ryan Perrilloux. Auburn is also another big time rivalry game and they are expected to be a top 20 level team, and a new Quarterback actually helps them – the Dawgs will deeply miss slow-moving target Brandon Cox.

Then, there’s also games with South Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. All games the Dawgs should win and are clearly the better team on paper, but all teams capable of beating us in the ever tough Southeastern Conference.

In the end, I will say 11-1 and I believe in Mark Richt and I believe in this team, and despite a loss somewhere along the way (yes, maybe Jacksonville), the Dawgs will make all of us Georgia fans believe and head to Miami to play for the BCS championship. Of course, this caveat always depends on good health, which is why it’s so important that Georgia is blessed with wonderful depth.

–Alex R.

2008 Ole Miss Rebels

Football season is actually exciting again in Oxford for the first time since about ‘04. The Rebels actually have the chance to be interesting again thanks to a legitimate coach coming in and replacing the worst head coach in the SEC in at least 30 years. Ed Orgeron made Brad Scott want to dust off his resume.

Offense

At quarterback the Rebels plan to start a highly rated transfer who played well as a freshman at a large public university that goes by “UT.” If this sounds familiar, its because it was tried in 2006 with Tennessee transfer Brent Schaeffer. With horrid results.

Enter Texas transfer Jevan Snead. Jevan is still a great mystery to me. I wasn’t overly impressed at the spring game with a very bland offense and little blitzing he’s timing seemed off with the wide receivers. He’s still looked better than any quarterback the Rebels have started since Eli Manning. Snead’s had a great fall camp according to the rave reviews of Houston Nutt and offensive coordinator Kent Austin. Thanks to Orgeron’s inability to sign quarterbacks he’s really all the Rebels have. If Snead gets hurt there’s only Billy Tapp (not likely to ever take a meaningful snap) or true freshman Nathan Stanley (who played last season at a Indian tribal school in Oklahoma going against pretty weak competition.)

The Rebels do return numerous lettermen at wide receiver. Shay Hodge is the best position receiver, Mike Wallace is the deep threat, and the diminutive Dexter McCluster is the elusive slot back that will play qb some in the “wild rebel formation.” (Honestly, I hate that name.) Markeith Summers is expected to also get extended playing time. While the group is overall solid none of the receivers would be labeled as an elite receiver. Tight end is in a desperate shape as all the Rebels have is a converted offensive tackle and a juco transfer. Look for the juco, Gerald Harris, to start by default.

Luckily David Cutcliffe left a few linemen behind for running game guru Mike Markusson. The starting Offensive line is pretty good. Left tackle is anchored by preseason All American Michael Oher. John Jerry moves from right guard to right tackle and looks to be a solid NFL prospect as well. Mo Miller and Reid Neely are returning starters in the guard slots. Center looks to be manned by junior Daverin Geralds and should be solid. Rishaw Johnson and sixth year senior Daryll Harris are solid guard backups. Other than that though its a huge drop off since the former coach who was better adapt to work on a shrimp boat couldn’t recruit offensive lineman.

The running back position is one of the few with real depth. Cordera Eason had a superb spring game and a solid fall camp and looks to be the starter this fall. However he has little game experience (9 carries) since Orgeron preferred to play BenJarvis Green Ellis despite the fact that the players routinely said Eason looked better in practice. Eason looked awesome in the spring game showing the ellusive speed Green-Ellis never could by breaking off a few long touchdown runs. Backups who have gotten good reviews in fall camp include Derrick Davis, Brandon Bolden, and last recruiting season’s top prize Enrique Davis.

Throw in Markuson’s known ability for great running games, the starting o-line, Eason, and biggest rated signee ever Enrique Davis, and its hard to see the Rebels not having a solid running game. If Snead lives up the hype and the receivers play well the Rebels could have a surprisingly decent offense.

Defense

The Rebel’s will surprisingly have one of the best defensive lines in the country. About the only thing Orgeron could do was get defensive linemen on campus. The rest of his recruiting was largely on paper but here he did a great job and we actually have more quality depth than most teams in the country. The Rebels have taken a few shots at this depth during fall camp but luckily the bulk of the injuries have occurred here. Pre-Season all sec pick Greg Hardy went down with a stress fracture in his foot and will miss six to eight weeks. He’ll be back just in time for the bulk of the SEC part of the schedule. Marcus Tillman can start at either defensive tackle, like he did as a freshman, or defensive end, like he did as a sophomore, and is a superb run stopper. Kentrell Lockett is better than most backups and will start while Hardy’s out. Emmanuel Stephens, a pass rushing specialist, and Chris Bowers give further quality depth at end. At tackle the Peria Jerry is also banged up some but looks to play. Ted Laurent was slated to start but hurt his knee. Luckily it occurred early and after a scope he looks like he’ll play against Memphis after all. 57 year old true freshman Jerrell Powe was also cleared to play. We were good without Powe but mix him in and it can get dangerously good once he gets going. Lawon Scott provides further depth and Justin Sanders provides the cockfighting angle. True freshman Justin Smith and Gerald Rivers had great fall camps and may or may not get to see some action.

Unfortunately after the line it drops of a bit. The projected starters are Ashlee Palmer at weakside, Jonathan Cornell at middle, and Allen Walker at strongside. Cornell started the first two games last year before going down to injury against Missouri and receiving a medical redshirt. Walker was highly recruited but yet to reach his potential. Ashlee Palmer was a juco transfer last year who played well. Backing up Cornell is juco transfer Tony Fein, who finished the year last year as the starter and is a great run stopper but struggles against spread teams. Former Auburn player Patrick Trahan is backing up the other two positions and looks to get a lot of playing time.

Houston Nutt has listed the secondary as the weak point of the team and what needs the most improvement. Last season the Rebels were one of the worst teams in turnover margin and interceptions. To help he moved two offensive players, Marshay Green and Jeremy MacGee, to cornerback and both look to be the backups. Starters look to be Doustin Mouzon and Cassius Vaughn. Jamarca Sanford returns to start at strong safety for the fourth straight year. Either Kendrick Lewis or Johnny Brown will start at free safety. The Rebels have little depth beyond nickel back Terrell Jackson.

So I’d expect the Rebels to struggle on defense against the spread passing and other good passing teams but perfom better stopping the run. So its good Missouri goes off the schedule.

Special Teams

The kicking game will more than likely be horrid unless the freshman kickoff guy from North Carolina, Bryson Rose, shows up and finds a way to kick it beyond the thirty five yard line. Field position routinely killed the Rebels last year. Whichever of the three scholarship punters wins the job they don’t look to improve much over last years last place in the league. Junior place kicker Joshua Shene suffered through a down year last season but it was subsequently reveled that he was kicking with a torn hamstring that Orgeron refused to let him rest during practice instead preferring for him to perform in drills with the position players. Hopefully he can rebound to freshman form where he was dead on from mid range inwards.

For a team with five kickers on scholarship they have little to show for it.

Schedule
Its a huge swing year because it could vary greatly between best achievable results and worst achievable. For example last year I wrote that best we could hope for was 6-6 but that was unlikely and I actual prediction was 2-10. I wasn’t far off. This year I think 8-4 best case and 4-8 worst case.

Biggest reason for that is they have no depth. The Rebels are one or two critical injuries away from the entire season falling apart. Nutt can’t let one of the offensive tackles, linebackers, fullbacks, tightends or Snead get hurt. Subpart to the lack of depth is some teams will wear Ole Miss down just by greater numbers. Specifically Florida, Auburn, & LSU will present a great disadvantage to the Rebels and its hard to see them winning any of those games. Additionally the Rebels are cursed in Tuscaloosa so its hard to predict that as a win. Wake is the most obvious loss to me. They are too efficient and its the second game. If was later in the year I’d give Ole Miss a better chance.

So where does that lead the Rebels. Throw in that Nutt finds a way to win a big game every year that he has no business winning. So I think he could find a way to win one of the Auburn, LSU or Alabama games. I don’t know which one. Auburn’s at home, Ole Miss always shows up for LSU because they are the biggest rival and Nutt usually finds a way to give them a good game. Orgeron took Bama down the line the last three years so maybe the addition of Nutt could push them over the edge. I wouldn’t count on one of those though.

I don’t see Nutt who’s never lost to Croom and only lost to Mississippi State once in ten years loosing the Egg Bowl at home. Plus I’d expect State to take a huge step back this year as they had one of the luckiest seasons imaginable. Plus their spring game had to go into over time so that they could have one side score a point to break a 0-0 tie. If Orgeron can go 3-0 against Memphis, a coaching staff comprised of the Braves Journal top ten posters could. Samford and La Monroe should be gimmies. Vandy is still Vandy and its at home. They may have more depth but not as much elite talent. South Carolina is the big flip game. They will be better and the Rebels need to win it at home. I don’t think Nutt will let himself loose to Arkansas on the first return trip. He’ll have too much inside info on the team and has plays drawn up that he knows will hurt their personnel. Plus you know he’s got that one circled.

So I’ll go 7-5 and a trip to Memphis for the Liberty Bowl if the key players stay healthy.

–George

2008 South Carolina Gamecocks

Offense

Steve Spurrier’s offense has been caught up with by SEC defensive coordinators. The past 3 years, it has been a decent but unspectacular group. Spurrier is even giving some of the playcalling duties to his son, Steve Spurrier Jr., but he plans to oversee the offense and spend more time coaching the quarterbacks.

Quarterback

Tommy Beecher, a junior and long-time backup, was named the starting QB after having the best spring practice on the team. Accounts are that he has the best arm on the team and has decent mobility, and that he continued having good practices in the fall. He is extemely intelligent and has been in the system the longest out of the other quarterbacks, so he gives USC the best chance. Sophomore Chris Smelley was 4-2 as a starter last year and is a capable backup. The position is a question mark because of a lack of experience but the talent is there to do well.

Runningback

Mike Davis, an experienced senior, is the unquestioned starter. He is a solid if not flashy back. He doesn’t have breakaway speed, but near the goal line he always finds a way to get into the end zone. He should move into the top 10 USC leaders in career rushing yardage after the season. Brian Maddox, a talented but untested sophomore is the primary backup.

Wide Receiver

Senior Kenny McKinley is a potential All-American, and has a shot at breaking a ton of records including career receptions (school and the SEC), career receiving yards, and career touchdown receptions. Speedy junior Moe Brown has always had trouble catching the ball in games but shows out in practice. He did play better at the end of the season, and could have a breakout 2008. Sophomore Dion LeCorn emerged as the #2 receiver at the end of last season but hasn’t done as well in the spring and fall as Brown. Freddie Brown, a junior, usually catches what gets to him but he has trouble running good routes and getting open. Jason Barnes, Joe Hills, and Matt Clements are all talented young players looking for some playing time as well.

Tight End

USC has potentially both of the best two receiving tight ends in the conference, junior Jared Cook and sophomore Wesyle Saunders. Cook is 6′5, 245 lbs, and can fly. He could enter the draft and be a 1st or 2nd round pick after the season. Saunders is a huge player–actually recruited as a DE–and is very fast for his size. If the WRs other than McKinley have trouble stepping up, Beecher can look to these guys for help.

Offensive Line

This is the biggest question mark on the team. They were the primary reason that the Gamecocks were dead last in the SEC in rushing yardage and that Gamecock quarterbacks had to hurry to get rid of the football. They could make or break the 2008 season. In 2007, only 2 lineman started all 12 games, and those 2 are returning senior tackles Jamon Meredith and Justin Sorenson. They were adequate at best last year. Heath Batchelor, a sophomore, emerged as the starting right tackle at the end of the season. The other spots appear to be a revolving door, although they seem to be improving in practice as some of the younger players are developing.

Defense

Ellis Johnson is the new defensive coordinator after coming over from Mississippi State. He inherits a very talented defense that could be one of the top groups in the conference. The key will be stopping the run, as this was one of the major reasons for the 5 game collapse at the end of last season. Johnson has been using a 4-2-5 defense to help counter the spread and plans to use it as his base defense.

Defensive Line

Sophomore Cliff Matthews, a very talented player, will start at defensive end. He played outside linebacker last year just so he could get on the field. He will likely have a breakout year. Jordin Lindsey will return from academic problems to start at the other side in his last year of eligibility. He is a solid but unspectacular player. At defensive tackle, Ladi Ajiboye won accolades as a freshman and will man one of the spots. Nathan Pepper returns from a knee injury to start at the other tackle position. This should be a pretty solid group.

Linebacker

This could be one of the top linebacker cores in the nation, if the players are not too heavy. There are two All-American candidates here: senior Jasper Brinkley and junior Eric Norwood. Brinkley is returning from a knee injury and Norwood is making a switch from DE. Both players weigh in the mid 260’s, so speed may be a bit of a concern. However, both players have a reputation for being all over the field, and with the new Spur position on defense, they may not need to worry about covering any receivers. Rodney Paulk, who had started 22 games in his first 2 years, and Gerrod Sinclair are more than capable reserves.

Spur

This is the new position that is being used in the 4-2-5 defense. It is a sort of hybrid LB/S role. Junior Darian Stewart, last year’s starting FS, is pencilled in here. Stewart is a good tackler and a solid cover player. He will be backed up by former WR Larry Freeman and true freshman Antonio Allen.

Cornerback

The Gamecocks’ defensive secondary was one of the top rated groups in the country in 2007, and has everyone returning. Captain Munnerlyn, one of the top CBs in the SEC, returns to shut down one half of the field. Seniors Carlos Thomas and Stoney Woodson are both solid players and will split time playing the other corner position and the nickel. Sophomore Addison Williams and true freshman Akeem Auguste are talented young players who provide depth.

Free Safety

Chris Culliver, the fastest player on the team, was recently named the starter here. The sophomore was ranked 3rd in average kickoff return yardage in the SEC last year, and all accounts are that he can hit. Backing up the former 5 star recruit will be redshirt freshman Mark Barnes, a talented player in his own right.

Strong Safety

Junior Emanuel Cook terrorizes any receiver coming across the middle. He can put a nasty hit on anyone. With the Gamecocks’ struggles stopping the run last year, he was the leading tackler on the team in 2007. Cook may be the top SS in the conference. He will be backed up by junior Chris Hail.

Special Teams

After several blocked punts at the end of the season and continued problems with coverage, Spurrier brought in coach Ray Richleski from Maryland. Maryland traditionally had one of the top ST units in the country. Richleski stresses playing assignments. He will get lots of help from senior placekicker Ryan Succop, a kicker with a strong leg who is a Groza candidate. Culliver will be the primary kick returner and Munnerlyn is the primary punt returner. Bad field position has been a big problem for USC over the years, and look for better starting field position this year.

Outlook

I’m not going to make any predictions here, but instead I will list sure wins, probable wins, toss-ups, and probable losses in this year’s schedule. 8-4 would be a realistic record for the year.

Sure Wins
Wofford
UAB

Probable Wins
NC State
Vanderbilt
Ole Miss
Kentucky
Arkansas

Toss-ups
Tennessee
Clemson

Probable Losses
Georgia
LSU
Florida

-Braves14

2008 Alabama Crimson Tide

The Saban Era began little different than the Shula Era ended — with a 6-6 regular season and an Independence Bowl trip. This time, the Tide left glamorous Shreveport with a win, which is progress of a sort. The team suffered from some of the same problems as in 2006, in particular a tendency to start strong and finish poorly both in games and in the season as a whole — which again ended with a losing streak in November. The offseason was marked by both a top-ranked recruiting class and by embarrassing off-field incidents, in particular the discovery that runningback-turned-linebacker Jimmy Johns was a major cocaine dealer.

Offense

As has been the case the last two years, most of the returning experienced talent is on offense; Shula, an offensive coach, recruited much more strongly on that side of the ball and essentially left the defense in the hands of his coordinator. Jim McElwain comes over from Fresno to take over the offensive coordinator job. He supposedly will stress a more ball-control oriented passing game than predecessor Major Applewhite, but the offense probably won’t change too much; it’s more Saban’s offense than anyone’s.

Senior John Parker Wilson is the unquestioned quarterback, even though he regressed last season. Fans called for his head several times, in particular after the embarrassing Louisiana-Monroe loss, but Saban indicated that none of the other quarterbacks on the roster was remotely capable of playing. One of those quarterbacks, sophomore Greg McElroy, seems to have settled in as the backup and is garnering praise from the coaches for the first time. Saban has said that he won’t use touted freshman Star Jackson in a running package (ala Tim Tebow in his freshman year, or Ryan Perrilloux last year) and his chances of playing basically come down to waiting for Wilson to get hurt.

Runningback was a problem area last year. Terry Grant played well early on, but was slowed by a “sports hernia” (I am not convinced that this is a real thing yet; it just seems to have started happening a few years ago) late in the season, and is considered too small for an every-down role or between-the-tackles running anyway. Glen Coffee was the other primary ballcarrier early in the season, but was suspended for a rules violation beginning with the Tennessee game. After that game (in which Grant shone) the Tide basically had no running game to speak of, and Wilson couldn’t carry the offense on his own. This year Alabama is expected to use Grant in a “scatback” role, trying to get him the ball outside the tackles, with Coffee and someone else, such as true freshman Mark Ingram (son of the former Giant) sharing the Mr. Inside role. Like most plans, this probably won’t survive contact with the enemy. Coffee will apparently be the “starter”; he doesn’t really do anything well, but does everything okay. As many as six different backs could share carries in various alignments.

Last year’s receiving corps was basically DJ Hall (holder of virtually every school receiving record) and a couple of other seniors, so this year’s staff will be mostly new. Junior Mike McCoy started most of the time but was wildly unproductive, catching a variety of short passes, none of which he seemed to break for significant yardage; he was more valuable as a downfield blocker than a receiver. He has practiced well and is the one given in this year’s corps. The jewel in the recruiting crown, Julio Jones, will play some role; he’s already dazzled everyone in practice and is on a different physical level than everyone else. Other than McCoy, the only returnee with significant playing time is senior Nikita Stover, but he seems to have been swamped by a sea of newcomers and little-used underclassmen. The Tide will probably use a three-receiver set as its base offense, and cycle through five or six receivers most of the time; I would guess that in addition to McCoy and Jones, sophomores Darius Hanks and Earl Alexander, redshirt freshman Marquis Maze, and true freshman BJ Scott will be prominent. Hanks was the starter in the slot role in spring, but both Maze and Scott have worked there this fall. For seemingly the 25th year in a row, coaches have promised to get the tight end more involved in the offense; seniors Nick Walker and Travis McCall will share time, and both will be on the field on a high percentage of snaps, with McCall often playing a lead blocker or H-back role in place of a fullback.

The offensive line returns four starters, though it wasn’t until fairly late in the process that their exact alignment became clear. Junior Andre Smith, an Outland candidate and the team’s best player, was always a lock at left tackle, where he’s started every game the last two years. Antoine Caldwell, another all-conference performer, will play center, at least to begin with; he’s played every line position but left tackle the last two years. Fellow senior Marlon Davis is the right guard; he and Caldwell were suspended in the same textbook scandal that took out Coffee last year, and the absence of the team’s second- and third-best offensive linemen, together with the lack of depth this caused, was a prime motivator in the late-season collapse. Junior Mike Johnson was the right tackle most of last year, but is better suited inside, and will start at left guard. Right tackle has been a revolving door and a horror show for the last few seasons. Junior Drew Davis won the job in the spring and it’s hoped he’ll settle the position. Depth on the line remains a concern; a warning sign would be if Caldwell starts moving around again. Junior Evan Cardwell, who has mostly played center and started about half the time last year, is the most experienced reserve. As everywhere, there are talented freshmen who could see playing time, led by tackle Tyler Love.

Defense

Saban went with a 3-4 scheme last year partly out of necessity (a lack of experience and depth on the defensive line) and partly out of desire. He still doesn’t have quite the talent to work with, but is getting there; the biggest problem is to get any sort of pass rush from the front seven. Three players who started last year — NT Lorenzo Washington and ends Bobby Greenwood and Brandon Deaderick — return on the line, though the team’s best lineman, Wallace Gilberry, has graduated. Only Deaderick, who displaced Greenwood roughly halfway through the season and this year takes over at Gilberry’s RE spot, really has 3-4 lineman size. The mountainous Terrance Cody, a JUCO transfer, certainly does (he weighed nearly 400 pounds when he hit campus, though he’s down to about 365 now) and has apparently won the starting job at nose tackle, displacing Washington to end. Redshirt freshman Josh Chapman will back up Cody and probably play nearly as much. A number of freshmen and little-played sophomores are likely to get time, with true freshman end Marcel Dareus perhaps the man to watch; the team still lacks experienced depth here, as it does almost everywhere.

Linebacker looked to be a strong spot of the defense coming off of last season, but when fall came only sophomore middle linebacker Rolando McClain was left from last year’s unit. In addition to Jones, who was fighting for a first team spot prior to his arrest, returning OLB Zeke Knight saw his career end due to a heart ailment, and junior ILB Prince Hall, who much of last year was in the doghouse for both off-field and on-field disciplinary issues, didn’t participate in spring practice. He’s returned to the team, but has been suspended for the first three games, and who knows if he’ll stay on Saban’s good side when he’s reinstated. Outside of McClain, nothing is yet settled. Two true freshmen, Jerell Harris and Don’ta Hightower, have worked with the first team at times this fall, and it now appears that Hightower will start the opener at the weak inside position. McClain was pretty much the team’s best linebacker when he stepped on campus, bigger, faster, and more skilled than anyone else, and it’s hoped that Hightower will have a similar impact. Junior Brandon Fanney did some work with the first team early on, but is not secure in his job by any means. Junior Cory Reamer, a converted safety, seems likely to play somewhere, depending upon where the weakest spot is, though he’s more a cover man than tackler or playmaker. Little-used junior Eryk Anders and sophomore Chavis Williams are also in the mix.

The secondary, in contrast, appears set, at least its starters. Cornerback Kareem Jackson started every game as a freshman, and by the end of the season was clearly the team’s best cover man. Senior strong safety Rashad Johnson led the team in tackles and interceptions, and was first-team All-SEC. Javier Arenas, primarily a return man his first two seasons, won the starting job opposite Jackson in the spring, and hasn’t yet been pushed; he’s on the small side, but is obviously athletic and tackles well. Only junior FS Justin Woodall seems in any danger of losing his job before the season, but he too hasn’t yet been pushed. Juniors Marquis Johnson and Chris Rogers appear to be the top backups at corner, and junior Ali Sharrief at safety. As usual on this team, any number of true freshmen are likely to compete for playing time, most prominently corner Alonzo Lawrence and safety Mark Barron. Expect a lot of five- and six-DB sets, even at times when it doesn’t seem strictly warranted; last year, blitzing DBs were needed to supplement the pass rush, and the lack of good backups in the front seven meant that resting the starters basically required using d-backs. When Alabama goes into the nickel, either Arenas will slide over to the “star” slot corner position as the departed Simeon Castille did, with Johnson presumably playing outside, or Barron will enter to take the nickel spot.

Special Teams

Say what you will about Saban (got that out of your system? Good.) but he made a good call on placekicker Leigh Tiffin. Tiffin was widely lambasted for his choketastic performance in 2006 against Arkansas, but Saban gave him the regular job anyway, and he was terrific in 2007, hitting 25 of 34 fieldgoals and all his PATs, plus handling kickoffs. Punter P.J. Fitzgerald is not very good, but hasn’t been an active weakness, and seems secure in his job.

Arenas should continue as the primary punt returner and one of two kickoff returners. The other spot may go to any of several candidates, with Maze perhaps the frontrunner.

Outlook

This is a “bad schedule” year, with the Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU games all on the road. Together with a trip to Georgia, and a neutral-site game with Clemson, the schedule’s pretty rugged, and arguably would require upsets to finish better than 6-6 again. On the other hand, last year’s team was able to beat UT (handily) and led both LSU and Georgia late before running out of gas. Just as important will be avoiding the upset bug themselves and embarrassing losses like ULM last year, or Mississippi State the last two. The probation-related depth issues of previous years, largely responsible for the many, many blown leads of the last two seasons, aren’t quite solved, but Alabama at last has a full complement of scholarship players.

It seems likely that early in the season, the Tide will depend upon the offense to carry the load, with hopefully the defense catching up by midseason. Saban’s defense really requires more players than he had to work with last year; as the freshmen get up to speed, he should finally have that. This is still a building process, but I expect some progress. The team could be greatly improved and not see it show up in its record, but I think 8-4 and a bid to the Peach Bowl (nobody’s paying me to name it after a fast-food franchise) seems reasonable.

UPDATE 8/25: Depth chart announced, with Jones, Cody, and Hightower all starters. Jones will also team with Arenas on kickoffs. A minor surprise is McCall ahead of Walker at tight end, but that’s largely semantics: both will play, probably about the same number of snaps, and both will be on the field together maybe 30 percent of time. The transfer of Nick Fanuzzi makes it slightly more likely that Star Jackson will play.

2008 Vanderbilt Commodores

So, I predicted a bowl berth for the Commodores last season—a season in which they had 5 seniors starting on the offensive line and one of the best defenses in the country—but it didn’t happen. I really should have known better. I guess I’ll repeat what I’ve been able to say for the past 3 seasons now: No player on Vanderbilt’s roster was alive the last time the university’s football team appeared in a Bowl Game, the storied 1982 Hall of Fame Bowl against the storied Air Force Falcons. (Many tenured professors on Vanderbilt’s faculty had not yet come into existence the last—and only—time the Commodores won a bowl game, in 1955.)

That said, it—a bowl appearance and perhaps even a bowl victory—is going to happen soon, and it’s going to be directly attributable to Bobby Johnson, whom I’m convinced is absolutely the right coach for this school and team. Unfortunately for long-suffering Vanderbilt fans, it just isn’t going to happen this season.

Offense

Most teams’ successes start with—and last season’s Vanderbilt squad’s successes ended with—quarterback play, which should once again be the deciding factor in the Commodores’ season. RS senior Chris Nickson, who, after what seemed like a breakout sophomore campaign, even being named to the pre-season All-Conference Third Team by SEC coaches last year, battled injury (most prominently, a separated throwing shoulder suffered on the second play of the game against Alabama) and various forms of suck in a disappointing junior season, will almost certainly be the starter this year, although that’s yet to be announced by the coaches. Nickson is, theoretically, a dual-threat quarterback, capable of running and throwing, and accumulating yardage in both areas in bunches. Nickson’s primary back-up will be RS junior Mac Adams, who proved last year in filling in for Nickson at various points that he will neither hurt nor help a team win in the SEC. He’s completely unspectacular in every respect, but at least he’s not as likely to have a kill-the-team-all-by-himself game as Nickson is. If Nickson’s hurt or ineffective again this season, the offense will likely belong to Adams. Competing for third-string duties are RS sophomore Jared Funk, who has the best arm but worst football IQ of the group, and RS freshman Larry Smith, whom both coaches and fans hope will emerge to become the starting QB beginning in 2009.

At tailback, RS junior Jared Hawkins has emerged as the clear starter. Hawkins is shifty and has shown flashes of the ability to actually gain positive yardage on a regular basis, but he’s had some injury problems the past couple of seasons, so durability is an issue. Backing him up and likely getting most of the short-yardage and goal-line carries will be RS senior Jeff Jennings, a team leader but a guy who’s never regained the step or two he lost after a knee injury two years ago. Also getting carries will be RS sophomores Gaston Miller, a tiny, change-of-pace back who’s said to have the ability to make people miss in space, and Kennard Reeves, who’s bigger but is basically Just Some Guy. RS freshman Ryan Van Rensburg, a prized recruit who is said to be very Jacob Hester-esque, will also see some carries in short yardage and in single-back sets. If Vanderbilt used a Fullback, he’d fill that role, and if he didn’t have hands of stone, he’d play a lot at H-Back. So, there’s that. (RS freshman Jermaine Doster, younger brother of the late Kwane Doster, has been suspended for the season for getting into an altercation and busting out a police car window outside a club just a few yards from where his brother was shot and killed a few years ago. In at least one respect, Vanderbilt really does appear to be narrowing the gap between itself and the rest of the SEC.)

Even after losing Earl Bennett to the NFL and speedster Alex Washington to season-ending knee surgery, there’s a lot of talent at wide receiver—if anyone can get the ball to these guys, Vanderbilt might actually have the makings of an offense. The top two guys will be inspirational 6th-Year senior George Smith (who is expected to return from a stress fracture in his foot by the conference opener at home against South Carolina), a big, reliable target who always seems to be open, and RS senior Sean Walker, the team’s primary deep threat. Also logging a significant number of snaps will be RS junior Justin Wheeler and RS senior Andrew Diamonde (in his first and only year of eligibility for the Commodores after transferring from Clemson). True freshman John Cole, a real speedster ideal for the slot, and RS freshman Udom Umoh could also see time, depending on how they progress. It will also be interesting to follow the progress of RS freshman Jamie Graham, possibly the best athlete and most coveted piece of the 2007 signing class, who, after walking on and logging minutes as a reserve point guard for the Commodores’ basketball team last Spring, has been moved from defensive back to wide receiver and could also see a lot of time in the slot.

At tight end/H-back, the Commodores have at least four players who could see snaps. Vanderbilt lost its most reliable blocker for that role when Brad Allen, last year’s starter, decided to forego his final year of eligibility, having earned his degree last Spring, but his replacements are all considered more dangerous offensive weapons. Reliable RS junior Jake Bradford is the most experienced and was expected to be the starter, but thus far, it appears as though he’s been passed on the depth chart by a couple of second-year players, sophomore Austin Monahan and RS freshman Brandon Barden, both of whom are easily more athletic than Bradford but need a lot of work when it comes to blocking. RS sophomore Justin Green, widely considered to be the most talented of the group, has for some reason known only to the coaches, managed to slip to fourth on the depth chart. 6’7” guys with hands who can run don’t grow on trees, so it will be interesting to see if Green can earn back his expected playing time.

The offensive line should also be rather interesting in 2008, as not a single starter from last season returns. In more than one instance, that might not be a bad thing, as that 2007 all-senior unit, apart from All-American left tackle Chris Williams, was incredibly disappointing. This year’s line, though obviously less experienced and a bit smaller overall than the group they’re replacing, is much more athletic. The unit’s best player, RS junior Thomas Welch (a high school quarterback whom the coaches recruited to play tight end, only he kept growing without losing any athleticism) will play right tackle, because, according to the coaches, that’s where he’s most comfortable. The team’s best guard, RS junior Ryan Custer, will also play on the right side. This leads to the interesting (crazy?) scenario in which a team with four right-handed quarterbacks will nevertheless have its weakest side of the line on the left. I’d think most running plays will go right. Capable RS junior Bradley Vierling, who saw a lot of snaps at guard in place of ineffective senior Merritt Kirchoffer last season, will take over the center position this year. Filling in on the left side will be RS sophomore Riley Lauer (a bit undersized but, again, athletic) at tackle and RS sophomore Joey Bailey at guard. Also in the mix for playing time along the line will be RS junior Drew Gardner, RS junior Eric Hensley, and RS freshman Kyle Fischer, the last of whom has really impressed coaches and may well be the most talented lineman on the team after Welch.

Defense

The Commodores only return one starter from last year’s productive-if-unspectacular defensive line, and he’s not an interior lineman (yet). While there is talent—perhaps more per player along the line than in any other season since I began following Vanderbilt—a lot of it is inexperienced, and particularly on the interior, there just aren’t a lot of bodies. The lone returning starter, RS junior Steven Stone, is a good one. Perhaps the most underrated lineman in the conference, Stone is big and is equally capable of rushing the passer and stopping the run. On the other side of the ball, the “starter” will be RS junior Broderick Stewart, a speedster who remains unable keep enough weight on his frame to be an every-down end in the SEC. Stewart is an absolute terror when he’s able to pin his ears back and go for the quarterback, and he should record his share of sacks, but he won’t be in much in short yardage situations, which means that the reserve ends, RS sophomore Teriall Brannon and, particularly, sophomore Theron Kadri, will have to produce. Thought to be a project coming out of high school, Kadri was surprisingly productive as a true freshman last season, and after having put on a fair amount of weight, the coaches expect even more from him this year. On the interior, replacing 2007 seniors Theo Horrocks and Gabe Hall are RS junior Greg Billinger and RS sophomore Adam Smotherman. Billinger is big and is finally making good on the promise he showed in high school before being derailed for two seasons following a car accident. Smotherman is equally big and talented, but appears to have a degenerative knee condition which has kept him off the field far more than his abilities would have otherwise allowed. In a vacuum, there shouldn’t be much drop-off from last year’s starters to this year’s, assuming they stay healthy, but especially with Smotherman, that might be unrealistic to expect. Listed as the primary back-ups are a bunch of young guys: RS freshman T.J. Greenstone, and true freshmen Rob Lohr and Colt Nichter. (Bizarrely, Rob Ashabranner, another RS freshman who was to provide depth along the interior, was moved to the offensive line over the summer.) Because of the lack of depth, and especially if there are any significant injuries, ends Stone and Kadri may also see a good amount of time at tackle. Both are capable of holding their own at the position but more valuable along the edges.

The linebacking corps lost yet two more senior starters in Jonathan Goff and Marcus Buggs, both of whom are likely to be on NFL rosters this season. However, the talent at the linebacker position has never been stronger, and I don’t expect there to be much of a drop-off in production. Returning to start on the weak side is junior Patrick Benoist, a sure tackler who’s capable in coverage. (Battling him for playing time, once again, will be fellow RS junior Brandon Bryant, once he returns from a leg injury.) The real story will likely be the pair of second-year players at the other linebacker spots, though, RS freshman Chris Marve in the middle, and sophomore Jon Stokes on the strong side. Vanderbilt fans anxiously await the live-game debut of Marve, who at 6’0” (generously) is undersized but is generally praised by all coaches and other observers as a future star in the SEC. Stokes, only the second Rivals 4-star to ever sign with Vanderbilt, is big, fast, and smart, and he might eventually see time at defensive end, though probably not in 2008, barring some incredible rash of injuries along the line. In various back-up roles will be the previously mentioned Bryant, RS sophomore Nate Campbell (perhaps the best athlete on the team), RS junior Chris Johnson (a special-teams force), RS junior Brent Trice (a converted safety), and true Freshmen Tristan Strong and DeAndre Jones. In short, the talent Vanderbilt has had over the past decade at linebacker (NFL-ers like Shelton Quarles, Jamie Duncan, Jamie Winborn, Matt Stewart, Hunter Hillenmeyer, and the aforementioned Goff) does not appear to have dropped off in the least.

The secondary, however, which returns all four starters (five, if you include the nickel back) is unquestionably the strength of the team. The star of the unit is junior D.J. Moore, a pre-season All-American and a guy projected by many as a first-round pick in the NFL Draft this coming offseason. Moore is fast and agile, and he has fantastic ball skills—he’s easily the program’s best defensive back since Corey Chavous. (Moore will also see a lot of time on offense, as the coaches try to use him like a Champ Bailey, hopefully without killing him.) Opposite Moore is Myron Lewis, who led the conference in pass break-ups last season and, at 6’3”, is a defensive backs coach’s dream, physically. The team’s designated nickel back, as he has been for the past three seasons, is RS junior Darlron Spead, a playmaker with ball skills similar to those of Moore. At safety, the Commodores return underrated RS senior Reshard Langford, possibly the hardest hitter in the conference and the unquestioned leader of the defense, and RS junior Ryan Hamilton, a solid tackler who rarely finds himself out of position. Also logging minutes in the secondary will be RS seniors Josh Allen and Jared Fagan, RS junior Joel Caldwell (a former starter at cornerback as a freshman who was moved to safety after the emergence of Moore and Lewis last season), and true Freshmen Casey Hayward (easily the best athlete of the 2008 signing class, and someone whom the coaches will have difficulty keeping off the field) and Sean Richardson (who’s had perhaps the best Summer of anyone on the defense).

Special Teams

Returning at kicker is senior Bryant Hahnfeldt, a kid with a very strong leg who after a great freshman season has battled injury and then resultant confidence issues ever since. He’s reportedly had an outstanding Spring and Summer, but we won’t know until the real games start whether he’s back to his original reliable self. Hahnfeldt has cost the team more than one game over the past couple of season with misses, but the coaches appear to be optimistic that such performances are behind him.

Scheduled to handle the punting duties is junior Brett Upson, whom I had a very low opinion of before actually looking at the statistics. He’s not great, but he was in the middle third of punters in the conference last year, which should be good enough, and one would expect him to be in a similar range, if not better, in 2008. However, he’s battled some leg injuries this offseason, and it appears as though Hahnfeldt, who handled some of the punting duties as a freshman, may open the season on double-duty for Vanderbilt. What’s really hurt the Commodores in the past few seasons is the kick coverage unit, which was seemingly compounded even further last season by the bizarre rugby-style technique installed by the coaches, which looked poorly organized and ill-suited to Upson’s abilities. The kick coverage (including that on kick-offs), in some form or fashion, simply must improve for the team to have success. Frankly, I hear about improvement in this area every offseason, but until it actually shows up in the games, I’ll remain pessimistic about the punting game as a whole.

Alex Washington, referenced above, was scheduled to be the primary return man before he blew out his ACL, but with his forced absence, the coaches might be forced to use their best weapon, D.J. Moore, in yet another type of football situation. It’s risky to expose him to so many hits, but I think Washington’s injury might be a blessing in disguise, as Moore is simply electrifying with the ball in his hands. Also seeing time returning kicks will likely be Graham and Cole, both of whom would seem to be ideally suited for the role. Cole, in particular, has wowed coaches in workouts and practices at the position.

Outlook

On offense, as I alluded to above, it really all comes down to Nickson. Yes, it will be nice if the line gels and does what the coaches believe the unit is capable of doing, and it will help if Hawkins stays healthy and produces at the level of which he’s previously shown flashes, but if Nickson is short-hopping receivers in Clausen-esque fashion like he did for much of last season, the offense simply won’t score enough (or log enough possession time) to win games, no matter how great the defense is.

With any health luck along the interior defensive line, this could be a truly special defense. The talent is there all over the field, and if the tackles can hold up against the run, I would expect the Commodores to be one of the better scoring defenses in the country in 2008. Quite frankly, they’ll generate a pass rush if for no other reason than the linemen will have a lot of time to get to the quarterback because the receivers won’t be able to get open very quickly.

The special teams are a huge question mark. Moore, Cole, and Graham could really help in the return game, but if the kicking and coverage units don’t improve on their woeful performances of the last couple of seasons, this aspect will once again cost the Commodores a game or two over the course of the season.

Oh, and if D.J. Moore gets hurt, we’re absolutely screwed.

The non-conference schedule includes games at Miami (OH) and Wake Forest, and home games against Rice and Duke. In the SEC, we play South Carolina, Auburn, Florida, and Tennessee at home, while we leave Nashville for games in Starkville, Oxford, Athens, and Lexington.

Games in which VU should be a substantial underdog: Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, at Georgia.

Games in which VU will be an underdog with a shot: at Wake, South Carolina, at Mississippi State, at Ole Miss, at Kentucky.

Games which VU really has no business losing: at Miami, Rice, Duke.

I’d bet against us against Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Georgia, Wake Forest, and Mississippi State. I think we’re very capable of winning the other six—we actually have more talent than Ole Miss; Kentucky lost, like, all of its players from last year; and we dominated South Carolina, which has no quarterback, on the road last year without Nickson—but I’m sure we’ll blow it against at least one and probably two of them. The opening four-game stretch—at Miami; South Carolina; Rice; at Ole Miss—really is key; if we could manage a 3-1 record against those schools, we’d have a real shot at 6 wins.

Anyway, I’m looking for a 5-7 season, with 4-8 being more likely than 6-6. The talent gap is narrowing, and there are legitimate encouraging signs all across the roster, but I’m probably going to have trouble actually predicting a bowl berth again until we prove we can do it.

–Stu