The Nick Saban Era begins, but as all eras do it will be with the last guy’s players for the most part. Mike Shula did a fair job of recruiting, but depth is a major concern, particularly on the defensive side of the ball where at some positions no experienced players return.
Offense
Nine starters return on offense, together with most of the top reserves. John Parker Wilson is the quarterback, coming off a season in which he set school records for yards and touchdowns. He should be a better fit for the new offense than he was for the last, though nobody actually knows what that offense will be. He may run more, but needs to stay healthy as his backup is redshirt freshman Greg McElroy and the only other scholarship quarterback around is an incoming freshman. Wilson’s two top receivers, DJ Hall and Keith Brown, also return. Hall set the school single-season record for receiving yards last year and if healthy should set basically every career mark this year. His fellow senior Brown was actually ahead of Hall’s pace until injuries struck in midseason. Receiver is the deepest position on the team with Nikita Stover, Will Oakley, and Matt Caddell all returning and I expect to see a lot of three and four receiver sets. Three experienced tight ends return. Travis McCall is the best blocker and was the starter last season. Nick Walker is a physical freak and could be a major asset in the receiving game, as could 6-7 third-teamer Charles Hoke.
Running back Ken Darby (after a catastrophic year in which he seemingly lost the ability to play football at a high level and Shula nonetheless kept giving him the ball) and fullbacks Le’Ron McClain and Tim Castille are all gone, leaving the backfield in flux. Four halfbacks are in the mix, and it’s entirely unclear who will come out on top. Jimmy Johns was at the top of the depth chart entering spring but had academic issues leading to a brief suspension. Glen Coffee, who missed last season with a knee injury, probably has the best all-around skills but lacks a single outstanding capability like Johns’ power or Terry Grant’s speed. Grant, who took a medical redshirt after three games last year, should play some sort of role but seems too small to be an every-down back. Roy Upchurch has shown flashes but has had to have surgery on each foot in successive years. Saban at LSU tended to ride whoever had the hot hand and showed no sentiment whatsoever (Darby would not have been allowed to keep starting without performing as he did last season) and likely all four backs will see significant time. No experience whatsoever returns at fullback, where walkon Baron Huber is listed as first on the depth chart. The offense was kept basically under wraps all spring and it seems likely that the Tide’s base offense will be either three receivers or two tight ends.
The starting offensive line all return, but the line was the weak spot on the team and played a major part in Shula’s firing. Andre Smith starred as a freshman and has left tackle nailed down. Heading into practice, the only other sure thing was that Antoine Caldwell would play somewhere. It seems that Caldwell will stay at center with Justin Britt and Marlon Davis the guards. Right tackle is still in flux, as oft-maligned starter Chris Capps missed spring with shoulder injury and converted guard BJ Stabler missed time with a persistent knee problem. It seems likely that someone else — perhaps Drew Davis — will take over the position.
Defense
More is known about the defensive philosophy than the offensive right now, but less about the personnel. The team is probably smaller (and faster) than Saban’s desired style, as that was departed defensive coordinator Joe Kines’ preference, and there will be a period of transistion. Alabama will switch to a 3-4, both because it’s Saban’s preferred scheme and because the team returns virtually no experience at all at defensive tackle. In fact, the starting nose guard, Brian Motley, spent last year as a redshirt practicing at center. Backup Lorenzo Washington played briefly in blowouts last season. Senior leader Wallace Gilberry returns at one end; it’s hoped that the new scheme will free him up more after last season, where he was constantly double-teamed. Bobby Greenwood, who split time last season, will start at the other end, though he’s a shade undersized for a 3-4 lineman. Brandon Deaderick, who has more prototypical size and arguably a better name, should back up both end spots, and can also slide inside if the team goes to a four-man line.
There’s little experience back at outside linebacker as well. Keith Saunders, who shared time with Greenwood last season, will play a combo rush end/linebacker spot ala Jason Taylor (or, for us old guys, Derrick Thomas). Converted wide receiver Zeke Knight showed flashes as a rush end last season before injuries took him out, and is listed at the other OLB. Prince Hall, a freshman All-American last year, will start at one inside spot and call the signals. Senior Darren Mustin, a transfer from Middle Tennessee, looks to be the starter at the other spot. The listed backups (DeMarcus Waldrop and Marcel Stamps) are both remarkably undersized at about 200 pounds, and it seems likely that someone else will emerge here.
The bulk of the defense’s experience is in the secondary, which returns two starters and several other veterans. Cornerback Simeon Castille is the defense’s most likely candidate for postseason honors after an All-SEC junior season. He was shaky in coverage early on but came on late. He’s more of a playmaker than a pure cover corner, and a switch to more zone coverage (and working with DB specialist Saban, who called himself a “graduate assistant” for the defensive backs this spring) should help him. Lionel Mitchell and Eric Grey are still in competition at the other corner, but Grey’s persistent injuries argue that Mitchell will take over that job sooner or later, though both will play. Saban will play a lot of nickel, and young players like Marquis Johnson and Kareem Jackson could make an impact. Marcus Carter returns at strong safety, while Rashad Johnson, who split time with Carter last year, moves to the free spot. Justin Woodall is the most experienced backup.
Special Teams
Jamie Christiansen missed time early in the 2006 season with a groin injury that probably cost the team the Arkansas game when legacy Leigh Tiffin missed several makeable field goals and an extra point. Christiansen will be back full strength and should handle placekicking and kickoffs. PJ Fitzgerald was unspectacular but the least of the team’s problems last year as the punter, and hasn’t been pushed so far.
Javier Arenas was the primary return man last year, and was especially effective on punt returns. Kickoff returns were a problem last year, as both Grant and Upchurch spent time flanking Arenas before getting hurt. Saban will try to use his best athletes in return roles and expect some surprises.
Coverage was a problem in 2006, especially on kickoffs, though the team grew better as the season went on. In part, this was caused by the lack of depth, which forced a lot of very young players and walkons into coverage roles, but also reflected a lack of discipline. Both should be less of a concern in 2007.
Coaching
Despite the Jesus Christ Superstar greetings for Saban in Tuscaloosa, he isn’t going to work miracles. The main thing he should bring is renewed discipline, which seemed a concern (particularly on offense) during the Shula regime. The off-field problems of several players (including Hall, Johns, and last year’s defensive stalwart Juwan Simpson) were one concern, but just as damaging were the numerous boneheaded mistakes that put the team in holes that Wilson had to dig out of. Shula’s loyalty was also a problem; while loyalty is a fine thing, it’s not exactly loyal to the other players on the team to stick by someone who is clearly struggling (like Darby and Capps) or to the players as a whole to stick by a coach who is over his head (like offensive line coach Bob Connelly). Saban’s loyalty, certainly, can be questioned, but he’ll make the tough decisions that Shula would not. The Darby situation is instructive; Saban, in similar positions at LSU, didn’t hesitate to ditch LaBrandon Toefield or Dominick Davis if they were struggling and he had a better option.
Major Applewhite was brought in from Rice as offensive coordinator and quarterback coach. The Owls played a wide-open, spread offensive style last season on their way to their first bowl appearance in about half a century, but only elements of that are expected to play a part in Tuscaloosa. Veteran NFL assistant Joe Pendry will be the offensive line coach and is also thought to take part in the offensive planning. Kevin Steele, former top FSU assistant, is the defensive coordinator, though Saban is expected to be the primary defensive mastermind.
Outlook
This is a “good schedule” year, with three of the four top rivals (Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU) visiting Tuscaloosa. Traditionally, that means that if the team is good they have a good chance at ten wins and a good bowl, but if they’re bad that means they’ll have to win games on the road against the Mississippi schools to have a decent season. Georgia also visits Tuscaloosa, taking Florida’s place on the schedule, while the Tide visits Vandy. The key stretch should come early in the season. After a tuneup with Western Carolina, the Tide makes the Nashville trip, hosts the Razorbacks and Dawgs, then plays a “neutral site” game in Jacksonville with Florida State.
All of those games are winnable, but winning them all is a tall order. If they come out of that stretch 4-1, they’ll be in great shape. My guess is that they can handle Tennessee on the Third Saturday; that’s followed by an off week and then what should be a war with LSU Nov. 3. The season, as usual, concludes with Auburn, this time at Auburn.
Overall, my guess is that the Tide will win the games in which they’re favored and pick off at least one upset in the games they’ll be underdogs (Georgia, FSU, Tennessee, LSU, Auburn). I’m saying Tennessee. That would be 8-4, probably a third place finish in the West, and a mid-level bowl — say Atlanta, for the KFC/Church’s Peach Bowl Presented by Popeye’s.
They could be a lot better. The basic theory here is that Shula was as bad of an offensive coordinator as he’s thought to be, and Connelly even worse as a line coach, and that their seemingly competent replacements, together with an experienced offense, should win games until the defense gets settled. Remember, though Alabama lost seven games last year, they led in at least five of them and lost one game by one point in overtime and two others by a field goal, so just slight improvements could seemingly lead to ten or more wins. I can’t go that far, not for a first-year staff in the SEC, but it’s happened before.
UPDATE (9/31): Things change. Brian Motley has broken his ankle, leaving the team with only two defensive tackles. Lorenzo Washington will start, backed by true freshmen. Terry Grant has apparently won the primary running back job. Jimmy Johns seemingly will be used as a combo back similar to how Shula used Tim Castille, playing both tailback and fullback, and also some H-back.
Prince Hall and Keith Brown have been suspended for the opener. Brown was already on the verge of losing his job to the surging Mike McCoy, who will start in his place. I still expect to see a lot of three and four receiver sets. True freshman Rolando McClain will start for Hall, and may battle for the full-time job afterwards. Saban won’t say what Brown and Hall did.
Mike Johnson won the right tackle spot, with Chris “Turnstile” Capps moved to backup left tackle. Saban is going with Leigh Tiffin as his starting placekicker; Jamie Christiansen is hurt, but apparently this was already in the cards. I guess Saban hasn’t seen the tapes of the Arkansas game.
