2007 Vanderbilt Season Preview

If this isn’t the year Vanderbilt finally breaks its bowl drought, I may give up hoping that it will ever happen while the school remains in the SEC. (And I don’t think VU will be leaving the SEC anytime soon.)

 

This year’s team features 18 returning starters—9 on offense, 7 on defense, and both kickers—and, unlike previous iterations of Commodore Football, that’s actually a good thing. Coach Bobby Johnson and his staff, now entering Year 6 at the helm, have, in addition to bringing in a few more higher-profile recruits than did previous staffs, done a remarkable job of finding under-the-radar types who are capable of playing—and playing well—in the toughest division of the toughest conference in college football. In addition to an experienced roster and an increased talent level, Vanderbilt’s schedule this season is one that should prove favorable to a bowl run. The team plays 12 games this season, and 8 of them are at home. Further, what look to be the 4 toughest opponents it will face this season will be played on the road. While for an elite school, this makes for a “bad schedule year”—you want your toughest opponents coming to your place, because the goal is going undefeated, and you figure you can handle the weaker teams on the road—I think the opposite is true for Vanderbilt, who doesn’t stand a great chance of beating the toughest opponents anyway and should be able to maximize its home-field advantage, what little there is in Nashville, by playing the least-strong teams there.

 

Schedule (conference games in bold, away games designated with a “*“)

 

Richmond

Alabama

Ole Miss

(bye)

Eastern Michigan

Auburn*

Georgia

South Carolina*

Miami-OH

Florida*

Kentucky

Tennessee*

Wake Forest

Quarterbacks

 

Chris Nickson, a RS Junior who was recently voted onto the third team for pre-season All-SEC by the coaches, will lead the team in this, his second season as the starter. Last year, many may not realize that he finished 4th in the SEC in total offense per game (third among returning players), averaging 173.8 yards passing and 57.8 yards on the ground, while throwing 15 TDs and rushing for another 9. A dynamic athlete with a strong arm, Nickson showed flashes of brilliance as a Sophomore, but the coaches hope he will improve on his 2006 accuracy and decision making. Boasting an efficiency rating in the lower half of conference starters last year, the focus in offseason practices has been on increasing his 54.8% completion percentage and decreasing the number of turnovers he surrenders (13 INTs, ___ fumbles lost). Both will be important to the team’s success in 2007.

 

Talent-wise, QB depth is generally thought to be a position of real strength for the Commodores, though the performances of backups Mac Adams (another smart dual-threat passer, this one a RS Sophomore) and Richard Kovalcheck (a Senior and former highly-touted recruit who transferred from Arizona last offseason under the short-lived rule allowing players to do so without sitting out a year) have left a lot to be desired in practice, with neither player showing the sort of decision making that playing against SEC defenses requires. If Nickson is lost to injury for any significant time, this will be a real problem.

 

It smacks of cliché, but the fate of the VU season will probably be determined in large part by how well their QB plays. If the team is to make it to a bowl, Nickson must remain healthy and improve on his accuracy and decision making. The coaches seem to believe this will happen, and I must confess that I am of the same opinion—this kid has a chance to have a breakout season and be a special player in this conference.

 

Tailbacks

 

Another key to Vanderbilt’s season will be not having Chris Nickson lead the team in rushing again.

 

That will depend primarily on two players, Cassen Jackson-Garrison and Jeff Jennings. The former, a Senior with SEC size and speed but questionable vision and aggressiveness, was the starter for all of last year, rushing for only 614 yards and 5 scores, on 4 yards per carry. The latter, a RS Junior who blew out his knee at the end of the 2005 campaign and missed all of last season, is probably the more talented player—most fans would certainly like to see him get the majority of the carries in 2007—and seems to have fully recovered from the injury. Coach Johnson has said that the RB duties will be split between the two, but I have to think that the situation is a fluid one, and if one of the two emerges (almost certainly Jennings, if either) once the real games start, he’ll become the featured back.

 

The only other RB who, barring injury, is likely to see any significant action is RS Sophomore Jared Hawkins. Hawkins is smallish, but he showed flashes of game-breaking ability last season, when he averaged nearly 7 yards per carry in 43 attempts. Many fans have been clamoring for a year for Hawkins to get more touches, and the primary reason he doesn’t would appear to be his tendency to fumble, which, according to reports, has not improved a great deal in practice. Still, Hawkins should see the field and may have a say in how Vandy’s season goes.

 

Receivers

 

The main story here is, of course, Earl Bennett, one of the top receivers in the country and one of the players on nearly everyone’s All-America teams. Known (by fans and NFL scouts) for his great hands and sharp route-running, the Junior from Alabama, as most know by now, is on pace to break the SEC career marks for receptions and yardage, after combining for 161 catches and 2,022 yards (and 15 TDs) over his first two seasons. Thought by some to be a fluke after his first season in Nashville, Earl put his name on the national stage to stay in 2006 by having an even better season than in 2005, this time with defenses geared towards containing him without Jay Cutler throwing to him. As last season showed, Bennett’s production will be there, regardless of what the rest of the receiving corps is able to provide.

 

There is in 2007 a lot of optimism surrounding those other receivers. Though starter Marlon White graduated, the overall talent of the unit seems to have gotten better this year, with another year of experience. Vanderbilt’s primary offensive set will now include 3 WRs (last year, the H-Back set was the most common), so the unit will feature two new starters, George Smith (a RS Junior who has battled back from a spinal disease and, at 6′3″/200 lbs, should be a strong compliment for Bennett) and Sean Walker (a Junior and the fastest of the VU receivers, he has big-play ability and should be able to stretch the field, something Commodore pass-catchers have struggled with in the past). The second wave of receivers is also quite talented, if inconsistent, and inclludes Justin Wheeler, Bryant Anderson and Alex Washington, all of whom should see the field plenty in 2007.

 

Tight Ends/H-Backs

 

Brad Allen returns as the starter at TE for Vanderbilt. Allen was highly regarded coming out of high school but has yet to materialize into the weapon the coaches thought they were getting. He should be pushed hard by his backups, as Vanderbilt has a number of very big, athletic players at the position, led by Justin Green and Jake Bradford. As the strongest blocker of a crowded, talented group, however, Allen is likely to keep his starting job, at least for this year, even if he doesn’t progress as a pass-catcher.

 

VU enters 2007 without its H-Back, Steven Bright, from a season ago, and he will be difficult to replace, as evidenced by the change in offensive sets. Still, while Bright was probably the most versatile player on the team (a former QB for the Commodores, he had good speed and great hands, and he was a strong blocker), he had an injury-filled career in Nashville, so the staff got used to preparing gameplans that didn’t include him. Expect the H-Back, if used much at all, to come from that same group of TEs.\

 

Offensive Line

As a unit, this is probably the team’s greatest strength, and it’s certainly the main reason I and many other fans are optimistic about the 2007 season.

 

The starters are all Seniors–four of them, red-shirts–with a great deal of size (averaging 6′5″/307 lbs) and, perhaps more importantly, experience. The real stars on the O-Line are the two Tackles, RT Brian Stamper (in his sixth year at Vandy after being granted a medical red shirt by the NCAA–after his petition had initially been rejected by the SEC–for last season), and LT Chris Williams (perhaps the best individual lineman in the conference), both of whom stand a good chance to play on Sundays next year. Rounding out the line are Center Hamilton Holliday (the only true Senior of the bunch) and Guards Josh Eames and Merritt Kirchoffer, though Kirchoffer is being pushed by RS Sophomore Brad Vierling for playing time.

 

As for depth, it’s also very strong and relatively experienced. Guys like Vierling, Thomas Welch (T), and Ryan Custer (G) should also see a fair amount of playing time–they saw it last year because of a rash of injuries–though, if healthy, the 5 Senior starters will take the vast majority of snaps.

 

All in all, this group of linemen should consistently at least break even, if not win, the battle against defensive fronts around the league, and in this conference, that’s really saying something. Their play will be crucial if there is to be any improvement in the running game–though, admittedly, the problem in that area last year was hardly the fault of this unit–and should provide Chris Nickson with the time he needs to make better decisions and more accurate throws. Vanderbilt may actually be able to wear down opposing defenses, something that hasn’t been the case very often in recent seasons in Nashville.

 

Defensive Line

 

The starters on the D-Line are very capable, but the real issue with this unit is depth, particularly up the middle.

 

At one End position, Curtis Gatewood, a RS Senior, had a breakout campaign in 2006 (49 tackles, 8 TFL, 7 sacks) and looks to build on that in 2007. One of the hardest workers on defense, Gatewood can rush the passer and stop the run. As evidence of his disruptive presence, he finished last season with 4 forced fumbles, good for third in the conference. At the other End position, manned by solid-but-unspectacular Chris Booker a season ago, 2 RS Sophomores, Steven Stone and Broderick Stewart, will be used to try to approximate the contributions of Gatewood on the other edge. Stone will be listed as the starter and he is the better run stopper of the two. Stewart, a speedster who showed flashes of real ability last year, is much smaller in size and, at least for the time being–until he can prove that he won’t be consistently bowled over or otherwise made irrelevant on run defense–will serve as the pass-rush specialist.

 

True Freshman Theron Kadri, a raw athlete with size and a big-time motor, and RS Freshman Teriall Brannon, another big-but-unrefined athlete, will provide depth. The coaches would obviously prefer not to have to rely on these younger players, and barring injury, they shouldn’t have to much, given Gatewood’s ability to play every down.

 

As for the interior line, depth is a real concern even with a completely healthy unit. The starters, Senior Theo Horrocks and RS Senior Gabe Hall, should be fine–they’re both big, relatively athletic guys–at least as far as stopping the run is concerned, though they aren’t expected to generate much pressure on the opposing QB. Horrocks, in particular, is a very good player (like Gatewood, he has a nose for the ball, having forced 3 fumbles in 2006) and one of the more vocal team leaders.

 

Behind those two, though, it gets dicy. Greg Billinger, a RS Freshman, is the primary backup. A UGA commitment before deciding to renege and sign with the Commodores a couple years ago, Billinger is certainly a talent, but the concern with him is his inexperience. Adam Smotherman, another big and talented RS Freshman, was to be the fourth member of the tackle rotation, but in addition to his obvious inexperience, he’s suffered through a lingering knee injury all offseason and will not be at full strength to start the season. After him, the DTs aren’t really even worth mentioning by name, at least not in 2007.

 

Linebackers

 

This is the real strength of the Commodore defense (as usual), and is led by MLB Jon Goff, a RS Senior and the player, along with WR Earl Bennett and LT Chris Williams, receiving the most attention from NFL scouts. Coming off a season in which he recorded 93 tackles, good for 7th in the conference and 2nd among returning players, Jon should–and, frankly, will have to–go a long way toward solving the run-stopping problem likely to be created by the lack of depth on the interior line.

 

On the strong side, RS Senior Marcus Buggs returns and is as reliable as they come. Though undersized (listed at 5′11″/228), the converted safety has the speed to hold his own in coverage, and his production is very good (50 tackles, 10.5 TFL in 2006)–the coaches don’t have to worry about the Sam position. On the weak side, Brandon Bryant–a RS Sophomore who received perhaps more praise from coaches during offseason workouts and practices than any other player–will fill in for Kevin Joyce, who graduated after last season. A sure tackler with SEC speed, Bryant may well be better than Joyce, who had 59 tackles, was in 2006.

 

The Commodores also boast quality depth at LB, as RS Sophomore Patrick Benoist (who was in a fierce battle with Bryant for the Will starting job prior to injuring his ankle) and RS Freshman Nate Campbell should see a lot of action, in addition to True Freshman Jon Stokes, the most highly regarded nationally of VU’s incoming Freshmen.

 

Defensive Backs

 

Vanderbilt returns all 4 starters in its secondary from a year ago, and the coaches are hoping that extra year of experience will lead to on-the-field improvement, particularly with the Cornerbacks.

 

Last year, Sophomores DJ Moore and Marlon Lewis showed flashes of ability, as well as their inexperience–they were true Freshmen in 2006, obviously–in giving up far too many big passing plays. Both are said to have had exceptional camps, though, and should hopefully show that improvement on the field. Moore, in particular, shows the kind of athletic ability needed to be a shut-down corner in the SEC and which, quite honestly, Vanderbilt has not featured in a decade. With the added experience, too, the coaches are expected to allow the Moore and Lewis to play closer to the line of scrimmage, thereby limiting the number of short, easy passes opposing offenses were able to complete with some frequency in 2006, when the corners frequently gave 8-yard cushions before the snap.

 

Leading the reserve CBs–and likely to see a lot of time on the field in the Nickel formation, which the Commodores frequently employ–is RS Sophomore Darlron Spead, who has the ball skills needed to create turnovers. Other reserve CBs include two upperclassmen, RS Juniors Josh Allen and Jared Fagan, who are listed on the second string but are expected by most fans to be bumped down in the pecking order as the year goes on by some of the more talented younger players. In particular, a name to watch out for is Jamie Graham, a true Freshman and local product who is a dynamic athlete–he may well play for Kevin Stallings’ basketball team, too–and who, the coaches feel, is worthy of seeing as much playing time as possible.

 

Unlike the CBs, the Commodore Safeties have little to prove. SS Reshard Langford, a RS Junior, is among the hardest hitters in the league and does a good job protecting the middle of the field in addition to helping out with the run. Though he isn’t particularly fast and does not have sure hands–he dropped more than one interception last season–his role on the team does not require either. In my opinion, Langford is probably the most underappreciated player on Vanderbilt’s roster, by outsiders. He is very much like UGA’s Greg Blue, who graduated a couple years ago and whom I also saw play a lot of football. I’ll be shocked if Reshard doesn’t play in the NFL. At FS, RS Sophomore Ryan Hamilton will enter his second year as a starter. What Langford lacks in ball skills and speed, Hamilton makes up for; in addition, he is a sure tackler, though, at 6′2″/210, he could still stand to add some weight to his lanky frame.

 

Backing up the safeties will be Sophomore Brent Trice and RS Sophomore Joel Caldwell, who played as a CB last year before being moved. Trice is a playmaker, one of the best athletes on the roster–another guy the coaches are looking to find a way to get on the field–and Caldwell has reportedly done quite well in the transition to Safety.

 

Special Teams

 

This was the real bugaboo of the 2006 Vanderbilt Commodores–lost to Arkansas by 2 after missing a last-second FG; lost to Ole Miss by 7, despite outgaining them 400-179, after two missed FGs, a fumbled punt and a sack taken by the punter; lost to Florida by 6 after having 2 punts blocked. Add to that Vanderbilt’s abysmal kick coverage, ranking ___ in the nation last season, and it’s not hard to see what area of this football team needs the most improvement over last season.

 

Placekicker Bryant Hahnfeldt looks to rebound from a subpar Sophomore season to the form he showed as a freshman in 2005. Last season, the kicker, recovering from a knee injury sustained at the end of 2005, never found a rhythm and connected on only 8 of 17 FG attempts. Reports indicate, however, that Hahnfeldt has been very strong this offseason, kicking with much greater accuracy and connecting on 50+-yard attempts with regularity. Assuming he can get over any residual mental effects from the 2006 season, there’s no reason that Hahnfeldt shouldn’t be a weapon for the Commodores in 2007.

 

The punting situation must also be shored up. Last season, Freshman Brett Upson was only 10th in the league in punting average–37.4–but that wasn’t even the main problem with the unit, which was consistently exposed for the poor blocking that resulted in several game-changing blocked punts. This year, the coaches have opted to keep several starters in on the special teams units, so, while the injury risk for these guys increases, the protection for the kickers is expected to be greatly improved.

 

When it comes to returning kicks, the main issue focused on this offseason has been hanging on to the football, something Vanderbilt’s returners, particularly those returning punts, have been seemingly unable to do over the past couple of seasons. Reserve WR Alex Washington, who, despite having speed and quickness, struggled mightily when given the chance last season, is listed as the primary kick returner to start the season, much to the surprise of most onlookers. Earl Bennett may also field punts–his hands are sure, and he’s proven to be quite elusive–but the staff is leery of exposing their star to injury. The name to watch for here, as in the secondary, is Freshman Jamie Graham. He returned kicks and punts in high school and is a good bet to be doing the same for Vanderbilt at some point during the season.

 

Kick coverage was also a problem for the Commodores in 2006, as opponents too frequently began drives with good field position. That could be an even greater problem this season, with the new NCAA rule moving the ball 5 yards back on kickoffs. Still, with Hahnfeldt’s leg–one of the stronger in the conference when healthy–back at full strength, most coaches believe the coverage should improve this season. Punt coverage may still be an adventure. On kickoffs, Patrick Benoist, the reserve LB set to miss a game or two with an injured ankle, is the main gunner, whereas on punts, Freshman reserve LB Jon Stokes, who will serve as the team’s long snapper, is said to be very strong.

 

2007 Outlook

As mentioned, this could–no, should–be a special year for Vanderbilt’s football team, which is poised to break its 24-year bowl drought. (No player on the team was alive the last time the University played football past November.)

 

The roster is deep and experienced, and the schedule sets up favorably for getting to the 6-win mark. In no particular order, here is a summary of the major issues coming into the season–that is, those questionable areas of the team on which the success of this season may well hinge:

• Nickson’s continued progression and health

• A more consistent ground game from those not named ‘Chris Nickson’

• Health on the D-Line

• Cut-down in number of big plays given up by the CBs

• Improvement in all aspects of the kicking game–kicking, kick coverage, blocking, and returning

• Turnover margin (not directly referenced anywhere above, but the team was -2 in 2006, and that has to improve–Nickson needs to be more careful with the football, our DBs need to catch more of the balls they get their hands on, and our kick returners have to keep their eyes on the freaking ball)

All of these are important, but I think Nickson’s health and improved special teams are the two most critical to a good season for the Commodores. And I think the Alabama game, in Week 2, will be the biggest game of the season. If we win that game, I’m very confident we’ll go bowling; if we don’t, I’m very confident we won’t. That game, in addition to providing one of the better opportunities to pick up a win, will demonstrate whether we’re ready to win.

 

Now, as for my predictions:

 

I see 4 games that we have absolutely no business losing–Richmond, Eastern Michigan, Miami-OH, and Ole Miss. We are demonstrably better than each of these teams (though obviously less so in the case of Ole Miss), and even the Vandy Alum in me won’t let me pick against the Commodores in any of these games. That’s 4 wins.

 

I see 2 games that we have no realistic shot at winning–Auburn and Florida. While I could make a case that upsets are possible in both games (Auburn–it’s in the middle of a brutal stretch for them, and we could get their let-down effort; Florida–we’ve played the Gators really close the past couple of years and those were much more experienced Florida teams), predicting wins in either strikes me as insane. That’s 2 losses.

 

Now, the other six games, the swing games. I don’t think there’s any way Vandy wins all 6 of these, but I think we’ll win some (and could win any); I rank them here in order of increasing likelihood of victory, with rationales:

 

South Carolina–We weren’t able to beat these guys under Spurrier before the top-flight recruits started pouring into Columbia, so I don’t see us beating them in their supposed breakout season. However, they’ve had a good bit of offseason turmoil, Blake Mitchell is incredibly shaky, and prognosticators are often wrong. But I just don’t see us winning this one–they seem to have our number. Predicted loss.

 

Tennessee–Even if there’s very little left for the Commodores to play for at the end of the season, the players will be more up for this game than any other. And UT has a lot of questions coming into this season (Who plays WR? Who plays DT? Who stays out of prison?). With that said, I can’t see winning consecutive games in Knoxville. We lose.

 

Georgia–This one’s pretty tough, because I am not buying UGA this year. Their weaknesses–inexperienced O-Line and thin secondary–would seem to play into Vandy’s hands, since they probably won’t be able to expose the Commodore D-Line, and Nickson will presumably be able to have success in the air. If we hadn’t beaten them last year (as I predicted would happen, FWIW), I would definitely pick us to do so this year. It’s just a strong matchup for us, at least on paper. But we did beat them last year, and they’re our homecoming opponent this year–I think they come to Nashville with revenge on their minds and, though it’s close, I think they probably leave with a win.

 

Alabama–Another tough one, though I’ve made my feelings on what the outcome will be well known. While Alabama has more highly-recruited players, a lot of it, especially on defense, is very inexperienced. Combine the general inexperience on D with the fact that Saban is converting to the 3-4 scheme–and we catch them in Week 2–and I think that bodes very well for VU. Also, we return more players and we barely lost in Tuscaloosa a year ago. While actually beating Bama has proved to be much easier said than done for Vandy in the past, and the Saban Factor is hard to ignore, I think we get ‘em this year. Win.

 

Wake Forest–Wake, defending its ACC championship, is obviously a very good team, but I think we have better players. I honestly don’t know a lot about the Demon Deacons, but I think we should be able to beat them in Nashville, even considering their great 2006 season. Frankly, I’m probably underrating this team, but I just am not able to imagine a world where Wake Forest is a tougher opponent than Alabama or Georgia. Not much analysis here, obviously, just a gut feeling–win.

 

Kentucky–Yes, they won 8 games last year, and they have a potent offense, featuring one of the best QBs in the country. But that defense is horrible . Truly awful. We can score with them, and I like our defense’s chances of slowing their offense down a lot better than I like their defense’s chances of slowing Vandy’s down. Also, I seriously doubt they’ll be able to duplicate that +15 turnover margin they produced a year ago, which was a big reason for the successful season. We will win.

 

So, it looks like I’m predicting a 7-5 (bowl-eligible!) season, which feels about right. I think 6-6 (still bowl-eligible!!!) is probably equally likely, and there’s always the Vandy Factor, which brings all those sub-.500 records into play, too. Though legitimately possible, I believe, I dare not think about predicting anything north of 7 wins.

 

Whatever happens, it promises to be an emotional year for the Vanderbilt faithful.