The Crimson Tide surprised everyone last year by opening the season 12-0, moving from being unranked at the start of the season to several weeks at #1, before losing a heartbreaker to Florida in the SEC Championship Game and sleepwalking through a Sugar Bowl loss to Utah. Still, they are ahead of schedule in returning to national prominence, and only now is the bulk of the talent from Nick Saban’s consecutive top recruiting classes really coming on line.
Offense
Alabama loses its starting quarterback, who played almost every down for the last three seasons, and its leading rusher. However, there’s fairly little concern about replacing those losses, or the losses of the two top tight ends, including the team’s second-leading receiver. The talent is on hand to fill those holes. Of more concern is the loss of three offensive linemen, two four-year and one three-year starter, including two All-Americans, one an Outland Trophy winning first-round NFL draft pick.
John Parker Wilson holds essentially all of the Alabama career and single-season passing records. It never really got him a whole lot of respect, even from Alabama fans. Wilson’s so little regarded, in fact, that many think that his backup, junior Greg McElroy, will step in and be at least as good. McElroy played fairly well in an extremely limited role last year, and has shined in spring practice and some outside camps, but he’s taken, by my reckoning, one snap in a truly contested game in his career; I believe he handed off. It remains to be seen if he’s up to playing Wilson’s “game manager” role, much less actually make plays. If he can’t, there will be trouble, as the top backup is a redshirt sophomore walk-on, Thomas Darrah, who played very briefly in 2008; he has a strong arm but is an unknown quantity when it comes to actually playing. Behind him are redshirt freshman Star Jackson (whom some rumors have maybe changing positions), true freshman AJ McCarron, and sophomore legacy/scout team fodder Morgan Ogilvie. Jackson pretty much proved in spring that he’s not ready yet, though he may be used in limited “Wildcat” type roles, and McCarron probably won’t be physically ready for a couple of years, though he apparently has been impressive in camp. If anything happens to McElroy — and considering the hits he took, it’s a wonder nothing ever happened to Wilson — the Tide will be in trouble.
There is practically no concern about the early departure for the NFL of leading rusher Glen Coffee, who last year only rushed for as many yards as any Alabama runner not named “Bobby Humphrey”, 1,383 (tying Shaun Alexander for second on the Alabama list). The biggest reason why not is that top backup Mark Ingram rushed for 783 yards last season as a true freshman, averaging 5.1 yards a carry, and is expected to get stronger in his first full year in college. He’s joined by senior Roy Upchurch, who when he’s not injures is a force, averaging six yards a rush last year and playing an all-purpose role as both a lead blocker in short yardage situations and a pass-catching/draw-running third-down back out of the shotgun. Both are expected to be pushed by the prize of the recruiting class, Trent Richardson, ranked by some recruiting services as the top running back in the country. Richardson promises a combination of speed and size rarely seen in Tuscaloosa and should contribute immediately, though you can never tell with freshmen. Another freshman, Eddie Lacy, was considered academically questionable coming in, but he qualified and has been as impressive as Richardson in fall camp. Terry Grant, the leading rusher in 2007, played sparingly in 2008 and never seemed to get the hang of the offense. It remains to be seen if the coaching staff can find a role for him, as he would make a lot of sense as a change-of-pace back. Depth took a hit with the transfer of a couple of reserves who decided that between Ingram and Richardson they would remain reserves, but there should be enough left to have a deeper rotation than in recent seasons.
The Alabama receiving game last season was essentially Julio Jones, who as a true freshman had 58 receptions (departed tight end Nick Walker, with 32, was the only other player with more than 16) and 940 yards (fourth in school history, and almost three times as much as Walker’s second-place 324). Jones was everything he was supposed to be as the prize recruit of the 2008 class, providing both speed and physical pass-catching to earn all-conference honors. Behind him, though, it’s not even who the other starter, or starters, will be — it’s not even clear if Alabama will go with three receivers, or return to last year’s primary two-tight-end look.
As it stands, Mike McCoy is listed as a returning starter at receiver but plays almost a tight end role, prized more for his downfield blocking than his pass-catching skills. He’s the second-leading returning receiver with 16, but in his two years as a starter has shown little ability to make plays, averaging less than ten yards a reception. Hope for a big-play receiver to take the pressure off of Jones largely rests on the shoulders of Marquis Maze, who is undersized but is the fastest player on the team. Darius Hanks, who was a star in practice in the 2008 offseason, fell through the cracks for most of the season before coming on late. Beyond these four are Earl Alexander, a converted quarterback who has shown talent but also a tendency to get injured, and several freshmen. The assumption is that someone will emerge opposite Jones.
At tight end, the top man is senior Colin Peek, who was allegedly the best tight end on the team last year but was ineligible to play while sitting out a transfer year from Georgia Tech. Peek is big and can catch; in the previous seasons, Alabama really didn’t have a blocking/catching combination at the tight end position. Peek is going to play through a fractured foot; if he can stay in the lineup, he is very likely to finish second on the team in receptions.
Alabama’s base set last year was two tight ends, and they’ll use two or three a lot of the time no matter what, but who other than Peek will be involved isn’t clear. Sophomore Brad Smelley started last year as a redshirt but finished as a member of the playing rotation, and caught some passes from McElroy. He’s bulked up from last year and hopes to be more of an every-down player. Junior Preston Dial started one game last year, but may have been passed in the rotation. Baron Huber, the previous “starting” fullback who hardly ever played, is now listed as a tight end and is likely to be used when a lead blocker is needed. There are also two converted defensive ends, Michael Williams and Undra Billingsley, who could play the “extra offensive lineman” role.
The offensive line loses three starters, two of whom were All-Americans, one of them an Outland Trophy winner and top-ten NFL first round draft pick. The latter, Andre Smith, was greatly missed in the games he was unable to play – against Tulane with an injury and against Utah in the Sugar Bowl due to suspension. The former, Antoine Caldwell, was merely an all-conference center and four-year starter and a team leader. Throw in four-year starting guard Marlon Davis, and there are a lot of holes to fill, though Alabama returns all-conference left guard Mike Johnson and starting right tackle Drew Davis, both seniors.
At least one first-year player is going to start, possibly two. James Carpenter, a JUCO transfer, was in classes in the spring and started at left tackle in the spring game, and seems to have nailed down the position; if anything, he’s more secure than Davis. And mammoth (6-7, 350) true freshman tackle DJ Fluker, another recruiting prize, seems likely to play, possibly backing up both left tackle positions. Fluker is an incredible talent, but has only played offensive line for one year, having started out on defense in high school.
Center appears to be secured by William Vlachos, a junior who has backed up both there and at guard, but who at six feet even is considered too short for the latter position. The one position that hasn’t been settled yet is right guard. Early in camp, the leader seemed to be Alfred McCullough, a converted defensive tackle, but then sophomore Barrett Jones seemingly took over. And if Fluker continues to impress, Davis, who is stronger as a run blocker anyway, could move inside. Alabama offensive line coach Joe Pendry likes to keep his best five linemen on the field, which has probably helped the team as long as the top five remained together, but when players were lost, as Smith last year and as Caldwell and Davis were two years ago in the textbook fiasco, continuity often suffered as the survivors moved around. The top backups, other than Fluker, appear to be Brian Motley (who has played both center and nose tackle in his career but now seems to be a guard), true freshman Chase Warmack, and last year’s top backup, junior David Ross, who was beaten out by Vlachos at center.
Defense
The defense is expected to carry the load early on, both because it has more returning players and because it was the stronger unit last year. Only two players on the 2008 defensive depth chart ran out of eligibility, though several others have transferred out or gone on medical scholarship. Those two losses, however, were the team leader in sacks and the team leader, period, and replacing them, especially the latter, is key. The Tide also needs to strengthen the pass rush, which has been by far the weakest part of the defense under Saban.
Up front, it starts with All-American senior nose tackle Terrance Cody. Cody, who chose to forego the NFL draft though he was a likely first-round pick, has “slimmed” down to about 340 pounds – at his peak, he was over 400 — but “Mount Cody” is still going to have the size advantage on pretty much everyone, and is expected to continue to occupy two blockers on most run plays, and hopes to play more on passing downs this year. Junior Josh Chapman is his backup and usually came in on those plays last year; the strongest man on the team, Chapman would probably be a starter anywhere else in the country. (Of course, most teams use two tackles.) True freshman Darrington Sentimore was thought to be a defensive end coming in, but has been working at tackle and has been impressive there.
Despite the graduation of top pass-rusher Bobby Greenwood, there was relatively little doubt about the defensive ends coming in. Senior Brandon Deaderick, second on the team to Greenwood with four sacks, will flip from the combination DT/DE spot to Greenwood’s vacated pure end position, while top backup Lorenzo Washington, the 2007 starter at nose tackle, takes Deaderick’s place. The Alabama line was undersized for the 3-4 two years ago, but now possesses NFL type bulk, averaging well over 300 pounds, thanks to Cody. Top reserves are sophomore Marcel Dareus and junior Luther Davis, while true freshman Kerry Murphy – who has been trying to qualify at Alabama seemingly since Gene Stallings was the coach and has finally succeeded – is likely to play somewhere.
All four starting linebackers were expected to return, but after apparently losing his starting job at “Jack” (a combo DE/LB) Brandon Fanney left the team, while top inside reserve Prince Hall finally transferred after winning the Joe Namath Most Suspended Award three springs running. There is still plenty of talent available. In the middle linebacker spot, junior Rolando McClain is a preseason All-American who has started at this “defensive quarterback” position basically since he stepped on campus, and led the team last year with 95 tackles and 12 tackles for loss.
The other two returning starting linebackers will start somewhere, though where isn’t necessarily clear. At the weak (inside) position sophomore Dont’a Hightower was fourth on the team in tackles as a freshman, but with his size and athleticism has led the coaching staff to experiment with him at the Jack position. At the strong (outside) position, senior Cory Reamer is considered a bit willowy (6-4, 218) but is evidently held in high regard. If Hightower moves outside, he may more inside. Eryk Anders was used as a situational pass-rusher last year but has been working as the starter at Jack more often than not; right now, the default would seem to be the three returnees at their present positions and Anders replacing Fanney, with Hightower moving outside in clear passing situations.
The backups are universally sophomores and freshmen, usually with little experience outside special teams. Jerrell Harris, Chris Jordan, and Courtney Upshaw are the “veterans” of the group as true sophomores and all are talented, but being pushed by true freshmen Nico Johnson and Tana Patrick. This should be the first year since 2005 that at least one freshman hasn’t started the opener at linebacker for Alabama, but there’s every chance that at least one will be starting by the end of the season.
The defensive backfield returns three starters, but loses its leader, two-year starting safety Rashad Johnson, the team leader in interceptions and second in tackles. Johnson also directed the defensive backfield, sharing play-calling roles with McClain. However, both cornerbacks return. Javier Arenas spent most of his first two years at Alabama as a pure kick returner, but given the chance to try playing defense excelled, winning the starting cornerback position and starring, playing well enough that he’s a preseason award candidate and considered a possible first-round draft pick. On the other side, junior Kareem Jackson has started every game since he came to Alabama and suffered only on comparison to Arenas. Arenas usually moves inside to the “star” nickel position when extra defensive backs are employed. Last year, his backup, and the corner in these situations, was Marquis Johnson, now a senior, who was frequently burned. True freshman Dre Kirkpatrick is challenging Johnson, and fans, at least, hope he succeeds. Chris Rogers, like Johnson a senior, and BJ Scott, a converted wideout, are also in the mix.
At safety, Justin Woodall surprised many by stepping right into the position opposite Rashad Johnson, and played very well, intercepting four passes (second on the team) and recording 44 tackles (seventh). Heading into his senior season, he’s expected to take on some of Johnson’s leadership role. His playing role will be assumed by sophomore Robby Green, who played mostly special teams last season and who at 6-0, 180 is much slighter than your ordinary safety. Senior Ali Sharrief is the top backup, and will move around; Alabama may play three safeties much of the time in nickel and dime packages, with Sharrief moving up. Mark Barron, a prized recruit last year who played a good bit both on defense and special teams, is also in the mix, and some still expect him to eventually supplant Green.
Special Teams
Many Alabama fans were shocked to see placekicker Leigh Tiffin as a preseason All-SEC pick, because he isn’t generally considered that reliable. But there wasn’t really a returning kicker who stood out as better, and they have to pick someone there. Tiffin has worked on getting stronger to aid in kickoffs and longer fieldgoals, but his biggest problem has been consistency. In some games, he looks great, but in others he’s been a problem, especially against Arkansas two years ago, when his poor kicking cost the Tide the game, and against LSU last year, when potential game winner at the end of regulation was blocked and Alabama had to win in overtime. There’s no experience behind him and it’s his job to lose.
Punter PJ Fitzgerald is pretty faceless, but has improved in each of his years as the punter to the degree that he certainly isn’t a liability. He’s not the type of guy who booms kicks, but has been reliable and is pretty good at tactical kicking, getting the ball inside the ten or pinning returners against the sidelines. He also serves as the holder on placekicks.
Arenas returns for his fourth year as the primary return man after leading the conference in punt return yards and touchdowns last year. It’s not clear who will join him on kickoffs. Last year, it was often McCoy, for blocking purposes. This year, it could be any of the top four wide receivers. Certainly there’s an attraction to having Jones deep alongside Arenas, which really leaves the opposition with a dilemma on who to kick to.
Schedule
Alabama opens for the second year in a row with a neutral-site game in Atlanta against an ACC opponent, this year Virginia Tech. That will be a test right off; the rest of the nonconference schedule is minor-conference pushovers none of whom is supposed to be a challenge, but the Tide always seems to have one game where they play down to that level.
This is a “good schedule” year, with Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU traveling to Tuscaloosa, but the apparent rise of Ole Miss and decline of Arkansas and Tennessee changes that somewhat. As it stands, there are three top ten teams on the schedule, and Alabama plays one on the road (Mississippi), one at home (LSU) and one at a neutral site (VPI). Georgia cycles off the schedule, replaced by South Carolina, who come to Tuscaloosa in a potential trap game between the Rebels and Volunteers. Bama travels to Auburn to end the season; it’s impossible for me to predict what the Tigers will look like by then. Right now, the only game they’d maybe be projected to lose is against Ole Miss, but it remains to be seen how much the Rebels are for real and how much is hype.
UPDATE
Aug. 31: Depth Chart! Barrett Jones is the starting right guard, Mark Barron beat out Robby Green at safety after all. The offense is listed as two tight ends, with Brad Smelley the H-Back, though he’s a completely different type of player than last year’s H-Back.
