Its a weird year in Oxford. A lot of good players return from what was a very solid defense last year. They were 4th in total and scoring defense in the SEC. But on the flip side they lost a lot of the offense including the first 1,000 yard receiver in school history, Shay Hodge, the first 1,000 rusher and 500 yard receiver in SEC history, Dexter McCluster, all three interior lineman, and a guy who had 20 touchdown passes, Jevan Snead (and also had 20 interceptions). The fanbase is cautiously optimistic we won’t be terrible, but cautious is the key word as we’ve sold about 5,000 fewer season tickets this year.
OFFENSE
At quarterback its one of three options and I somewhat expect all three to play in varied amounts. The man that everybody’s watching to see if he’ll start (I’ll do the joke for you “or steal something”) and if he’ll be effective in the SEC is Oregon transfer Jeremiah Masoli. He’s touted as a former Heisman candidate but I don’t think he was a serious candidate. The SEC’s also a much stronger league with much tougher defenses than the PAC 10. Masoli’s even acknowledged the big upgrade on the defensive side in interviews. Still he’s getting good reviews from everyone that’s seen practice for his poise in the face of a blitz, ball security, and ability to make something happen when the play breaks down. He’s a very effective runner and the early word is he’s be running a similar offense to the one Houston Nutt used for Matt Jones while at Arkansas. Still he has his limitations so there will be at least a two quarterback system with sophomore Nathan Stanley quarterbacking the pro-style offense. And that’s if the NCAA approves Masoli’s waiver. [Added: they didn't, then they did. -- MT] Stanley’s strength is throwing deep ball and he’s got good touch on the ball. Will hold on to the ball too long and take a sack at times. Oddly he’s the youngest and least experienced of the quarterbacks but the only one to go through spring training or take a snap for the Rebels last year. Nutt has said that if opening day was today Stanley would be the starter. Finally there is Juco All American Randall Mackey who another great runner. He’s an accurate passer if he throws on the run but does not run the offense well if he stays in the pocket. His lack of height is very detrimental here as is the lack of experience taking snaps directly from center. He’s third on the depth chart and one day it sounds like he will see snaps in the Wildcat formations and other packages. The next it sounds like he could redshirt all together. And then it sounds like he’ll have to play if Masoli’s transfer waiver is not approved. Honestly with Masoli arriving as late as he did the whole offense, but especially the passing game, is still a work in progress.
Depth is a huge issue at receiver. Its hard to say who’s really going to get the ball much since only two guys return that have played meaningful snaps. I fully expect us to rely on the running game primarily this year. The main returning wide receiver is senior Markeith Summers who’s been a solid player for the last three years mainly serving as the deep threat but never been a standout. He’s got the tools to be a solid receiver and the coaches are asking a lot from him this year to step up an be the leader of the group. The other receiver who returns with experience is Lionel Brauex. Not much is expected from him other than to be the usual fourth or fifth receiver as he has been his whole career. The breakout guy in fall camp has been redshirt sophomore Melvin Harris. Harris is very tall and was signed years ago as a red zone threat. His first two years he really struggled with his hands. This fall something clicked and now he’s catching the ball and making great plays with it. During the scrimmages he’s completely outperformed expectations by being more than a possession receiver and breaking long plays and making plays after the catch. However its yet to be seen if he’ll be able to do it in live games. True sophomore Jesse Grandy will start at the slot position and is the most explosive receiver. After these three its really a grab bag of converted tailback Korvic Neat, converted defensive back Derrick Herman, and true freshman Vincent Sanders.
At running back we lose Dexter so there is going to be a significant drop off. Doubtful there is another running back with his explosiveness. If there is one its true freshman Jeff Scott who has really impressed the coaches during fall camp. He will not start but its sound more and more like he’s going to get a lot of carries and be the primary change of pace back. The starter will be Brandon Bolden who has started off and own the last two years. He’s a solid back who does everything well but nothing at an elite level. Behind him is former blue chip recruit and fellow junior Enrique Davis. Davis has not lived up to the billing the first two years and barely played as a sophomore. The coaches are saying that he’s finally improved his flexibility and he’s prepared to finally break out. Devin Thomas looks to also get carries in special formations, which I would assume is the option sets with Masoli.
The offensive line returns two and a half starters. I say two and a half because junior right guard Rishaw Johnson started about half the games last year before being suspended for the remainder of the year for team rules violations. However, he’s the best run blocker on the team. Right tackle Bobby Massie returns and is expected to be a solid player. Bradley Sowell also returns at left tackle. He struggled initially last year in his first attempt as a starting left tackle in the SEC. However he greatly improved as the season went on and this fall he’s become the most consistent offensive lineman and the leader of the group. Center is still not settled with Evan Swindall and AJ Hawkins battling back and forth to become the starter. One reportedly has trouble snapping but is the better blocker. Nutt has said its his biggest concern right now. Left guard for now appears to be Alex Washington. There is some depth here but its all very young and inexperienced. Ferbia Allen will start at tightend. Last year he was essentially an extra lineman. This year the coaches have indicated they will throw to him more but that remains to be seen. There is virtually no depth at tightend in part because Orgeron never signed an eligible one in in three seasons.
Bottom line. The offense is a work in progress that does not return many play makers. Hopefully some will emerge as the season progresses but I’m not expecting a lot of points.
DEFENSE
The defensive line is the absolute strongest part of the team. Of course this is the only position that Orgeron could recruit at all so it makes sense that this is where all of the veteran leadership and experience resides. Senior folk hero defensive tackle Jerrell Powe returns and is getting some publicity as a potential first round draft pick next April. Behind him at nose guard is senior Ted Laurent who would start for most of the teams in the SEC and is also getting praise as a potential NFL guy. Defensive tackle also has two seniors in Lawon Scott and LaMark Armour. Scott has started the last couple of years and is very solid in stopping the running game. At end the player that is possibly the leader of the defense is Kentrell Lockett. He’s started for a couple of years as well and is very disruptive. The other end spot is maned by JUCO transfer Wayne Dorsey who has gotten a lot of praise from the coaches that he belongs with the rest of the starters. The depth is not as experienced at end as it is at tackle with the next two being a redshirt sophomore and a greyshirt freshman. The coaches like the potential of both they just don’t have the experience. All in all though this is a group that could compete with anyone in the conference outside Alabama and Florida. The rest of the team couldn’t. But the defensive line could.
The linebacker corps also returns a lot of experience and should be one of the team assets. This group is not loaded with future high draft picks like the line is but it does have solid SEC players who have started for three years in middle linebacker Jonathan Cornell and strong side linebacker Allen Walker. The other starter is true sophomore Joel Kight who got a lot of playing time in reserve last year. The most talented of all is sophomore DT Shackelford who is considered a starter by the coaches and plays all three positions. Outside DT the backups are true freshmen that the coaches like the potential from but we hope they don’t have to be counted on to start.
The weak spot on the defense, at least initially, will be in the secondary where the Rebels have to replace three starters including both cornerbacks. They have two veterans in Marcus Temple and Jeremy MacGee slated to start at this point. However redshirt freshman Charles Sawyer has the most talent at the position just lacks the experience. Its expected that he will be a starter by the time SEC play opens. Behind him the coaches are still searching for a fourth corner between a converted safety, Frank Crawford, who has a lot of promise but is very raw and a true freshman, Tony Grimes, who’s got a lot of ability but was cleared late. Johnny Brown returns at strong safety and he’s a solid player with plenty of experience but is not an elite All SEC type. Free safety was won by default when Fon Ingram hurt his knee causing him to miss the first three games. Instead it will be Juco transfer Damien Jackson who has looked very good in spring and fall camps. He’s probably got the most ability of all three but doesn’t have the experience of trying to cover SEC receivers and is still a work in progress. The fourth safety is a name to remember. Not necessarily because of his talent, although it looks like he’ll be a pretty good player. No because true freshman Brishen Mathews looks like either Jesus or Bo Bice. Take your pick. But there will be many a message board joke about Mathews before the season is over so this is your chance to jump on that early.
Bottom line. The defense should be one of the better units in the SEC especially if the offense does not leave it on the field all day. I fully expect the team to lean on the defense all season and try to win a lot of low scoring games with field position and avoiding turnovers.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Rebels return punter Tyler Campbell who had a pretty good freshman season. Averaged over 40 yards per punt. Has worked on directional punting and increasing his hang time during the off season. Kickoff specialist Andrew Ritter also returns. If a kickoff specialist can be solid I guess he was last year and is expected to be again. The Rebels lost to graduation a four year starter at kicker, and he is replaced by redshirt sophomore Bryson Rose. Rose has looked good in practice in mid-range and in kicks in practice. Nobody expects many long kicks out of him. Remains to be seen if he can perform under the pressure of thousands of fans and big time SEC opponents.
Bottom line. Campbell better be ready this year because they are counting on him to flip field position and help the defense. Same with Ritter. With the expectations on offense Rose will have to hit the manageable field goals to win the close games that we hope the defense keeps us in. If he falters it could be a rough season.
SCHEDULE
The Rebels got a bit lucky in the scheduling department this year. Of the non-conference opponents they face Jacksonville State, Tulane, La-Lafayette, and Fresno State. All but Tulane at home. Fresno is easily considered the toughest of them and the Rebels get in the Mississippi heat during the fourth game of the season. The Rebels should win the other three. Ole Miss also draws about as favorable Eastern Division slate as can be asked of with Vandy, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Vandy and Kentucky are also at home. Granted each have beaten Ole Miss in recent years and could very well do it again. But on paper it is more favorable than playing South Carolina, Georgia or Florida. This makes the first five games of Jacksonville State, at Tulane, Vandy, Fresno and Kentucky very manageable with four at home. It should also help with a young team as the schedule gets progressively harder in those first five to prepare for the Western division games. Where the schedule does not help the Rebels is against its traditional Western opponents as Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU are all on the road this year. Auburn and Mississippi State travel to Oxford.
Ole Miss has not gone undefeated in September in my lifetime. So I fully expect to lose to one of Vandy, Kentucky, or Fresno if not two of them. Ole Miss has won in Tuscaloosa once in my life time. Even against non bowl contenting Bama teams. I see no way whatsoever the Rebels win that game. Auburn also has Ole Miss’s number for the most part as the defense struggles against spread option teams more than any other offense. So I do not feel positive about that game at all. We always play LSU tough, except Orgeron’s first season, and always in Baton Rouge. Granted that does not mean a win. Tennessee will likely depend on if the team is still playing hard for Dooley or not. If they surprise prognosticators and are playing well and look to be in bowl contention in November that is going to be a hard game. Arkansas is improved and will play up for Nutt returning to Fayetteville. With Mallett at the helm hard to predict a win there. MSU is very improved and will play for a bowl this year. But the Rebels will be a bit revenge minded after last years humiliating loss. Home team has won this game for the last decade outside Eli’s senior year.
Bottom line. Ole Miss got a bit lucky, by SEC standards, with the schedule this year. They could make a bowl just because of a lucky schedule even after getting swept against SEC west opponents.
So final prognostications I see 7-5 with three wins over the non Fresno non conference games, two wins out of Vandy, Kentucky, and Fresno, an upset win over either LSU or Tennessee, and another one somewhere sending the Rebels to lovely Orange Mound to play the CUSA champs in the Liberty Bowl. Hopefully. Bama is a sure loss, and Auburn and Arkansas look pretty close at this point. If the offense steps up 8-4 is possible. If it does not, 5-7 is also very possible.
– Jorgbacca
