The progress that the Alabama program has made in what really is a short period of time under Nick Saban can best be demonstrated by a 10-3 season being a major disappointment. After starting the year ranked #1, the season went off the rails in Columbia with a dispirited loss to South Carolina, followed by come-from-ahead losses to LSU and most painfully Auburn. But expectations are high again; this year, the Tide starts ranked #2.
Offense
Alabama loses five starters on offense; three of them were first-round draft picks, and a fourth was a two-year starting quarterback with a national championship on his resume. The passing game will have to be basically rebuilt with the loss of a record-breaking receiver who had more than twice as many catches as anyone else on the team, and while the offensive line returns four starters, the one graduate played the most important position on the line and there’s no experienced backup. It turns out that the one guy that the Tide can most easily replace is the 2009 Heisman Trophy winner.
At quarterback, there is no clear frontrunner to replace Greg McElroy between 2010 backup AJ McCarron, a sophomore, and redshirt freshman Phillip Sims. McCarron has more “experience”, in the form of 48 passes last year in mostly mopup duty, plus one desperation drive against Auburn when McElroy was hurt. Sims was the top quarterback recruit in the country two years ago (though it was considered a down year for quarterbacks) and is probably the more physically talented player. Nick Saban is perfectly capable of pretending to have a job battle going on while knowing all along who the starter is, but from all appearances this is still an open race. I expect that it won’t be until at least the second week of the season, at Penn State, that someone is formally the primary quarterback. The third-stringer, for now, is Blake Sims (no relation) who was recruited as an “athlete” and expected at the time to move to the defensive backfield, but who has been impressive in practice.
At running back, Mark Ingram’s departure makes Trent Richardson the main man; considering the situation in the passing game, the offense will primarily ride Richardson, at least early in the year. It is a measure of Richardson’s ability, and his performances as a backup, that a player with two career starts is on the Heisman Trophy short list to start the season. Despite missing two games, Richardson rushed for 719 yards last season. He’s a rare blend of speed and power, and has thrived in the passing game as a receiver and blocker; he doesn’t have quite Ingram’s instincts but he’s got more than enough. The top backup would appear to be Eddie Lacy, a redshirt sophomore who also has loads of talent but maybe not the moves of a top-flight running back. Depth is a moderate concern after some transfers and an injury to true freshman Dee Hart, who had moved up the depth chart and was perhaps even challenging Lacy. The third-string right now is Jalston Fowler, a pure power back who got limited carries in 2010, followed by Brent Calloway, a true freshman who could move up quickly. Blake Sims could also move here if there is a rash of injuries. Alabama rarely utilizes a fullback except in sporadic goalline situations; last year, Fowler filled that role.
At wide receiver, Julio Jones’ departure for the NFL doesn’t necessarily mean all the Tide passing game is gone with him, but it takes a big chunk. Jones dominated the receiving charts last year, catching 78 passes for 1133 yards; the new top receiver, senior Marquis Maze, was second on the team with 38 and 557. Maze is better suited for a secondary role, as he lacks the desired size for a #1 receiver, at least in Alabama’s pro-style offense, but he’s a three-year starter with a history of making some tough catches, and has had a few games where he stepped up when Jones was shut down. The #2 receiver would be senior Darius Hanks, a co-starter with Maze the last couple of years, coming off of a 32 catch season of his own. Hanks will miss the first two games due to some NCAA regulatory sillyness. This only opens the door wider for DeAndrew White, a redshirt freshman who has been the talk of fall camp; not a day goes by where he isn’t getting praised by Saban and/or his teammates. White appears to be the starter to begin the season, and if he performs as expected Hanks may not get the job back. It was hoped that JUCO transfer Duron Carter, son of Cris, could move right into the rotation, but he has been having problems with admission and it’s not clear yet when and if he will be cleared. Senior Brandon Gibson has been tantalizing in practice but doing very little in games for a couple of years now; he had only four receptions last year. There are also some underclassmen, Kevin Norwood and Kenny Bell, with a little game experience but not much production.
Alabama’s base package alternates between three receivers and two tight ends. One tight end spot is fixed, as junior Michael Williams returns as the starter. Williams is primarily a blocker, though he did have eight catches last year; he has good hands but isn’t really fast enough to get downfield. At the H-back slot, the Tide must replace Preston Dial, who was fourth on the team in catches last season and served as McElroy’s security blanket. The best passcatcher among returnees is Brad Smelley, who was in the rotation last year in some passing situations, but he so far hasn’t been enough of a blocker to stay in the lineup. Chris Underwood played in every game last year, mostly in short-yardage situations, and if he can show pass-catching skills in practice could win the job. Or redshirt freshman Brian Vogler, a top recruit last season, could move in.
On the offensive line, the main task this offseason was replacing two-year starter and first-round NFL pick James Carpenter at left tackle. In the past, the coaching staff has tended to move linemen around to get the best five on the field, and in this case the decision was made to put the best lineman at the most important position, shifting Barrett Jones from right guard to left tackle. Anthony Steen, who started two games in Jones’ place during an injury last year, seems settled in at the right guard spot. The other three positions will, barring injury or other issues, be stable. Junior Chance Warmack will return at left guard, where he was okay in his first year as a starter in 2010. Senior William Vlachos returns for his third year as a starter at center; he wasn’t quite as good in 2010 as in 2009, but he’s one of the rocks of the offense. And sophomore DJ Fluker moved in immediately at right tackle last year and was outstanding, particularly in the running game. There’s a fair amount of depth now. True freshman Cyrus Kouandjio should be the backup at left tackle, and if impressive enough could free up Jones to move back inside. His brother Arie, a redshirt freshman, looks like the top backup at the other tackle. Senior Alfred McCullough has backed up all over the line and started a little, but is a natural guard and will probably play there. Only at center is there no clear backup, though there’s some talent there; Jones has actually worked as the backup during fall practice.
Defense
Ten starters return from the SEC’s top defense, and expectations are high that this one could be something special. There are some doubts along the offensive line, but most of a strong linebacking corps, and all of a surprisingly good young defensive backfield, return. The defense even showed, late in the year, an ability to get to the quarterback, which has been a problem in the Saban era. If a good line rotation can be found, the defense could carry this team a long way.
There’s probably no part of the team where there’s as big of a gap between how highly touted the recruits were and how much they’ve actually produced as on the defensive line. The most accomplished member of the line is probably fifth-year senior nose tackle Josh Chapman, but he’s a support player, not a playmaker, and last year the dropoff from Terrance Cody to Chapman was noticeable, especially against the run. Behind Chapman, there Nick Gentry, a rush specialist too light to be an every-down player and a couple of raw recruits, redshirt freshman Brandon Ivory and massive JUCO transfer Jesse Williams, and it would help immensely if one of the latter two could step up. At end, one starter will definitely be junior Damian Square, who played regularly but not spectacularly last year coming back from a knee injury. If Square’s explosiveness returns in his second year after surgery, it would go a long way to replacing Marcel Dareus. There’s no telling who will wind up starting at the other end position, perhaps converted linebacker Ed Stinson, or JUCO transfer Quentin Dial. The most impressive player among the linemen, at least physically, might be true freshman LaMichael Fanning, but he is considered a character risk. Quite likely, in passing situations the only two true linemen on the field will be Square and Gentry, as last year it was Dareus and Gentry.
A big reason for the latter is the talent returning at linebacker, led by seniors Dont’a Hightower and Courtney Upshaw, who would be the ends in pass-rush situations. Inside linebacker Hightower returned from a major knee injury last year looking overweight and sluggish, but as the season went on his mobility and playmaking improved. Outside backer Upshaw was slowed by ankle problems early on but by the end of the season was the team’s top playmaker, and led the way with seven sacks. At the inside position opposite Hightower, the Tide utilized a platoon of run-stopper Nico Johnson and coverage specialist CJ Mosley much of last season. Mosley has bulked up a little to help against the run and may be the team’s next big defensive star, while Johnson is not that bad of a pass defender really. Jerell Harris seems to be the frontrunner at the one open position, the outside linebacker spot opposite Upshaw, but the senior Harris has never really lived up to his considerable talents. Someone else, perhaps Alex Watkins, could take the job, or they could choose to shuffle Mosley, or inside backup Chris Jordan, outside to get the four best LBs on the field at the same time.
Last year, the defensive backfield looked like a woefully inexperienced possible weakness. As it turned out it played as well as could possibly be expected, and throwing the younger players into the fire led to a now very experienced and deep crew. Some remarkably early projections have junior Dre Kirkpatrick as the top cornerback in this year’s draft, which is interesting because Saban considers senior De’Quan Menzie the team’s top corner. Menzie came back amazingly quickly from an achilles tendon injury to play in all but one game last year. He was limited to nickel duty, but this year will move into the starting lineup. Kirkpatrick has the ideal size and speed looked for in a modern corner, and was the team’s top cover man last year with Menzie limited, and together they give the Tide a strong starting pair. Backing them up and supplementing them in nickel packages (which will probably be half the time or more) will be DeMarcus Milliner. Thrown to the wolves as a true freshman last year, he was pretty good if occasionally victimized as freshman corners will be. Behind them, senior Phelon Jones and sophomore John Fulton will battle it out for dimeback duty, though both will play.
A year ago, the idea that safety might be the strongest position on the 2011 team would have seemed very unlikely. But then Mark Barron wound up returning for his senior year, and Robert Lester suddenly materialized as a force at the other position. Barron probably would have gone pro after a stellar season in which he led the team in tackles, but tore a pectoral muscle against Auburn and was going to be unable to participate fully in pre-draft workouts. An All-America candidate, he’s one of the leaders of the team. Lester, originally thought of as just positional depth and a buddy for high school teammate Julio Jones, won the other safety position basically by default, then went on to lead the conference with eight interceptions. He’s still a work in progress in some parts of the game, but his ballhawking skills and athleticism definitely come in handy. Behind them last year was former walkon Will Lowery, but he might be supplanted by top recruit Ha’Sean Clinton-Dix.
Special Teams
Even more than the secondary, special teams had to be replaced top to bottom in 2010. The results were okay, nothing special. The Tide employed a kicking platoon of Jeremy Shelley on short field goals and extra points and Cade Foster on long kicks and kickoffs. It worked pretty well. Shelley was 10 of 14 on field goals and missed only one PAT, and Foster hit 7 of 9 field goals, including 5 of 6 from 40 to 49 yards, and had ten touchbacks. Cody Mandell handled the punting, and showed occasional signs of having a big leg that could be a weapon, but was inconsistent and didn’t improve as the season went on. McCarron was the holder on kicks last season; if he is the starting quarterback, he potentially could be replaced.
The primary kickoff return man last season was Richardson, and the primary punt return man was Maze. Whether the team would use their top back and top receiver in those roles is unknown, though Richardson is probably more likely to be replaced. There are a number of fast players who could take over the role if needed.
Schedule
The usual SEC gauntlet supplemented by a usual Saban nonconference schedule of one high-profile opponent (Penn State) and three fresh cupcakes (Kent State, North Texas, and Georgia Southern), with the only variant from the usual that the Penn State game is on the road instead of neutral or in Tuscaloosa. In the SEC, Vandy replaces South Carolina in the cycle, which is obviously a much easier matchup on paper. The Commodores will visit Tuscaloosa, along with Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU; the Tide goes on the road to Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and most critically Auburn.
Outlook
It seems impossible that anyone could navigate an SEC schedule well enough to qualify for the BCS championship game, but it keeps happening, and most observers seem to think that if it happens this year Alabama or LSU will be the team… And Alabama gets LSU at home this year. The schedule is easier than last year’s, because of the replacement of USC with Vandy and because fewer teams will have a bye week before playing the Tide this time. It’s still a bear, if you forgive the expression, and a lot of the “easiness” is mitigated by the Penn State and Florida games now being on the road. The Tide can get back to the championship, but will need some luck, particularly avoiding major injuries to playmakers on offense (especially Trent Richardson), and will need the passing game to gel. They’re as good of a pick as anyone in the SEC West or nationally.
