So last year I started of describing the returning starters on defense and how the defense would probably have to carry the offense because the offense lost its starting running back, the only 1000 receiver in Ole Miss history and starting quarterback. I don’t know how it would be possible to be more wrong. All it took was the first game to show I had no idea what I was talking about as the Rebels lost embarrassingly to Jacksonville State thanks to a defense that gave up 49 points. The same defense also gave up fifty points twice. And thirty points in two of its wins. All in all it was the most points surrendered by an Ole Miss team in a single season in team history.
OFFENSE
So lets move on and talk about the offense. Once again its two weeks from gameday and its still a three quarterback race. At least publicly three are in the race. Most seem to think its really a two quarterback race between Randall Mackey and Barry Brunetti. The presumable third QB is Zach Stoudt who started his career in Louisville, transferred to an Iowa junior college, and signed with Ole Miss in December in time to go through spring practice. He’s the pro style QB of the group and has a strong arm. Mackey and Brunetti are both read option QB’s and have outperformed Stoudt to this point. Mackey signed with the Rebels out of highschool but had to start in Junior College. He had an amazing career there leading to being named the 2009 National Junior College Association first team All American. Cam Newton was second. No one argues who is better though as Cam has a Heisman and Mackey redshirted. He has a smaller frame and is reportedly the better passer of the two. Brunetti signed with West Virginia out of high school but transferred in January to be closer to home and the NCAA granted him a waiver to play immediately because of a medical condition of his mother. Brunetti is the smartest of the three, runs the best, makes the best decisions and reads the defenses the best but throws the least impressive deep ball. All three went through spring practice making the lack of a names starter even more ominous of poor quarterback play for 2011. [EDITOR'S NOTE: Mackey was recently arrested, and Brunetti will be the starter.]
Depth returns as huge issue at receiver. Luckily there are bodies this year but they are all young bodies. The Rebels could easily end up starting two true freshman receivers for the majority of the year because they are faster and more athletic than the upper classmen. Three freshman will a battle between Tobias Singleton, Donte Moncrief, and Nick Brassell to become the go to guy. Of the returners Ja-Mes Logan is the most consistent, best route runner, and most likely to catch the ball of all the receivers. He’s not overly fast or athletic though. The most athletic receiver on the team from a year ago also redshirted in 2010. That is Vincent Sanders, who is struggling a bit to catch the ball. There is only one junior or senior receiver and that is senior slot receiver Derrick Herman who will help on special teams. Outside them you have one undersized receiver with great speed in Korvic Neat, and one with great height in Melvin Harris, who both are inconsistent in catching the ball.
Which could explain why the Rebels should lean on the running game early in 2011. First pre season third team All SEC running back Brandon Bolden returns. Bolden was 24 yards short of 1000 last year but still had an impressive 6.0 yards per carry average. Had the Rebels not spent the majority of the season playing catch up because of the defense he easily would have broken a thousand. Bolden is the all around back that excels in blocking, running through the tackles, around the tackles, and catching the ball. He was also the Rebels leading receiver last year with more catches than any of the wide receivers catching 32 passes for 344 yards. A good season and he breaks Deuce McAllister’s career rushing and touchdown marks. Behind him is scat back Jeff Scott, who should see a lot of carries and is a true home run threat. Enrique Davis is the back up running back and will get a lot of carries on goal line for a reason I’m not sure of. Devin Thomas and Nick Parker could see situational carries as well. HR Greer and EJ Epperson make up the fullbacks and both are solid blockers and catch the ball well.
The offensive line somehow returns nine starters. This is mostly because of injuries as multiple players rotated in and out over the season. The consistent starters were Bobby Massie and Bradley Sowell at right and left tackle respectively. Both are multi year starters and are receiving some Pre Season All SEC accolades. Inside is where the Rebels rotated repeatedly in 2010 with Josh Tatum, Michael Brown, Patrick Junen, Alex Washington, Jared Duke all getting at least one start at guard and returning and both AJ Hawkins and Evan Swindall getting starts at center. By the end of the season Hawkins settled in at center and is slated to start again. The guard spots never fully settled last season with there actually being one other player getting a start who did not return. Matt Hall transferred from Arkansas, is a reported 6’9″ 340, and is in line to start at right guard. Left guard appears to be Patrick Junen but the race is not over there. All in all it’s a veteran line with plenty of experience that should help Bolden create some offense and a quarterback develop. Also better run blockers than pass blockers at this stage.
At tight end Ferbia Allen returns as the starter but is not exactly a major offensive weapon. Juco transfer Jamal Mosley brings a lot more athleticism and pass catching ability and should be a bigger factor in the offense. How much the Rebels will feature the tight end in 2011 remains to be seen and I imagine which QB ends up starting will dictate that.
Bottom line. The passing game is still a work in progress. Expect the Rebels to try and grind it out, run the ball, and control the clock at least in the early part. Nutt generally finds a way to put some sort of offense on the field despite having little to work with, including last year. He’ll presumably find something by the end of the year and it could look completely different by then depending on which quarterback falls out.
DEFENSE
I guess we have to talk about the defense now.
Last year it was expected that the defensive line would be the strength of the team. That proved to be horribly incorrect. While a number of veterans returned they never played to expectations. One of which was Kentrell Lockett because he torn his ACL after previous nagging injuries and he has successfully appealed to the NCAA for a sixth year. He will start again at defensive end and is hoped he will be the leader that he was in 2009. On the other side Wayne Dorsey has made leaps and bounds over the off season and looks to finally capitalize on the talent he brought out of the junior college ranks last year after struggling in major college football in 2010. Jason Jones is his main competition and he is solid against the run. Carlos Thompson and Gerald Rivers should also see some action on passing downs. Four defensive tackles graduated last year and only one player returns with experience, Justin Smith. Smith should play some but the expected starters at this point are redshirt freshman Carlton Martin and Juco transfer Uriah Grant. Neither are huge Terrance Cody style run stuffers but more athletic quick disruptive tackle types. The Rebels do have one large run stuffer in Juco transfer Gilbert Pena who should get a lot of snaps on short yardage and goal line situations. In obvious passing downs another redshirt freshman Byron Bennett has shown some ability to get after the passer from the tackle position. Talent is there on the line but it is very inexperienced outside Lockett so its hard to know what to expect.
The linebacker corps has even less experience and less depth. Mainly because the expected leader of the defense, DT Shackelford tore his ACL in spring practice and another expected starter was removed from the team for disciplinary reasons. There is potential DT could return late in the season but it is highly unlikely. Mike Marry provided depth last year and is probably the leader of the linebacking core this year. He could start at weak or in the middle depending on who else steps up. Redshirt freshman Ralph Williams is behind him the middle but would presumably start if Marry starts at weak side. Joel Kight is a returning starter from last season and will play on the strong side. He has plenty of speed for a linebacker but needs to find a little more consistency with his play. After those three the Rebels will either play true freshman or safeties in a hybrid look. One true freshman who does look to play a lot and could even start on the weakside in a relatively short period of time is Keith Lewis. The lack of experience and depth would be a greater concern if the Rebels played well at linebacker last year because the general consensus is they can not play worse than they did in 2012.
The secondary returns some players that look to have greatly improved from last season. Which is hopeful considering the Rebels were 11th in the conference in passing defense giving up 246 yards per game. (Granted they were also 11th in total defense, 12th in scoring defense, 12th in defensive pass efficiency, and 9th in rushing defense). So even a good deal of improvement may not be enough to be considered “average” or “mediocre.” Marcus Temple returns from last year after recovering from a sports hernia he played the season with. He’s in a dog fight with juco transfer Wesley Pendleton for one spot. The other spot is expected to be manned by Charles Sawyer who has reportedly had a great fall camp and really improved on his redshirt freshman season. Redshirt freshman Cliff Coleman and true freshman Senquez Golson will be the primary backups with Golson having a chance to take a starting spot if anyone falters. It would also not surprise anyone that the Rebels made a change at secondary coach and Keith Burns whose style appears to fit the personnel better. At safety Brishen Mathews and Damien Jackson look to be the starters with Frank Crawford, Ivan Nicholas, Cody Prewitt and Aaron Garbutt all seeing playing time in different packages. Again the Rebel fans are optimistic that the improved play they’ve heard about in the fall camp is present come gameday.
Bottom line. I made one of the worst predictions in modern day history stating, “The defense should be one of the better units in the SEC.” Instead the Rebels had the worst defense they have ever fielded in not only its modern history but its over a hundred year history. The optimistic feeling is they can not be that bad again. We hope. No one is expecting much.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Rebels return punter Tyler Campbell who had a solid sophomore season of driving the ball. He has all the leg strength in the world and can absolutely kill the ball. But he has to work on his hang time and directional punting to be more effective to avoid the net 20 yard punts when punting through the endzone. Kickoff specialist Andrew Ritter also returns. Again: great leg, when he keeps it in bounds. Which is not as often as one would expect from a kickoff specialist. Bryson Rose exceeded expectations and was a solid kicker for the Rebels. Not a huge leg but very consistent and should be a major asset again.
Bottom line. Everybody returns, Rose is solid, Campbell and Ritter have strong legs but don’t regularly make the most of them.
SCHEDULE
The Rebels got lucky with the schedule last year and completely bombed. This years schedule isn’t brutal but is definitely harder. They start with BYU at home who have a returning quarterback and good passing game. Conventional wisdom places the Rebels as under dogs as does Vegas. The other non conference games are Southern Illinois, Fresno State, and La Tech with Fresno on the road. As the Rebels proved by losing to Jacksonville State last year anything is possible. In the east they have Georgia at home, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt on the road. The high light of last season was either beating Fresno or Kentucky so maybe they can win one or both on the road this year. I fully expect the trend to continue with Vanderbilt where the Rebels are the only team to struggle against them in SEC play. They play LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas at home. I do not expect home field advantage to help. Auburn and Mississippi State conclude the road trips.
Looks like five games the Rebels have a chance in. That’s Vandy, Kentucky, Fresno, La Tech and Southern Illinois. By chance meaning possible and no in no way expected to win. In fact expect the Rebels to lose to one or two of those in the most horribly embarrassing way possible. Ole Miss can not beat Alabama when Alabama is bad (and they are good) so don’t expect much there. Same applies for Auburn. I expect Arkansas, Georgia and LSU to have too much talent to compete with though they give LSU a close loss. (Its what the Rebels do). BYU and MSU have offensive schemes that will make a victory doubtful but an upset could occur with the right extrinsic factors. Like a 99 degree day with 104 heat index.
Bottom line. Most of the tougher games are at home with most of the winnable games on the road. If we were a good team that would be great. As a team dreaming of winning six games that makes it that much tougher and harder to see them getting there.
So final prognostications.
I hate making predictions and feel like all it will do is doom the Rebels. I think a losing season is more than likely in order with 5-7 with one horrible loss in there that keeps the Rebels out of the Birmingham Bowl and dashing my dreams of vacationing in Alabama a plausible scenario.
– George
