Fresh off its first bowl appearance in over a quarter-century (and first bowl win in over a half-century), the Vanderbilt football program has high expectations heading into 2009, and with good reason. The team returns 9 starters on both offense and defense, and while one potential impact player failed to qualify, most expect this year’s team to be better on paper than last year’s. Of course, this year’s schedule is more difficult, and the Commodores can’t expect all of the good breaks it got in posting a winning record last year, so whether that on-paper improvement translates into on-field improvement is yet to be seen.
Quarterbacks
While Bobby Johnson has yet to name an official starter, most around the program are confident that Larry Smith will be the man in 2009. Seen as the program’s future since he signed his LOI three years ago, the redshirt sophomore should, with the graduation of Chris Nickson, finally get a chance to show what he can do for a full season. Smith, who showed glimpses of his ability in the regular-season finale against Wake Forest and in more extended action against Boston College in the Music City Bowl, has a strong, very accurate arm and is elusive in the pocket, though not much of a running threat. He will be backed up by redshirt senior Mack Adams. Adams has been inconsistent throughout his career, but he knows the offense and is one of the better athletes on the team; he ought to be one of the better backups in the conference at the position. Redshirt junior Jared Funk will be third on the depth chart, while Parade All-American Charlie Goro ought to be able to redshirt as he learns the system in his first year in the program.
Running Backs
Last year’s starter, Jared Hawkins, returns and should be healthy for the start of his redshirt senior season. One of the more underrated players in the conference over the past few seasons, Hawkins is a tough runner who’s fast enough to be an effective back, when healthy; he’s had trouble staying that way for extended stretches throughout his career, though. Backing him up will be a trio of talented freshmen, Zac Stacy, Wesley Tate, and Warren Norman, all of whom have been very impressive so far this fall. Also getting carries will be redshirt juniors Gaston Miller, who is small and fumble-prone, and Kennard Reeves, who in practice and limited game action has always seemed like a potential weapon, but for whatever reason—possibly attitude, possibly pass-blocking failures—never gets an extended look. Look for the Commodores to run a lot more with the tailbacks and less with the quarterback in 2009; look for this to be a good thing.
Receivers & Tight Ends
The worst news of the offseason is that transfer receiver Terrence Jeffers failed to get eligible for the season, leaving Vanderbilt without what would have been its biggest offensive weapon in the all-conference-type playmaker. However, even without Jeffers and Justin Wheeler, the senior who’s career ended with a knee injury in spring practice, the Commodore coaches believe the receiving corps is going to be productive this year. Honestly, it can’t be any worse than last year. Redshirt senior Alex Washington has finally fully recovered from last season’s knee injury, and he’ll be the leader of the unit. A breakout season is expected from redshirt sophomore Udom Umoh, a speedster who will be counted on as a deep threat. Redshirt freshman John Cole and true freshman Brady Brown should see a lot of snaps, too. Filling out the rotation will be converted tight end Justin Green (a redshirt junior), redshirt freshman Akeem Dunham, and transfer Tray Herndon (a redshirt sophomore). All of these guys are going to need to produce with Vanderbilt incorporating a lot of no-huddle into their spread attack this season. At tight end, Vanderbilt will rely on redshirt sophomores Brandon Barden and Austin Monahan, both of whom are big and athletic; its one of the better tight end duos in the conference.
Offensive Line
Vanderbilt returns its entire starting O-line, led by captain Bradley Vierling at center and Thomas Welch, a 6’7” beast at left tackle who is likely to get more and more NFL attention as the season goes on. It will not be surprising if Welch’s stock rises to the point where he’s a first-round pick in April, as happened with Chris Williams two years ago. The line is expected to be a real strength this year, with redshirt sophomores Kyle Fischer and James Williams expected to push for starting time.
Defensive Line
The defensive line also returns all of its starters in 2009: redshirt senior ends Steven Stone and Broderick Stewart (who is healthy again after an ankle injury and will once again be a terror), and tackles Greg Billinger (a senior) and Adam Smotherman (a redshirt junior). Providing depth a will be junior Theron Kadri and redshirt sophomore Tim Fugger, an absolute freak of nature, along with redshirt sophomore T. J. Greenstone and a horde of redshirt freshmen. It seems strange to say it, but the D-line is probably Vanderbilt’s deepest position this year, and it could well be one of the better units in the SEC.
Linebackers
All the starters in the linebacking corps return for Vanderbilt in 2009, too, led by senior Patrick Benoist on the weak side and redshirt sophomore Chris Marve in the middle. (For those keeping track, that’s the entire O-line and defensive front seven returning for this season; and you wonder why folks in Nashville are optimistic?) On the strong side, both John Stokes and Brent Trice—another athletic freak—will see time. Stokes is probably the most technically sound ‘backer on the team, while Trice will be in to get after the quarterback on passing downs. Marve may already be the best linebacker in the conference and will be an All-American sometime in the near future. This is a very strong group.
Secondary
While the Commodores lost two big-time players, corner D. J. Moore and strong safety Reshard Langford, to the NFL, the unit returns more pro talent and has a few younger players ready to take over where the previous guys left off. Senior Myron Lewis, the 6’3” pro scouts’ dream who had five interceptions and five sacks last season, will shut down one side of the field before being a first-day selection in April. The second corner and nickelback positions will be split by sophomore Casey Hayward, who showed flashes of brilliance at the end of last season, particularly in the bowl game, and redshirt sophomore Jamie Graham, who was moved back to the defensive backfield, where his professional future lies, after spending a year at receiver due to depth issues in 2008. Providing depth will be true freshman sensation Eric Samuels and, if necessary, true freshmen Trey Wilson, Javon Marshall, and Eddie Foster. (Ideally, those three would redshirt, but the Commodores are thin at corner this year and that may not be possible.) Redshirt senior and all-conference performer Ryan Hamilton returns at free safety. The biggest concern is at strong safety, where Langford, who started for four years and was the unquestioned leader of the defense, has to be replaced, but the coaches love sophomore Sean Richardson and believe he’s up to the task. Redshirt freshman Micah Powell could be a player to watch at safety, as well.
Special Teams
Returning to handle the punting duties will be senior Brett Upson, the all-conference player and Music City Bowl MVP who was one of Vanderbilt’s biggest defensive weapons last season. With the graduation of VU’s all-time leading scorer, Bryant Hahnfeldt, the placekicking reigns will be handed over to redshirt freshman Ryan Fowler, the first scholarship kicker the Commodores have had in years. Fowler should be up for the job, but if he struggles, you could see Upson doing some placekicking, too. The return game, as seemingly always around this time of year, looks like a crapshoot. Among those with a shot to have an impact as a return man are Washington, Graham, Cole, and Foster.
Outlook
Overall, this should be a good team, again in the middle of the SEC pack. (Most don’t realize that Vanderbilt finished 5th in the conference last year.) The defense, which was 30th in the nation last year, may well be improved even with the losses in the secondary. It’s legitimately elite. The offense, which ranked 117th in 2008, can only get better. The special teams should once again be solid, if unspectacular. (At least this unit isn’t actively losing us games anymore.)
The schedule is a tough one, primarily because it features no bye weeks. By the end of the season, we might really be sucking wind. (Fortunately, almost none of our opponents have favorable bye weeks, but still.) As for the game-by-game breakdown, I see four definite wins (Western Carolina, Mississippi State, at Rice, at Army); one probable win (Kentucky); four toss-ups (Ole Miss, Georgia, at South Carolina, at Tennessee); two probable losses (at LSU, Georgia Tech); and one definite loss (at Florida). All in all, I’d say 6-6 and 7-5 are about equally likely; neither 5-7 nor 8-4 are out of the question, depending on the breaks. The most pivotal game of the season will probably be against Ole Miss on October 3rd. If we’re making it to another bowl, that’s a game we have to win, and we should, considering (a) the game’s in Nashville; (b) we’ve beaten them three times in the last four meetings; and (c) Ole Miss is incredibly overrated going into the season.
Considering all the positive program momentum Bobby Johnson and his staff have produced, both in the media and on the recruiting trail, it’s important to keep it going in that direction; I think we’ll be able to do that with this senior-laden squad.
–Stu
