2009 Alabama Preview

The Crimson Tide surprised everyone last year by opening the season 12-0, moving from being unranked at the start of the season to several weeks at #1, before losing a heartbreaker to Florida in the SEC Championship Game and sleepwalking through a Sugar Bowl loss to Utah. Still, they are ahead of schedule in returning to national prominence, and only now is the bulk of the talent from Nick Saban’s consecutive top recruiting classes really coming on line.

Offense

Alabama loses its starting quarterback, who played almost every down for the last three seasons, and its leading rusher. However, there’s fairly little concern about replacing those losses, or the losses of the two top tight ends, including the team’s second-leading receiver. The talent is on hand to fill those holes. Of more concern is the loss of three offensive linemen, two four-year and one three-year starter, including two All-Americans, one an Outland Trophy winning first-round NFL draft pick.

John Parker Wilson holds essentially all of the Alabama career and single-season passing records. It never really got him a whole lot of respect, even from Alabama fans. Wilson’s so little regarded, in fact, that many think that his backup, junior Greg McElroy, will step in and be at least as good. McElroy played fairly well in an extremely limited role last year, and has shined in spring practice and some outside camps, but he’s taken, by my reckoning, one snap in a truly contested game in his career; I believe he handed off. It remains to be seen if he’s up to playing Wilson’s “game manager” role, much less actually make plays. If he can’t, there will be trouble, as the top backup is a redshirt sophomore walk-on, Thomas Darrah, who played very briefly in 2008; he has a strong arm but is an unknown quantity when it comes to actually playing. Behind him are redshirt freshman Star Jackson (whom some rumors have maybe changing positions), true freshman AJ McCarron, and sophomore legacy/scout team fodder Morgan Ogilvie. Jackson pretty much proved in spring that he’s not ready yet, though he may be used in limited “Wildcat” type roles, and McCarron probably won’t be physically ready for a couple of years, though he apparently has been impressive in camp. If anything happens to McElroy — and considering the hits he took, it’s a wonder nothing ever happened to Wilson — the Tide will be in trouble.

There is practically no concern about the early departure for the NFL of leading rusher Glen Coffee, who last year only rushed for as many yards as any Alabama runner not named “Bobby Humphrey”, 1,383 (tying Shaun Alexander for second on the Alabama list). The biggest reason why not is that top backup Mark Ingram rushed for 783 yards last season as a true freshman, averaging 5.1 yards a carry, and is expected to get stronger in his first full year in college. He’s joined by senior Roy Upchurch, who when he’s not injures is a force, averaging six yards a rush last year and playing an all-purpose role as both a lead blocker in short yardage situations and a pass-catching/draw-running third-down back out of the shotgun. Both are expected to be pushed by the prize of the recruiting class, Trent Richardson, ranked by some recruiting services as the top running back in the country. Richardson promises a combination of speed and size rarely seen in Tuscaloosa and should contribute immediately, though you can never tell with freshmen. Another freshman, Eddie Lacy, was considered academically questionable coming in, but he qualified and has been as impressive as Richardson in fall camp. Terry Grant, the leading rusher in 2007, played sparingly in 2008 and never seemed to get the hang of the offense. It remains to be seen if the coaching staff can find a role for him, as he would make a lot of sense as a change-of-pace back. Depth took a hit with the transfer of a couple of reserves who decided that between Ingram and Richardson they would remain reserves, but there should be enough left to have a deeper rotation than in recent seasons.

The Alabama receiving game last season was essentially Julio Jones, who as a true freshman had 58 receptions (departed tight end Nick Walker, with 32, was the only other player with more than 16) and 940 yards (fourth in school history, and almost three times as much as Walker’s second-place 324). Jones was everything he was supposed to be as the prize recruit of the 2008 class, providing both speed and physical pass-catching to earn all-conference honors. Behind him, though, it’s not even who the other starter, or starters, will be — it’s not even clear if Alabama will go with three receivers, or return to last year’s primary two-tight-end look.

As it stands, Mike McCoy is listed as a returning starter at receiver but plays almost a tight end role, prized more for his downfield blocking than his pass-catching skills. He’s the second-leading returning receiver with 16, but in his two years as a starter has shown little ability to make plays, averaging less than ten yards a reception. Hope for a big-play receiver to take the pressure off of Jones largely rests on the shoulders of Marquis Maze, who is undersized but is the fastest player on the team. Darius Hanks, who was a star in practice in the 2008 offseason, fell through the cracks for most of the season before coming on late. Beyond these four are Earl Alexander, a converted quarterback who has shown talent but also a tendency to get injured, and several freshmen. The assumption is that someone will emerge opposite Jones.

At tight end, the top man is senior Colin Peek, who was allegedly the best tight end on the team last year but was ineligible to play while sitting out a transfer year from Georgia Tech. Peek is big and can catch; in the previous seasons, Alabama really didn’t have a blocking/catching combination at the tight end position. Peek is going to play through a fractured foot; if he can stay in the lineup, he is very likely to finish second on the team in receptions.

Alabama’s base set last year was two tight ends, and they’ll use two or three a lot of the time no matter what, but who other than Peek will be involved isn’t clear. Sophomore Brad Smelley started last year as a redshirt but finished as a member of the playing rotation, and caught some passes from McElroy. He’s bulked up from last year and hopes to be more of an every-down player. Junior Preston Dial started one game last year, but may have been passed in the rotation. Baron Huber, the previous “starting” fullback who hardly ever played, is now listed as a tight end and is likely to be used when a lead blocker is needed. There are also two converted defensive ends, Michael Williams and Undra Billingsley, who could play the “extra offensive lineman” role.

The offensive line loses three starters, two of whom were All-Americans, one of them an Outland Trophy winner and top-ten NFL first round draft pick. The latter, Andre Smith, was greatly missed in the games he was unable to play – against Tulane with an injury and against Utah in the Sugar Bowl due to suspension. The former, Antoine Caldwell, was merely an all-conference center and four-year starter and a team leader. Throw in four-year starting guard Marlon Davis, and there are a lot of holes to fill, though Alabama returns all-conference left guard Mike Johnson and starting right tackle Drew Davis, both seniors.

At least one first-year player is going to start, possibly two. James Carpenter, a JUCO transfer, was in classes in the spring and started at left tackle in the spring game, and seems to have nailed down the position; if anything, he’s more secure than Davis. And mammoth (6-7, 350) true freshman tackle DJ Fluker, another recruiting prize, seems likely to play, possibly backing up both left tackle positions. Fluker is an incredible talent, but has only played offensive line for one year, having started out on defense in high school.

Center appears to be secured by William Vlachos, a junior who has backed up both there and at guard, but who at six feet even is considered too short for the latter position. The one position that hasn’t been settled yet is right guard. Early in camp, the leader seemed to be Alfred McCullough, a converted defensive tackle, but then sophomore Barrett Jones seemingly took over. And if Fluker continues to impress, Davis, who is stronger as a run blocker anyway, could move inside. Alabama offensive line coach Joe Pendry likes to keep his best five linemen on the field, which has probably helped the team as long as the top five remained together, but when players were lost, as Smith last year and as Caldwell and Davis were two years ago in the textbook fiasco, continuity often suffered as the survivors moved around. The top backups, other than Fluker, appear to be Brian Motley (who has played both center and nose tackle in his career but now seems to be a guard), true freshman Chase Warmack, and last year’s top backup, junior David Ross, who was beaten out by Vlachos at center.

Defense

The defense is expected to carry the load early on, both because it has more returning players and because it was the stronger unit last year. Only two players on the 2008 defensive depth chart ran out of eligibility, though several others have transferred out or gone on medical scholarship. Those two losses, however, were the team leader in sacks and the team leader, period, and replacing them, especially the latter, is key. The Tide also needs to strengthen the pass rush, which has been by far the weakest part of the defense under Saban.

Up front, it starts with All-American senior nose tackle Terrance Cody. Cody, who chose to forego the NFL draft though he was a likely first-round pick, has “slimmed” down to about 340 pounds – at his peak, he was over 400 — but “Mount Cody” is still going to have the size advantage on pretty much everyone, and is expected to continue to occupy two blockers on most run plays, and hopes to play more on passing downs this year. Junior Josh Chapman is his backup and usually came in on those plays last year; the strongest man on the team, Chapman would probably be a starter anywhere else in the country. (Of course, most teams use two tackles.) True freshman Darrington Sentimore was thought to be a defensive end coming in, but has been working at tackle and has been impressive there.

Despite the graduation of top pass-rusher Bobby Greenwood, there was relatively little doubt about the defensive ends coming in. Senior Brandon Deaderick, second on the team to Greenwood with four sacks, will flip from the combination DT/DE spot to Greenwood’s vacated pure end position, while top backup Lorenzo Washington, the 2007 starter at nose tackle, takes Deaderick’s place. The Alabama line was undersized for the 3-4 two years ago, but now possesses NFL type bulk, averaging well over 300 pounds, thanks to Cody. Top reserves are sophomore Marcel Dareus and junior Luther Davis, while true freshman Kerry Murphy – who has been trying to qualify at Alabama seemingly since Gene Stallings was the coach and has finally succeeded – is likely to play somewhere.

All four starting linebackers were expected to return, but after apparently losing his starting job at “Jack” (a combo DE/LB) Brandon Fanney left the team, while top inside reserve Prince Hall finally transferred after winning the Joe Namath Most Suspended Award three springs running. There is still plenty of talent available. In the middle linebacker spot, junior Rolando McClain is a preseason All-American who has started at this “defensive quarterback” position basically since he stepped on campus, and led the team last year with 95 tackles and 12 tackles for loss.

The other two returning starting linebackers will start somewhere, though where isn’t necessarily clear. At the weak (inside) position sophomore Dont’a Hightower was fourth on the team in tackles as a freshman, but with his size and athleticism has led the coaching staff to experiment with him at the Jack position. At the strong (outside) position, senior Cory Reamer is considered a bit willowy (6-4, 218) but is evidently held in high regard. If Hightower moves outside, he may more inside. Eryk Anders was used as a situational pass-rusher last year but has been working as the starter at Jack more often than not; right now, the default would seem to be the three returnees at their present positions and Anders replacing Fanney, with Hightower moving outside in clear passing situations.

The backups are universally sophomores and freshmen, usually with little experience outside special teams. Jerrell Harris, Chris Jordan, and Courtney Upshaw are the “veterans” of the group as true sophomores and all are talented, but being pushed by true freshmen Nico Johnson and Tana Patrick. This should be the first year since 2005 that at least one freshman hasn’t started the opener at linebacker for Alabama, but there’s every chance that at least one will be starting by the end of the season.

The defensive backfield returns three starters, but loses its leader, two-year starting safety Rashad Johnson, the team leader in interceptions and second in tackles. Johnson also directed the defensive backfield, sharing play-calling roles with McClain. However, both cornerbacks return. Javier Arenas spent most of his first two years at Alabama as a pure kick returner, but given the chance to try playing defense excelled, winning the starting cornerback position and starring, playing well enough that he’s a preseason award candidate and considered a possible first-round draft pick. On the other side, junior Kareem Jackson has started every game since he came to Alabama and suffered only on comparison to Arenas. Arenas usually moves inside to the “star” nickel position when extra defensive backs are employed. Last year, his backup, and the corner in these situations, was Marquis Johnson, now a senior, who was frequently burned. True freshman Dre Kirkpatrick is challenging Johnson, and fans, at least, hope he succeeds. Chris Rogers, like Johnson a senior, and BJ Scott, a converted wideout, are also in the mix.

At safety, Justin Woodall surprised many by stepping right into the position opposite Rashad Johnson, and played very well, intercepting four passes (second on the team) and recording 44 tackles (seventh). Heading into his senior season, he’s expected to take on some of Johnson’s leadership role. His playing role will be assumed by sophomore Robby Green, who played mostly special teams last season and who at 6-0, 180 is much slighter than your ordinary safety. Senior Ali Sharrief is the top backup, and will move around; Alabama may play three safeties much of the time in nickel and dime packages, with Sharrief moving up. Mark Barron, a prized recruit last year who played a good bit both on defense and special teams, is also in the mix, and some still expect him to eventually supplant Green.

Special Teams

Many Alabama fans were shocked to see placekicker Leigh Tiffin as a preseason All-SEC pick, because he isn’t generally considered that reliable. But there wasn’t really a returning kicker who stood out as better, and they have to pick someone there. Tiffin has worked on getting stronger to aid in kickoffs and longer fieldgoals, but his biggest problem has been consistency. In some games, he looks great, but in others he’s been a problem, especially against Arkansas two years ago, when his poor kicking cost the Tide the game, and against LSU last year, when potential game winner at the end of regulation was blocked and Alabama had to win in overtime. There’s no experience behind him and it’s his job to lose.

Punter PJ Fitzgerald is pretty faceless, but has improved in each of his years as the punter to the degree that he certainly isn’t a liability. He’s not the type of guy who booms kicks, but has been reliable and is pretty good at tactical kicking, getting the ball inside the ten or pinning returners against the sidelines. He also serves as the holder on placekicks.

Arenas returns for his fourth year as the primary return man after leading the conference in punt return yards and touchdowns last year. It’s not clear who will join him on kickoffs. Last year, it was often McCoy, for blocking purposes. This year, it could be any of the top four wide receivers. Certainly there’s an attraction to having Jones deep alongside Arenas, which really leaves the opposition with a dilemma on who to kick to.

Schedule

Alabama opens for the second year in a row with a neutral-site game in Atlanta against an ACC opponent, this year Virginia Tech. That will be a test right off; the rest of the nonconference schedule is minor-conference pushovers none of whom is supposed to be a challenge, but the Tide always seems to have one game where they play down to that level.

This is a “good schedule” year, with Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU traveling to Tuscaloosa, but the apparent rise of Ole Miss and decline of Arkansas and Tennessee changes that somewhat. As it stands, there are three top ten teams on the schedule, and Alabama plays one on the road (Mississippi), one at home (LSU) and one at a neutral site (VPI). Georgia cycles off the schedule, replaced by South Carolina, who come to Tuscaloosa in a potential trap game between the Rebels and Volunteers. Bama travels to Auburn to end the season; it’s impossible for me to predict what the Tigers will look like by then. Right now, the only game they’d maybe be projected to lose is against Ole Miss, but it remains to be seen how much the Rebels are for real and how much is hype.

UPDATE

Aug. 31: Depth Chart! Barrett Jones is the starting right guard, Mark Barron beat out Robby Green at safety after all. The offense is listed as two tight ends, with Brad Smelley the H-Back, though he’s a completely different type of player than last year’s H-Back.

2008 Alabama Crimson Tide

The Saban Era began little different than the Shula Era ended — with a 6-6 regular season and an Independence Bowl trip. This time, the Tide left glamorous Shreveport with a win, which is progress of a sort. The team suffered from some of the same problems as in 2006, in particular a tendency to start strong and finish poorly both in games and in the season as a whole — which again ended with a losing streak in November. The offseason was marked by both a top-ranked recruiting class and by embarrassing off-field incidents, in particular the discovery that runningback-turned-linebacker Jimmy Johns was a major cocaine dealer.

Offense

As has been the case the last two years, most of the returning experienced talent is on offense; Shula, an offensive coach, recruited much more strongly on that side of the ball and essentially left the defense in the hands of his coordinator. Jim McElwain comes over from Fresno to take over the offensive coordinator job. He supposedly will stress a more ball-control oriented passing game than predecessor Major Applewhite, but the offense probably won’t change too much; it’s more Saban’s offense than anyone’s.

Senior John Parker Wilson is the unquestioned quarterback, even though he regressed last season. Fans called for his head several times, in particular after the embarrassing Louisiana-Monroe loss, but Saban indicated that none of the other quarterbacks on the roster was remotely capable of playing. One of those quarterbacks, sophomore Greg McElroy, seems to have settled in as the backup and is garnering praise from the coaches for the first time. Saban has said that he won’t use touted freshman Star Jackson in a running package (ala Tim Tebow in his freshman year, or Ryan Perrilloux last year) and his chances of playing basically come down to waiting for Wilson to get hurt.

Runningback was a problem area last year. Terry Grant played well early on, but was slowed by a “sports hernia” (I am not convinced that this is a real thing yet; it just seems to have started happening a few years ago) late in the season, and is considered too small for an every-down role or between-the-tackles running anyway. Glen Coffee was the other primary ballcarrier early in the season, but was suspended for a rules violation beginning with the Tennessee game. After that game (in which Grant shone) the Tide basically had no running game to speak of, and Wilson couldn’t carry the offense on his own. This year Alabama is expected to use Grant in a “scatback” role, trying to get him the ball outside the tackles, with Coffee and someone else, such as true freshman Mark Ingram (son of the former Giant) sharing the Mr. Inside role. Like most plans, this probably won’t survive contact with the enemy. Coffee will apparently be the “starter”; he doesn’t really do anything well, but does everything okay. As many as six different backs could share carries in various alignments.

Last year’s receiving corps was basically DJ Hall (holder of virtually every school receiving record) and a couple of other seniors, so this year’s staff will be mostly new. Junior Mike McCoy started most of the time but was wildly unproductive, catching a variety of short passes, none of which he seemed to break for significant yardage; he was more valuable as a downfield blocker than a receiver. He has practiced well and is the one given in this year’s corps. The jewel in the recruiting crown, Julio Jones, will play some role; he’s already dazzled everyone in practice and is on a different physical level than everyone else. Other than McCoy, the only returnee with significant playing time is senior Nikita Stover, but he seems to have been swamped by a sea of newcomers and little-used underclassmen. The Tide will probably use a three-receiver set as its base offense, and cycle through five or six receivers most of the time; I would guess that in addition to McCoy and Jones, sophomores Darius Hanks and Earl Alexander, redshirt freshman Marquis Maze, and true freshman BJ Scott will be prominent. Hanks was the starter in the slot role in spring, but both Maze and Scott have worked there this fall. For seemingly the 25th year in a row, coaches have promised to get the tight end more involved in the offense; seniors Nick Walker and Travis McCall will share time, and both will be on the field on a high percentage of snaps, with McCall often playing a lead blocker or H-back role in place of a fullback.

The offensive line returns four starters, though it wasn’t until fairly late in the process that their exact alignment became clear. Junior Andre Smith, an Outland candidate and the team’s best player, was always a lock at left tackle, where he’s started every game the last two years. Antoine Caldwell, another all-conference performer, will play center, at least to begin with; he’s played every line position but left tackle the last two years. Fellow senior Marlon Davis is the right guard; he and Caldwell were suspended in the same textbook scandal that took out Coffee last year, and the absence of the team’s second- and third-best offensive linemen, together with the lack of depth this caused, was a prime motivator in the late-season collapse. Junior Mike Johnson was the right tackle most of last year, but is better suited inside, and will start at left guard. Right tackle has been a revolving door and a horror show for the last few seasons. Junior Drew Davis won the job in the spring and it’s hoped he’ll settle the position. Depth on the line remains a concern; a warning sign would be if Caldwell starts moving around again. Junior Evan Cardwell, who has mostly played center and started about half the time last year, is the most experienced reserve. As everywhere, there are talented freshmen who could see playing time, led by tackle Tyler Love.

Defense

Saban went with a 3-4 scheme last year partly out of necessity (a lack of experience and depth on the defensive line) and partly out of desire. He still doesn’t have quite the talent to work with, but is getting there; the biggest problem is to get any sort of pass rush from the front seven. Three players who started last year — NT Lorenzo Washington and ends Bobby Greenwood and Brandon Deaderick — return on the line, though the team’s best lineman, Wallace Gilberry, has graduated. Only Deaderick, who displaced Greenwood roughly halfway through the season and this year takes over at Gilberry’s RE spot, really has 3-4 lineman size. The mountainous Terrance Cody, a JUCO transfer, certainly does (he weighed nearly 400 pounds when he hit campus, though he’s down to about 365 now) and has apparently won the starting job at nose tackle, displacing Washington to end. Redshirt freshman Josh Chapman will back up Cody and probably play nearly as much. A number of freshmen and little-played sophomores are likely to get time, with true freshman end Marcel Dareus perhaps the man to watch; the team still lacks experienced depth here, as it does almost everywhere.

Linebacker looked to be a strong spot of the defense coming off of last season, but when fall came only sophomore middle linebacker Rolando McClain was left from last year’s unit. In addition to Jones, who was fighting for a first team spot prior to his arrest, returning OLB Zeke Knight saw his career end due to a heart ailment, and junior ILB Prince Hall, who much of last year was in the doghouse for both off-field and on-field disciplinary issues, didn’t participate in spring practice. He’s returned to the team, but has been suspended for the first three games, and who knows if he’ll stay on Saban’s good side when he’s reinstated. Outside of McClain, nothing is yet settled. Two true freshmen, Jerell Harris and Don’ta Hightower, have worked with the first team at times this fall, and it now appears that Hightower will start the opener at the weak inside position. McClain was pretty much the team’s best linebacker when he stepped on campus, bigger, faster, and more skilled than anyone else, and it’s hoped that Hightower will have a similar impact. Junior Brandon Fanney did some work with the first team early on, but is not secure in his job by any means. Junior Cory Reamer, a converted safety, seems likely to play somewhere, depending upon where the weakest spot is, though he’s more a cover man than tackler or playmaker. Little-used junior Eryk Anders and sophomore Chavis Williams are also in the mix.

The secondary, in contrast, appears set, at least its starters. Cornerback Kareem Jackson started every game as a freshman, and by the end of the season was clearly the team’s best cover man. Senior strong safety Rashad Johnson led the team in tackles and interceptions, and was first-team All-SEC. Javier Arenas, primarily a return man his first two seasons, won the starting job opposite Jackson in the spring, and hasn’t yet been pushed; he’s on the small side, but is obviously athletic and tackles well. Only junior FS Justin Woodall seems in any danger of losing his job before the season, but he too hasn’t yet been pushed. Juniors Marquis Johnson and Chris Rogers appear to be the top backups at corner, and junior Ali Sharrief at safety. As usual on this team, any number of true freshmen are likely to compete for playing time, most prominently corner Alonzo Lawrence and safety Mark Barron. Expect a lot of five- and six-DB sets, even at times when it doesn’t seem strictly warranted; last year, blitzing DBs were needed to supplement the pass rush, and the lack of good backups in the front seven meant that resting the starters basically required using d-backs. When Alabama goes into the nickel, either Arenas will slide over to the “star” slot corner position as the departed Simeon Castille did, with Johnson presumably playing outside, or Barron will enter to take the nickel spot.

Special Teams

Say what you will about Saban (got that out of your system? Good.) but he made a good call on placekicker Leigh Tiffin. Tiffin was widely lambasted for his choketastic performance in 2006 against Arkansas, but Saban gave him the regular job anyway, and he was terrific in 2007, hitting 25 of 34 fieldgoals and all his PATs, plus handling kickoffs. Punter P.J. Fitzgerald is not very good, but hasn’t been an active weakness, and seems secure in his job.

Arenas should continue as the primary punt returner and one of two kickoff returners. The other spot may go to any of several candidates, with Maze perhaps the frontrunner.

Outlook

This is a “bad schedule” year, with the Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU games all on the road. Together with a trip to Georgia, and a neutral-site game with Clemson, the schedule’s pretty rugged, and arguably would require upsets to finish better than 6-6 again. On the other hand, last year’s team was able to beat UT (handily) and led both LSU and Georgia late before running out of gas. Just as important will be avoiding the upset bug themselves and embarrassing losses like ULM last year, or Mississippi State the last two. The probation-related depth issues of previous years, largely responsible for the many, many blown leads of the last two seasons, aren’t quite solved, but Alabama at last has a full complement of scholarship players.

It seems likely that early in the season, the Tide will depend upon the offense to carry the load, with hopefully the defense catching up by midseason. Saban’s defense really requires more players than he had to work with last year; as the freshmen get up to speed, he should finally have that. This is still a building process, but I expect some progress. The team could be greatly improved and not see it show up in its record, but I think 8-4 and a bid to the Peach Bowl (nobody’s paying me to name it after a fast-food franchise) seems reasonable.

UPDATE 8/25: Depth chart announced, with Jones, Cody, and Hightower all starters. Jones will also team with Arenas on kickoffs. A minor surprise is McCall ahead of Walker at tight end, but that’s largely semantics: both will play, probably about the same number of snaps, and both will be on the field together maybe 30 percent of time. The transfer of Nick Fanuzzi makes it slightly more likely that Star Jackson will play.

2007 Alabama Crimson Tide

The Nick Saban Era begins, but as all eras do it will be with the last guy’s players for the most part. Mike Shula did a fair job of recruiting, but depth is a major concern, particularly on the defensive side of the ball where at some positions no experienced players return.

Offense

Nine starters return on offense, together with most of the top reserves. John Parker Wilson is the quarterback, coming off a season in which he set school records for yards and touchdowns. He should be a better fit for the new offense than he was for the last, though nobody actually knows what that offense will be. He may run more, but needs to stay healthy as his backup is redshirt freshman Greg McElroy and the only other scholarship quarterback around is an incoming freshman. Wilson’s two top receivers, DJ Hall and Keith Brown, also return. Hall set the school single-season record for receiving yards last year and if healthy should set basically every career mark this year. His fellow senior Brown was actually ahead of Hall’s pace until injuries struck in midseason. Receiver is the deepest position on the team with Nikita Stover, Will Oakley, and Matt Caddell all returning and I expect to see a lot of three and four receiver sets. Three experienced tight ends return. Travis McCall is the best blocker and was the starter last season. Nick Walker is a physical freak and could be a major asset in the receiving game, as could 6-7 third-teamer Charles Hoke.

Running back Ken Darby (after a catastrophic year in which he seemingly lost the ability to play football at a high level and Shula nonetheless kept giving him the ball) and fullbacks Le’Ron McClain and Tim Castille are all gone, leaving the backfield in flux. Four halfbacks are in the mix, and it’s entirely unclear who will come out on top. Jimmy Johns was at the top of the depth chart entering spring but had academic issues leading to a brief suspension. Glen Coffee, who missed last season with a knee injury, probably has the best all-around skills but lacks a single outstanding capability like Johns’ power or Terry Grant’s speed. Grant, who took a medical redshirt after three games last year, should play some sort of role but seems too small to be an every-down back. Roy Upchurch has shown flashes but has had to have surgery on each foot in successive years. Saban at LSU tended to ride whoever had the hot hand and showed no sentiment whatsoever (Darby would not have been allowed to keep starting without performing as he did last season) and likely all four backs will see significant time. No experience whatsoever returns at fullback, where walkon Baron Huber is listed as first on the depth chart. The offense was kept basically under wraps all spring and it seems likely that the Tide’s base offense will be either three receivers or two tight ends.

The starting offensive line all return, but the line was the weak spot on the team and played a major part in Shula’s firing. Andre Smith starred as a freshman and has left tackle nailed down. Heading into practice, the only other sure thing was that Antoine Caldwell would play somewhere. It seems that Caldwell will stay at center with Justin Britt and Marlon Davis the guards. Right tackle is still in flux, as oft-maligned starter Chris Capps missed spring with shoulder injury and converted guard BJ Stabler missed time with a persistent knee problem. It seems likely that someone else — perhaps Drew Davis — will take over the position.

Defense

More is known about the defensive philosophy than the offensive right now, but less about the personnel. The team is probably smaller (and faster) than Saban’s desired style, as that was departed defensive coordinator Joe Kines’ preference, and there will be a period of transistion. Alabama will switch to a 3-4, both because it’s Saban’s preferred scheme and because the team returns virtually no experience at all at defensive tackle. In fact, the starting nose guard, Brian Motley, spent last year as a redshirt practicing at center. Backup Lorenzo Washington played briefly in blowouts last season. Senior leader Wallace Gilberry returns at one end; it’s hoped that the new scheme will free him up more after last season, where he was constantly double-teamed. Bobby Greenwood, who split time last season, will start at the other end, though he’s a shade undersized for a 3-4 lineman. Brandon Deaderick, who has more prototypical size and arguably a better name, should back up both end spots, and can also slide inside if the team goes to a four-man line.

There’s little experience back at outside linebacker as well. Keith Saunders, who shared time with Greenwood last season, will play a combo rush end/linebacker spot ala Jason Taylor (or, for us old guys, Derrick Thomas). Converted wide receiver Zeke Knight showed flashes as a rush end last season before injuries took him out, and is listed at the other OLB. Prince Hall, a freshman All-American last year, will start at one inside spot and call the signals. Senior Darren Mustin, a transfer from Middle Tennessee, looks to be the starter at the other spot. The listed backups (DeMarcus Waldrop and Marcel Stamps) are both remarkably undersized at about 200 pounds, and it seems likely that someone else will emerge here.

The bulk of the defense’s experience is in the secondary, which returns two starters and several other veterans. Cornerback Simeon Castille is the defense’s most likely candidate for postseason honors after an All-SEC junior season. He was shaky in coverage early on but came on late. He’s more of a playmaker than a pure cover corner, and a switch to more zone coverage (and working with DB specialist Saban, who called himself a “graduate assistant” for the defensive backs this spring) should help him. Lionel Mitchell and Eric Grey are still in competition at the other corner, but Grey’s persistent injuries argue that Mitchell will take over that job sooner or later, though both will play. Saban will play a lot of nickel, and young players like Marquis Johnson and Kareem Jackson could make an impact. Marcus Carter returns at strong safety, while Rashad Johnson, who split time with Carter last year, moves to the free spot. Justin Woodall is the most experienced backup.

Special Teams

Jamie Christiansen missed time early in the 2006 season with a groin injury that probably cost the team the Arkansas game when legacy Leigh Tiffin missed several makeable field goals and an extra point. Christiansen will be back full strength and should handle placekicking and kickoffs. PJ Fitzgerald was unspectacular but the least of the team’s problems last year as the punter, and hasn’t been pushed so far.

Javier Arenas was the primary return man last year, and was especially effective on punt returns. Kickoff returns were a problem last year, as both Grant and Upchurch spent time flanking Arenas before getting hurt. Saban will try to use his best athletes in return roles and expect some surprises.

Coverage was a problem in 2006, especially on kickoffs, though the team grew better as the season went on. In part, this was caused by the lack of depth, which forced a lot of very young players and walkons into coverage roles, but also reflected a lack of discipline. Both should be less of a concern in 2007.

Coaching

Despite the Jesus Christ Superstar greetings for Saban in Tuscaloosa, he isn’t going to work miracles. The main thing he should bring is renewed discipline, which seemed a concern (particularly on offense) during the Shula regime. The off-field problems of several players (including Hall, Johns, and last year’s defensive stalwart Juwan Simpson) were one concern, but just as damaging were the numerous boneheaded mistakes that put the team in holes that Wilson had to dig out of. Shula’s loyalty was also a problem; while loyalty is a fine thing, it’s not exactly loyal to the other players on the team to stick by someone who is clearly struggling (like Darby and Capps) or to the players as a whole to stick by a coach who is over his head (like offensive line coach Bob Connelly). Saban’s loyalty, certainly, can be questioned, but he’ll make the tough decisions that Shula would not. The Darby situation is instructive; Saban, in similar positions at LSU, didn’t hesitate to ditch LaBrandon Toefield or Dominick Davis if they were struggling and he had a better option.

Major Applewhite was brought in from Rice as offensive coordinator and quarterback coach. The Owls played a wide-open, spread offensive style last season on their way to their first bowl appearance in about half a century, but only elements of that are expected to play a part in Tuscaloosa. Veteran NFL assistant Joe Pendry will be the offensive line coach and is also thought to take part in the offensive planning. Kevin Steele, former top FSU assistant, is the defensive coordinator, though Saban is expected to be the primary defensive mastermind.

Outlook

This is a “good schedule” year, with three of the four top rivals (Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU) visiting Tuscaloosa. Traditionally, that means that if the team is good they have a good chance at ten wins and a good bowl, but if they’re bad that means they’ll have to win games on the road against the Mississippi schools to have a decent season. Georgia also visits Tuscaloosa, taking Florida’s place on the schedule, while the Tide visits Vandy. The key stretch should come early in the season. After a tuneup with Western Carolina, the Tide makes the Nashville trip, hosts the Razorbacks and Dawgs, then plays a “neutral site” game in Jacksonville with Florida State.

All of those games are winnable, but winning them all is a tall order. If they come out of that stretch 4-1, they’ll be in great shape. My guess is that they can handle Tennessee on the Third Saturday; that’s followed by an off week and then what should be a war with LSU Nov. 3. The season, as usual, concludes with Auburn, this time at Auburn.

Overall, my guess is that the Tide will win the games in which they’re favored and pick off at least one upset in the games they’ll be underdogs (Georgia, FSU, Tennessee, LSU, Auburn). I’m saying Tennessee. That would be 8-4, probably a third place finish in the West, and a mid-level bowl — say Atlanta, for the KFC/Church’s Peach Bowl Presented by Popeye’s.

They could be a lot better. The basic theory here is that Shula was as bad of an offensive coordinator as he’s thought to be, and Connelly even worse as a line coach, and that their seemingly competent replacements, together with an experienced offense, should win games until the defense gets settled. Remember, though Alabama lost seven games last year, they led in at least five of them and lost one game by one point in overtime and two others by a field goal, so just slight improvements could seemingly lead to ten or more wins. I can’t go that far, not for a first-year staff in the SEC, but it’s happened before.

UPDATE (9/31): Things change. Brian Motley has broken his ankle, leaving the team with only two defensive tackles. Lorenzo Washington will start, backed by true freshmen. Terry Grant has apparently won the primary running back job. Jimmy Johns seemingly will be used as a combo back similar to how Shula used Tim Castille, playing both tailback and fullback, and also some H-back.

Prince Hall and Keith Brown have been suspended for the opener. Brown was already on the verge of losing his job to the surging Mike McCoy, who will start in his place. I still expect to see a lot of three and four receiver sets. True freshman Rolando McClain will start for Hall, and may battle for the full-time job afterwards. Saban won’t say what Brown and Hall did.

Mike Johnson won the right tackle spot, with Chris “Turnstile” Capps moved to backup left tackle. Saban is going with Leigh Tiffin as his starting placekicker; Jamie Christiansen is hurt, but apparently this was already in the cards. I guess Saban hasn’t seen the tapes of the Arkansas game.