2008 Vanderbilt Commodores

So, I predicted a bowl berth for the Commodores last season—a season in which they had 5 seniors starting on the offensive line and one of the best defenses in the country—but it didn’t happen. I really should have known better. I guess I’ll repeat what I’ve been able to say for the past 3 seasons now: No player on Vanderbilt’s roster was alive the last time the university’s football team appeared in a Bowl Game, the storied 1982 Hall of Fame Bowl against the storied Air Force Falcons. (Many tenured professors on Vanderbilt’s faculty had not yet come into existence the last—and only—time the Commodores won a bowl game, in 1955.)

That said, it—a bowl appearance and perhaps even a bowl victory—is going to happen soon, and it’s going to be directly attributable to Bobby Johnson, whom I’m convinced is absolutely the right coach for this school and team. Unfortunately for long-suffering Vanderbilt fans, it just isn’t going to happen this season.

Offense

Most teams’ successes start with—and last season’s Vanderbilt squad’s successes ended with—quarterback play, which should once again be the deciding factor in the Commodores’ season. RS senior Chris Nickson, who, after what seemed like a breakout sophomore campaign, even being named to the pre-season All-Conference Third Team by SEC coaches last year, battled injury (most prominently, a separated throwing shoulder suffered on the second play of the game against Alabama) and various forms of suck in a disappointing junior season, will almost certainly be the starter this year, although that’s yet to be announced by the coaches. Nickson is, theoretically, a dual-threat quarterback, capable of running and throwing, and accumulating yardage in both areas in bunches. Nickson’s primary back-up will be RS junior Mac Adams, who proved last year in filling in for Nickson at various points that he will neither hurt nor help a team win in the SEC. He’s completely unspectacular in every respect, but at least he’s not as likely to have a kill-the-team-all-by-himself game as Nickson is. If Nickson’s hurt or ineffective again this season, the offense will likely belong to Adams. Competing for third-string duties are RS sophomore Jared Funk, who has the best arm but worst football IQ of the group, and RS freshman Larry Smith, whom both coaches and fans hope will emerge to become the starting QB beginning in 2009.

At tailback, RS junior Jared Hawkins has emerged as the clear starter. Hawkins is shifty and has shown flashes of the ability to actually gain positive yardage on a regular basis, but he’s had some injury problems the past couple of seasons, so durability is an issue. Backing him up and likely getting most of the short-yardage and goal-line carries will be RS senior Jeff Jennings, a team leader but a guy who’s never regained the step or two he lost after a knee injury two years ago. Also getting carries will be RS sophomores Gaston Miller, a tiny, change-of-pace back who’s said to have the ability to make people miss in space, and Kennard Reeves, who’s bigger but is basically Just Some Guy. RS freshman Ryan Van Rensburg, a prized recruit who is said to be very Jacob Hester-esque, will also see some carries in short yardage and in single-back sets. If Vanderbilt used a Fullback, he’d fill that role, and if he didn’t have hands of stone, he’d play a lot at H-Back. So, there’s that. (RS freshman Jermaine Doster, younger brother of the late Kwane Doster, has been suspended for the season for getting into an altercation and busting out a police car window outside a club just a few yards from where his brother was shot and killed a few years ago. In at least one respect, Vanderbilt really does appear to be narrowing the gap between itself and the rest of the SEC.)

Even after losing Earl Bennett to the NFL and speedster Alex Washington to season-ending knee surgery, there’s a lot of talent at wide receiver—if anyone can get the ball to these guys, Vanderbilt might actually have the makings of an offense. The top two guys will be inspirational 6th-Year senior George Smith (who is expected to return from a stress fracture in his foot by the conference opener at home against South Carolina), a big, reliable target who always seems to be open, and RS senior Sean Walker, the team’s primary deep threat. Also logging a significant number of snaps will be RS junior Justin Wheeler and RS senior Andrew Diamonde (in his first and only year of eligibility for the Commodores after transferring from Clemson). True freshman John Cole, a real speedster ideal for the slot, and RS freshman Udom Umoh could also see time, depending on how they progress. It will also be interesting to follow the progress of RS freshman Jamie Graham, possibly the best athlete and most coveted piece of the 2007 signing class, who, after walking on and logging minutes as a reserve point guard for the Commodores’ basketball team last Spring, has been moved from defensive back to wide receiver and could also see a lot of time in the slot.

At tight end/H-back, the Commodores have at least four players who could see snaps. Vanderbilt lost its most reliable blocker for that role when Brad Allen, last year’s starter, decided to forego his final year of eligibility, having earned his degree last Spring, but his replacements are all considered more dangerous offensive weapons. Reliable RS junior Jake Bradford is the most experienced and was expected to be the starter, but thus far, it appears as though he’s been passed on the depth chart by a couple of second-year players, sophomore Austin Monahan and RS freshman Brandon Barden, both of whom are easily more athletic than Bradford but need a lot of work when it comes to blocking. RS sophomore Justin Green, widely considered to be the most talented of the group, has for some reason known only to the coaches, managed to slip to fourth on the depth chart. 6’7” guys with hands who can run don’t grow on trees, so it will be interesting to see if Green can earn back his expected playing time.

The offensive line should also be rather interesting in 2008, as not a single starter from last season returns. In more than one instance, that might not be a bad thing, as that 2007 all-senior unit, apart from All-American left tackle Chris Williams, was incredibly disappointing. This year’s line, though obviously less experienced and a bit smaller overall than the group they’re replacing, is much more athletic. The unit’s best player, RS junior Thomas Welch (a high school quarterback whom the coaches recruited to play tight end, only he kept growing without losing any athleticism) will play right tackle, because, according to the coaches, that’s where he’s most comfortable. The team’s best guard, RS junior Ryan Custer, will also play on the right side. This leads to the interesting (crazy?) scenario in which a team with four right-handed quarterbacks will nevertheless have its weakest side of the line on the left. I’d think most running plays will go right. Capable RS junior Bradley Vierling, who saw a lot of snaps at guard in place of ineffective senior Merritt Kirchoffer last season, will take over the center position this year. Filling in on the left side will be RS sophomore Riley Lauer (a bit undersized but, again, athletic) at tackle and RS sophomore Joey Bailey at guard. Also in the mix for playing time along the line will be RS junior Drew Gardner, RS junior Eric Hensley, and RS freshman Kyle Fischer, the last of whom has really impressed coaches and may well be the most talented lineman on the team after Welch.

Defense

The Commodores only return one starter from last year’s productive-if-unspectacular defensive line, and he’s not an interior lineman (yet). While there is talent—perhaps more per player along the line than in any other season since I began following Vanderbilt—a lot of it is inexperienced, and particularly on the interior, there just aren’t a lot of bodies. The lone returning starter, RS junior Steven Stone, is a good one. Perhaps the most underrated lineman in the conference, Stone is big and is equally capable of rushing the passer and stopping the run. On the other side of the ball, the “starter” will be RS junior Broderick Stewart, a speedster who remains unable keep enough weight on his frame to be an every-down end in the SEC. Stewart is an absolute terror when he’s able to pin his ears back and go for the quarterback, and he should record his share of sacks, but he won’t be in much in short yardage situations, which means that the reserve ends, RS sophomore Teriall Brannon and, particularly, sophomore Theron Kadri, will have to produce. Thought to be a project coming out of high school, Kadri was surprisingly productive as a true freshman last season, and after having put on a fair amount of weight, the coaches expect even more from him this year. On the interior, replacing 2007 seniors Theo Horrocks and Gabe Hall are RS junior Greg Billinger and RS sophomore Adam Smotherman. Billinger is big and is finally making good on the promise he showed in high school before being derailed for two seasons following a car accident. Smotherman is equally big and talented, but appears to have a degenerative knee condition which has kept him off the field far more than his abilities would have otherwise allowed. In a vacuum, there shouldn’t be much drop-off from last year’s starters to this year’s, assuming they stay healthy, but especially with Smotherman, that might be unrealistic to expect. Listed as the primary back-ups are a bunch of young guys: RS freshman T.J. Greenstone, and true freshmen Rob Lohr and Colt Nichter. (Bizarrely, Rob Ashabranner, another RS freshman who was to provide depth along the interior, was moved to the offensive line over the summer.) Because of the lack of depth, and especially if there are any significant injuries, ends Stone and Kadri may also see a good amount of time at tackle. Both are capable of holding their own at the position but more valuable along the edges.

The linebacking corps lost yet two more senior starters in Jonathan Goff and Marcus Buggs, both of whom are likely to be on NFL rosters this season. However, the talent at the linebacker position has never been stronger, and I don’t expect there to be much of a drop-off in production. Returning to start on the weak side is junior Patrick Benoist, a sure tackler who’s capable in coverage. (Battling him for playing time, once again, will be fellow RS junior Brandon Bryant, once he returns from a leg injury.) The real story will likely be the pair of second-year players at the other linebacker spots, though, RS freshman Chris Marve in the middle, and sophomore Jon Stokes on the strong side. Vanderbilt fans anxiously await the live-game debut of Marve, who at 6’0” (generously) is undersized but is generally praised by all coaches and other observers as a future star in the SEC. Stokes, only the second Rivals 4-star to ever sign with Vanderbilt, is big, fast, and smart, and he might eventually see time at defensive end, though probably not in 2008, barring some incredible rash of injuries along the line. In various back-up roles will be the previously mentioned Bryant, RS sophomore Nate Campbell (perhaps the best athlete on the team), RS junior Chris Johnson (a special-teams force), RS junior Brent Trice (a converted safety), and true Freshmen Tristan Strong and DeAndre Jones. In short, the talent Vanderbilt has had over the past decade at linebacker (NFL-ers like Shelton Quarles, Jamie Duncan, Jamie Winborn, Matt Stewart, Hunter Hillenmeyer, and the aforementioned Goff) does not appear to have dropped off in the least.

The secondary, however, which returns all four starters (five, if you include the nickel back) is unquestionably the strength of the team. The star of the unit is junior D.J. Moore, a pre-season All-American and a guy projected by many as a first-round pick in the NFL Draft this coming offseason. Moore is fast and agile, and he has fantastic ball skills—he’s easily the program’s best defensive back since Corey Chavous. (Moore will also see a lot of time on offense, as the coaches try to use him like a Champ Bailey, hopefully without killing him.) Opposite Moore is Myron Lewis, who led the conference in pass break-ups last season and, at 6’3”, is a defensive backs coach’s dream, physically. The team’s designated nickel back, as he has been for the past three seasons, is RS junior Darlron Spead, a playmaker with ball skills similar to those of Moore. At safety, the Commodores return underrated RS senior Reshard Langford, possibly the hardest hitter in the conference and the unquestioned leader of the defense, and RS junior Ryan Hamilton, a solid tackler who rarely finds himself out of position. Also logging minutes in the secondary will be RS seniors Josh Allen and Jared Fagan, RS junior Joel Caldwell (a former starter at cornerback as a freshman who was moved to safety after the emergence of Moore and Lewis last season), and true Freshmen Casey Hayward (easily the best athlete of the 2008 signing class, and someone whom the coaches will have difficulty keeping off the field) and Sean Richardson (who’s had perhaps the best Summer of anyone on the defense).

Special Teams

Returning at kicker is senior Bryant Hahnfeldt, a kid with a very strong leg who after a great freshman season has battled injury and then resultant confidence issues ever since. He’s reportedly had an outstanding Spring and Summer, but we won’t know until the real games start whether he’s back to his original reliable self. Hahnfeldt has cost the team more than one game over the past couple of season with misses, but the coaches appear to be optimistic that such performances are behind him.

Scheduled to handle the punting duties is junior Brett Upson, whom I had a very low opinion of before actually looking at the statistics. He’s not great, but he was in the middle third of punters in the conference last year, which should be good enough, and one would expect him to be in a similar range, if not better, in 2008. However, he’s battled some leg injuries this offseason, and it appears as though Hahnfeldt, who handled some of the punting duties as a freshman, may open the season on double-duty for Vanderbilt. What’s really hurt the Commodores in the past few seasons is the kick coverage unit, which was seemingly compounded even further last season by the bizarre rugby-style technique installed by the coaches, which looked poorly organized and ill-suited to Upson’s abilities. The kick coverage (including that on kick-offs), in some form or fashion, simply must improve for the team to have success. Frankly, I hear about improvement in this area every offseason, but until it actually shows up in the games, I’ll remain pessimistic about the punting game as a whole.

Alex Washington, referenced above, was scheduled to be the primary return man before he blew out his ACL, but with his forced absence, the coaches might be forced to use their best weapon, D.J. Moore, in yet another type of football situation. It’s risky to expose him to so many hits, but I think Washington’s injury might be a blessing in disguise, as Moore is simply electrifying with the ball in his hands. Also seeing time returning kicks will likely be Graham and Cole, both of whom would seem to be ideally suited for the role. Cole, in particular, has wowed coaches in workouts and practices at the position.

Outlook

On offense, as I alluded to above, it really all comes down to Nickson. Yes, it will be nice if the line gels and does what the coaches believe the unit is capable of doing, and it will help if Hawkins stays healthy and produces at the level of which he’s previously shown flashes, but if Nickson is short-hopping receivers in Clausen-esque fashion like he did for much of last season, the offense simply won’t score enough (or log enough possession time) to win games, no matter how great the defense is.

With any health luck along the interior defensive line, this could be a truly special defense. The talent is there all over the field, and if the tackles can hold up against the run, I would expect the Commodores to be one of the better scoring defenses in the country in 2008. Quite frankly, they’ll generate a pass rush if for no other reason than the linemen will have a lot of time to get to the quarterback because the receivers won’t be able to get open very quickly.

The special teams are a huge question mark. Moore, Cole, and Graham could really help in the return game, but if the kicking and coverage units don’t improve on their woeful performances of the last couple of seasons, this aspect will once again cost the Commodores a game or two over the course of the season.

Oh, and if D.J. Moore gets hurt, we’re absolutely screwed.

The non-conference schedule includes games at Miami (OH) and Wake Forest, and home games against Rice and Duke. In the SEC, we play South Carolina, Auburn, Florida, and Tennessee at home, while we leave Nashville for games in Starkville, Oxford, Athens, and Lexington.

Games in which VU should be a substantial underdog: Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, at Georgia.

Games in which VU will be an underdog with a shot: at Wake, South Carolina, at Mississippi State, at Ole Miss, at Kentucky.

Games which VU really has no business losing: at Miami, Rice, Duke.

I’d bet against us against Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Georgia, Wake Forest, and Mississippi State. I think we’re very capable of winning the other six—we actually have more talent than Ole Miss; Kentucky lost, like, all of its players from last year; and we dominated South Carolina, which has no quarterback, on the road last year without Nickson—but I’m sure we’ll blow it against at least one and probably two of them. The opening four-game stretch—at Miami; South Carolina; Rice; at Ole Miss—really is key; if we could manage a 3-1 record against those schools, we’d have a real shot at 6 wins.

Anyway, I’m looking for a 5-7 season, with 4-8 being more likely than 6-6. The talent gap is narrowing, and there are legitimate encouraging signs all across the roster, but I’m probably going to have trouble actually predicting a bowl berth again until we prove we can do it.

–Stu

2007 Vanderbilt Season Preview

If this isn’t the year Vanderbilt finally breaks its bowl drought, I may give up hoping that it will ever happen while the school remains in the SEC. (And I don’t think VU will be leaving the SEC anytime soon.)

 

This year’s team features 18 returning starters—9 on offense, 7 on defense, and both kickers—and, unlike previous iterations of Commodore Football, that’s actually a good thing. Coach Bobby Johnson and his staff, now entering Year 6 at the helm, have, in addition to bringing in a few more higher-profile recruits than did previous staffs, done a remarkable job of finding under-the-radar types who are capable of playing—and playing well—in the toughest division of the toughest conference in college football. In addition to an experienced roster and an increased talent level, Vanderbilt’s schedule this season is one that should prove favorable to a bowl run. The team plays 12 games this season, and 8 of them are at home. Further, what look to be the 4 toughest opponents it will face this season will be played on the road. While for an elite school, this makes for a “bad schedule year”—you want your toughest opponents coming to your place, because the goal is going undefeated, and you figure you can handle the weaker teams on the road—I think the opposite is true for Vanderbilt, who doesn’t stand a great chance of beating the toughest opponents anyway and should be able to maximize its home-field advantage, what little there is in Nashville, by playing the least-strong teams there.

 

Schedule (conference games in bold, away games designated with a “*“)

 

Richmond

Alabama

Ole Miss

(bye)

Eastern Michigan

Auburn*

Georgia

South Carolina*

Miami-OH

Florida*

Kentucky

Tennessee*

Wake Forest

Quarterbacks

 

Chris Nickson, a RS Junior who was recently voted onto the third team for pre-season All-SEC by the coaches, will lead the team in this, his second season as the starter. Last year, many may not realize that he finished 4th in the SEC in total offense per game (third among returning players), averaging 173.8 yards passing and 57.8 yards on the ground, while throwing 15 TDs and rushing for another 9. A dynamic athlete with a strong arm, Nickson showed flashes of brilliance as a Sophomore, but the coaches hope he will improve on his 2006 accuracy and decision making. Boasting an efficiency rating in the lower half of conference starters last year, the focus in offseason practices has been on increasing his 54.8% completion percentage and decreasing the number of turnovers he surrenders (13 INTs, ___ fumbles lost). Both will be important to the team’s success in 2007.

 

Talent-wise, QB depth is generally thought to be a position of real strength for the Commodores, though the performances of backups Mac Adams (another smart dual-threat passer, this one a RS Sophomore) and Richard Kovalcheck (a Senior and former highly-touted recruit who transferred from Arizona last offseason under the short-lived rule allowing players to do so without sitting out a year) have left a lot to be desired in practice, with neither player showing the sort of decision making that playing against SEC defenses requires. If Nickson is lost to injury for any significant time, this will be a real problem.

 

It smacks of cliché, but the fate of the VU season will probably be determined in large part by how well their QB plays. If the team is to make it to a bowl, Nickson must remain healthy and improve on his accuracy and decision making. The coaches seem to believe this will happen, and I must confess that I am of the same opinion—this kid has a chance to have a breakout season and be a special player in this conference.

 

Tailbacks

 

Another key to Vanderbilt’s season will be not having Chris Nickson lead the team in rushing again.

 

That will depend primarily on two players, Cassen Jackson-Garrison and Jeff Jennings. The former, a Senior with SEC size and speed but questionable vision and aggressiveness, was the starter for all of last year, rushing for only 614 yards and 5 scores, on 4 yards per carry. The latter, a RS Junior who blew out his knee at the end of the 2005 campaign and missed all of last season, is probably the more talented player—most fans would certainly like to see him get the majority of the carries in 2007—and seems to have fully recovered from the injury. Coach Johnson has said that the RB duties will be split between the two, but I have to think that the situation is a fluid one, and if one of the two emerges (almost certainly Jennings, if either) once the real games start, he’ll become the featured back.

 

The only other RB who, barring injury, is likely to see any significant action is RS Sophomore Jared Hawkins. Hawkins is smallish, but he showed flashes of game-breaking ability last season, when he averaged nearly 7 yards per carry in 43 attempts. Many fans have been clamoring for a year for Hawkins to get more touches, and the primary reason he doesn’t would appear to be his tendency to fumble, which, according to reports, has not improved a great deal in practice. Still, Hawkins should see the field and may have a say in how Vandy’s season goes.

 

Receivers

 

The main story here is, of course, Earl Bennett, one of the top receivers in the country and one of the players on nearly everyone’s All-America teams. Known (by fans and NFL scouts) for his great hands and sharp route-running, the Junior from Alabama, as most know by now, is on pace to break the SEC career marks for receptions and yardage, after combining for 161 catches and 2,022 yards (and 15 TDs) over his first two seasons. Thought by some to be a fluke after his first season in Nashville, Earl put his name on the national stage to stay in 2006 by having an even better season than in 2005, this time with defenses geared towards containing him without Jay Cutler throwing to him. As last season showed, Bennett’s production will be there, regardless of what the rest of the receiving corps is able to provide.

 

There is in 2007 a lot of optimism surrounding those other receivers. Though starter Marlon White graduated, the overall talent of the unit seems to have gotten better this year, with another year of experience. Vanderbilt’s primary offensive set will now include 3 WRs (last year, the H-Back set was the most common), so the unit will feature two new starters, George Smith (a RS Junior who has battled back from a spinal disease and, at 6′3″/200 lbs, should be a strong compliment for Bennett) and Sean Walker (a Junior and the fastest of the VU receivers, he has big-play ability and should be able to stretch the field, something Commodore pass-catchers have struggled with in the past). The second wave of receivers is also quite talented, if inconsistent, and inclludes Justin Wheeler, Bryant Anderson and Alex Washington, all of whom should see the field plenty in 2007.

 

Tight Ends/H-Backs

 

Brad Allen returns as the starter at TE for Vanderbilt. Allen was highly regarded coming out of high school but has yet to materialize into the weapon the coaches thought they were getting. He should be pushed hard by his backups, as Vanderbilt has a number of very big, athletic players at the position, led by Justin Green and Jake Bradford. As the strongest blocker of a crowded, talented group, however, Allen is likely to keep his starting job, at least for this year, even if he doesn’t progress as a pass-catcher.

 

VU enters 2007 without its H-Back, Steven Bright, from a season ago, and he will be difficult to replace, as evidenced by the change in offensive sets. Still, while Bright was probably the most versatile player on the team (a former QB for the Commodores, he had good speed and great hands, and he was a strong blocker), he had an injury-filled career in Nashville, so the staff got used to preparing gameplans that didn’t include him. Expect the H-Back, if used much at all, to come from that same group of TEs.\

 

Offensive Line

As a unit, this is probably the team’s greatest strength, and it’s certainly the main reason I and many other fans are optimistic about the 2007 season.

 

The starters are all Seniors–four of them, red-shirts–with a great deal of size (averaging 6′5″/307 lbs) and, perhaps more importantly, experience. The real stars on the O-Line are the two Tackles, RT Brian Stamper (in his sixth year at Vandy after being granted a medical red shirt by the NCAA–after his petition had initially been rejected by the SEC–for last season), and LT Chris Williams (perhaps the best individual lineman in the conference), both of whom stand a good chance to play on Sundays next year. Rounding out the line are Center Hamilton Holliday (the only true Senior of the bunch) and Guards Josh Eames and Merritt Kirchoffer, though Kirchoffer is being pushed by RS Sophomore Brad Vierling for playing time.

 

As for depth, it’s also very strong and relatively experienced. Guys like Vierling, Thomas Welch (T), and Ryan Custer (G) should also see a fair amount of playing time–they saw it last year because of a rash of injuries–though, if healthy, the 5 Senior starters will take the vast majority of snaps.

 

All in all, this group of linemen should consistently at least break even, if not win, the battle against defensive fronts around the league, and in this conference, that’s really saying something. Their play will be crucial if there is to be any improvement in the running game–though, admittedly, the problem in that area last year was hardly the fault of this unit–and should provide Chris Nickson with the time he needs to make better decisions and more accurate throws. Vanderbilt may actually be able to wear down opposing defenses, something that hasn’t been the case very often in recent seasons in Nashville.

 

Defensive Line

 

The starters on the D-Line are very capable, but the real issue with this unit is depth, particularly up the middle.

 

At one End position, Curtis Gatewood, a RS Senior, had a breakout campaign in 2006 (49 tackles, 8 TFL, 7 sacks) and looks to build on that in 2007. One of the hardest workers on defense, Gatewood can rush the passer and stop the run. As evidence of his disruptive presence, he finished last season with 4 forced fumbles, good for third in the conference. At the other End position, manned by solid-but-unspectacular Chris Booker a season ago, 2 RS Sophomores, Steven Stone and Broderick Stewart, will be used to try to approximate the contributions of Gatewood on the other edge. Stone will be listed as the starter and he is the better run stopper of the two. Stewart, a speedster who showed flashes of real ability last year, is much smaller in size and, at least for the time being–until he can prove that he won’t be consistently bowled over or otherwise made irrelevant on run defense–will serve as the pass-rush specialist.

 

True Freshman Theron Kadri, a raw athlete with size and a big-time motor, and RS Freshman Teriall Brannon, another big-but-unrefined athlete, will provide depth. The coaches would obviously prefer not to have to rely on these younger players, and barring injury, they shouldn’t have to much, given Gatewood’s ability to play every down.

 

As for the interior line, depth is a real concern even with a completely healthy unit. The starters, Senior Theo Horrocks and RS Senior Gabe Hall, should be fine–they’re both big, relatively athletic guys–at least as far as stopping the run is concerned, though they aren’t expected to generate much pressure on the opposing QB. Horrocks, in particular, is a very good player (like Gatewood, he has a nose for the ball, having forced 3 fumbles in 2006) and one of the more vocal team leaders.

 

Behind those two, though, it gets dicy. Greg Billinger, a RS Freshman, is the primary backup. A UGA commitment before deciding to renege and sign with the Commodores a couple years ago, Billinger is certainly a talent, but the concern with him is his inexperience. Adam Smotherman, another big and talented RS Freshman, was to be the fourth member of the tackle rotation, but in addition to his obvious inexperience, he’s suffered through a lingering knee injury all offseason and will not be at full strength to start the season. After him, the DTs aren’t really even worth mentioning by name, at least not in 2007.

 

Linebackers

 

This is the real strength of the Commodore defense (as usual), and is led by MLB Jon Goff, a RS Senior and the player, along with WR Earl Bennett and LT Chris Williams, receiving the most attention from NFL scouts. Coming off a season in which he recorded 93 tackles, good for 7th in the conference and 2nd among returning players, Jon should–and, frankly, will have to–go a long way toward solving the run-stopping problem likely to be created by the lack of depth on the interior line.

 

On the strong side, RS Senior Marcus Buggs returns and is as reliable as they come. Though undersized (listed at 5′11″/228), the converted safety has the speed to hold his own in coverage, and his production is very good (50 tackles, 10.5 TFL in 2006)–the coaches don’t have to worry about the Sam position. On the weak side, Brandon Bryant–a RS Sophomore who received perhaps more praise from coaches during offseason workouts and practices than any other player–will fill in for Kevin Joyce, who graduated after last season. A sure tackler with SEC speed, Bryant may well be better than Joyce, who had 59 tackles, was in 2006.

 

The Commodores also boast quality depth at LB, as RS Sophomore Patrick Benoist (who was in a fierce battle with Bryant for the Will starting job prior to injuring his ankle) and RS Freshman Nate Campbell should see a lot of action, in addition to True Freshman Jon Stokes, the most highly regarded nationally of VU’s incoming Freshmen.

 

Defensive Backs

 

Vanderbilt returns all 4 starters in its secondary from a year ago, and the coaches are hoping that extra year of experience will lead to on-the-field improvement, particularly with the Cornerbacks.

 

Last year, Sophomores DJ Moore and Marlon Lewis showed flashes of ability, as well as their inexperience–they were true Freshmen in 2006, obviously–in giving up far too many big passing plays. Both are said to have had exceptional camps, though, and should hopefully show that improvement on the field. Moore, in particular, shows the kind of athletic ability needed to be a shut-down corner in the SEC and which, quite honestly, Vanderbilt has not featured in a decade. With the added experience, too, the coaches are expected to allow the Moore and Lewis to play closer to the line of scrimmage, thereby limiting the number of short, easy passes opposing offenses were able to complete with some frequency in 2006, when the corners frequently gave 8-yard cushions before the snap.

 

Leading the reserve CBs–and likely to see a lot of time on the field in the Nickel formation, which the Commodores frequently employ–is RS Sophomore Darlron Spead, who has the ball skills needed to create turnovers. Other reserve CBs include two upperclassmen, RS Juniors Josh Allen and Jared Fagan, who are listed on the second string but are expected by most fans to be bumped down in the pecking order as the year goes on by some of the more talented younger players. In particular, a name to watch out for is Jamie Graham, a true Freshman and local product who is a dynamic athlete–he may well play for Kevin Stallings’ basketball team, too–and who, the coaches feel, is worthy of seeing as much playing time as possible.

 

Unlike the CBs, the Commodore Safeties have little to prove. SS Reshard Langford, a RS Junior, is among the hardest hitters in the league and does a good job protecting the middle of the field in addition to helping out with the run. Though he isn’t particularly fast and does not have sure hands–he dropped more than one interception last season–his role on the team does not require either. In my opinion, Langford is probably the most underappreciated player on Vanderbilt’s roster, by outsiders. He is very much like UGA’s Greg Blue, who graduated a couple years ago and whom I also saw play a lot of football. I’ll be shocked if Reshard doesn’t play in the NFL. At FS, RS Sophomore Ryan Hamilton will enter his second year as a starter. What Langford lacks in ball skills and speed, Hamilton makes up for; in addition, he is a sure tackler, though, at 6′2″/210, he could still stand to add some weight to his lanky frame.

 

Backing up the safeties will be Sophomore Brent Trice and RS Sophomore Joel Caldwell, who played as a CB last year before being moved. Trice is a playmaker, one of the best athletes on the roster–another guy the coaches are looking to find a way to get on the field–and Caldwell has reportedly done quite well in the transition to Safety.

 

Special Teams

 

This was the real bugaboo of the 2006 Vanderbilt Commodores–lost to Arkansas by 2 after missing a last-second FG; lost to Ole Miss by 7, despite outgaining them 400-179, after two missed FGs, a fumbled punt and a sack taken by the punter; lost to Florida by 6 after having 2 punts blocked. Add to that Vanderbilt’s abysmal kick coverage, ranking ___ in the nation last season, and it’s not hard to see what area of this football team needs the most improvement over last season.

 

Placekicker Bryant Hahnfeldt looks to rebound from a subpar Sophomore season to the form he showed as a freshman in 2005. Last season, the kicker, recovering from a knee injury sustained at the end of 2005, never found a rhythm and connected on only 8 of 17 FG attempts. Reports indicate, however, that Hahnfeldt has been very strong this offseason, kicking with much greater accuracy and connecting on 50+-yard attempts with regularity. Assuming he can get over any residual mental effects from the 2006 season, there’s no reason that Hahnfeldt shouldn’t be a weapon for the Commodores in 2007.

 

The punting situation must also be shored up. Last season, Freshman Brett Upson was only 10th in the league in punting average–37.4–but that wasn’t even the main problem with the unit, which was consistently exposed for the poor blocking that resulted in several game-changing blocked punts. This year, the coaches have opted to keep several starters in on the special teams units, so, while the injury risk for these guys increases, the protection for the kickers is expected to be greatly improved.

 

When it comes to returning kicks, the main issue focused on this offseason has been hanging on to the football, something Vanderbilt’s returners, particularly those returning punts, have been seemingly unable to do over the past couple of seasons. Reserve WR Alex Washington, who, despite having speed and quickness, struggled mightily when given the chance last season, is listed as the primary kick returner to start the season, much to the surprise of most onlookers. Earl Bennett may also field punts–his hands are sure, and he’s proven to be quite elusive–but the staff is leery of exposing their star to injury. The name to watch for here, as in the secondary, is Freshman Jamie Graham. He returned kicks and punts in high school and is a good bet to be doing the same for Vanderbilt at some point during the season.

 

Kick coverage was also a problem for the Commodores in 2006, as opponents too frequently began drives with good field position. That could be an even greater problem this season, with the new NCAA rule moving the ball 5 yards back on kickoffs. Still, with Hahnfeldt’s leg–one of the stronger in the conference when healthy–back at full strength, most coaches believe the coverage should improve this season. Punt coverage may still be an adventure. On kickoffs, Patrick Benoist, the reserve LB set to miss a game or two with an injured ankle, is the main gunner, whereas on punts, Freshman reserve LB Jon Stokes, who will serve as the team’s long snapper, is said to be very strong.

 

2007 Outlook

As mentioned, this could–no, should–be a special year for Vanderbilt’s football team, which is poised to break its 24-year bowl drought. (No player on the team was alive the last time the University played football past November.)

 

The roster is deep and experienced, and the schedule sets up favorably for getting to the 6-win mark. In no particular order, here is a summary of the major issues coming into the season–that is, those questionable areas of the team on which the success of this season may well hinge:

• Nickson’s continued progression and health

• A more consistent ground game from those not named ‘Chris Nickson’

• Health on the D-Line

• Cut-down in number of big plays given up by the CBs

• Improvement in all aspects of the kicking game–kicking, kick coverage, blocking, and returning

• Turnover margin (not directly referenced anywhere above, but the team was -2 in 2006, and that has to improve–Nickson needs to be more careful with the football, our DBs need to catch more of the balls they get their hands on, and our kick returners have to keep their eyes on the freaking ball)

All of these are important, but I think Nickson’s health and improved special teams are the two most critical to a good season for the Commodores. And I think the Alabama game, in Week 2, will be the biggest game of the season. If we win that game, I’m very confident we’ll go bowling; if we don’t, I’m very confident we won’t. That game, in addition to providing one of the better opportunities to pick up a win, will demonstrate whether we’re ready to win.

 

Now, as for my predictions:

 

I see 4 games that we have absolutely no business losing–Richmond, Eastern Michigan, Miami-OH, and Ole Miss. We are demonstrably better than each of these teams (though obviously less so in the case of Ole Miss), and even the Vandy Alum in me won’t let me pick against the Commodores in any of these games. That’s 4 wins.

 

I see 2 games that we have no realistic shot at winning–Auburn and Florida. While I could make a case that upsets are possible in both games (Auburn–it’s in the middle of a brutal stretch for them, and we could get their let-down effort; Florida–we’ve played the Gators really close the past couple of years and those were much more experienced Florida teams), predicting wins in either strikes me as insane. That’s 2 losses.

 

Now, the other six games, the swing games. I don’t think there’s any way Vandy wins all 6 of these, but I think we’ll win some (and could win any); I rank them here in order of increasing likelihood of victory, with rationales:

 

South Carolina–We weren’t able to beat these guys under Spurrier before the top-flight recruits started pouring into Columbia, so I don’t see us beating them in their supposed breakout season. However, they’ve had a good bit of offseason turmoil, Blake Mitchell is incredibly shaky, and prognosticators are often wrong. But I just don’t see us winning this one–they seem to have our number. Predicted loss.

 

Tennessee–Even if there’s very little left for the Commodores to play for at the end of the season, the players will be more up for this game than any other. And UT has a lot of questions coming into this season (Who plays WR? Who plays DT? Who stays out of prison?). With that said, I can’t see winning consecutive games in Knoxville. We lose.

 

Georgia–This one’s pretty tough, because I am not buying UGA this year. Their weaknesses–inexperienced O-Line and thin secondary–would seem to play into Vandy’s hands, since they probably won’t be able to expose the Commodore D-Line, and Nickson will presumably be able to have success in the air. If we hadn’t beaten them last year (as I predicted would happen, FWIW), I would definitely pick us to do so this year. It’s just a strong matchup for us, at least on paper. But we did beat them last year, and they’re our homecoming opponent this year–I think they come to Nashville with revenge on their minds and, though it’s close, I think they probably leave with a win.

 

Alabama–Another tough one, though I’ve made my feelings on what the outcome will be well known. While Alabama has more highly-recruited players, a lot of it, especially on defense, is very inexperienced. Combine the general inexperience on D with the fact that Saban is converting to the 3-4 scheme–and we catch them in Week 2–and I think that bodes very well for VU. Also, we return more players and we barely lost in Tuscaloosa a year ago. While actually beating Bama has proved to be much easier said than done for Vandy in the past, and the Saban Factor is hard to ignore, I think we get ‘em this year. Win.

 

Wake Forest–Wake, defending its ACC championship, is obviously a very good team, but I think we have better players. I honestly don’t know a lot about the Demon Deacons, but I think we should be able to beat them in Nashville, even considering their great 2006 season. Frankly, I’m probably underrating this team, but I just am not able to imagine a world where Wake Forest is a tougher opponent than Alabama or Georgia. Not much analysis here, obviously, just a gut feeling–win.

 

Kentucky–Yes, they won 8 games last year, and they have a potent offense, featuring one of the best QBs in the country. But that defense is horrible . Truly awful. We can score with them, and I like our defense’s chances of slowing their offense down a lot better than I like their defense’s chances of slowing Vandy’s down. Also, I seriously doubt they’ll be able to duplicate that +15 turnover margin they produced a year ago, which was a big reason for the successful season. We will win.

 

So, it looks like I’m predicting a 7-5 (bowl-eligible!) season, which feels about right. I think 6-6 (still bowl-eligible!!!) is probably equally likely, and there’s always the Vandy Factor, which brings all those sub-.500 records into play, too. Though legitimately possible, I believe, I dare not think about predicting anything north of 7 wins.

 

Whatever happens, it promises to be an emotional year for the Vanderbilt faithful.